数据融合技术在机载警戒雷达中的应用

介绍了机载警戒雷达主要计算机软件配置项及其功能,给出了机载警戒雷达软件控制与信息流程图,分析、比较了现有机载警戒雷达软件功能和JDL-USER数据融合模型功能.设计了融合处理软件架构,介绍了融合处理软件组成模块和功能需求,阐述了融合处理软件处理流程以及航迹融合流程与算法,实现了一次、二次雷达的航迹融合功能,还分析了数据融合技术在机载警戒雷达中的未来应用方向.     

基于PSO和SVM的上市公司财务危机预警模型

提出了一种将经过改进的离散粒子群(PSO)算法和支持向量机(SVM)相结合的算法,以选择最优的指标集并用于财务危机预警。将此算法应用于上市公司的数据,检验模型提前3年的预警效果,最后与常见的主成分分析方法与SVM相结合的模型进行对比,结果证明了PSO-SVM模型的合理性和优越性。     

Residents’ Reactions to Earthquake Early Warnings in Japan

This article empirically examines the effectiveness of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Japan based on experiences of residents who received warnings before earthquake shaking occurred. In Study 1, a survey (N = 299) was conducted to investigate residents’ experiences of, and reactions to, an EEW issued in Gunma and neighboring regions on June 17, 2018. The main results were as follows. (1) People's primary reactions to the EEW were mental, not physical, and thus motionless. Most residents stayed still, not for safety reasons, but because they were focusing on mentally bracing themselves. (2) Residents perceived the EEW to be effective because it enabled them to mentally prepare, rather than take physical protective actions, before strong shaking arrived. (3) In future, residents anticipate that on receipt of an EEW they would undertake mental preparation as opposed to physical protective actions. In Study 2, a survey (N = 450) was conducted on another EEW issued for an earthquake offshore of Chiba Prefecture on July 7, 2018. Results were in line with those of Study 1, suggesting that the findings described above are robust. Finally, given people's lack of impetus to undertake protective action on receipt of an EEW, this article discusses ways to enhance such actions.     

Security of Separated Data in Cloud Systems with Competing Attack Detection and Data Theft Processes

Empowered by virtualization technology, service requests from cloud users can be honored through creating and running virtual machines. Virtual machines established for different users may be allocated to the same physical server, making the cloud vulnerable to co‐residence attacks where a malicious attacker can steal a user's data through co‐residing their virtual machines on the same server. For protecting data against the theft, the data partition technique is applied to divide the user's data into multiple blocks with each being handled by a separate virtual machine. Moreover, early warning agents (EWAs) are deployed to possibly detect and prevent co‐residence attacks at a nascent stage. This article models and analyzes the attack success probability (complement of data security) in cloud systems subject to competing attack detection process (by EWAs) and data theft process (by co‐residence attackers). Based on the suggested probabilistic model, the optimal data partition and protection policy is determined with the objective of minimizing the user's cost subject to providing a desired level of data security. Examples are presented to illustrate effects of different model parameters (attack rate, number of cloud servers, number of data blocks, attack detection time, and data theft time distribution parameters) on the attack success probability and optimization solutions.     

Warning Triggers in Environmental Hazards: Who Should Be Warned to Do What and When?

Determining the most effective public warnings to issue during a hazardous environmental event is a complex problem. Three primary questions need to be answered: Who should take protective action? What is the best action? and When should this action be initiated? Warning triggers provide a proactive means for emergency managers to simultaneously answer these questions by recommending that a target group take a specified protective action if a preset environmental trigger condition occurs (e.g., warn a community to evacuate if a wildfire crosses a proximal ridgeline). Triggers are used to warn the public across a wide variety of environmental hazards, and an improved understanding of their nature and role promises to: (1) advance protective action theory by unifying the natural, built, and social themes in hazards research into one framework, (2) reveal important information about emergency managers’ risk perception, situational awareness, and threat assessment regarding threat behavior and public response, and (3) advance spatiotemporal models for representing the geography and timing of disaster warning and response (i.e., a coupled natural‐built‐social system). We provide an overview and research agenda designed to advance our understanding and modeling of warning triggers.     

Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Severe Storm Displays

The National Weather Service has adopted warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area than its previous county‐wide warnings. However, these polygons are not defined in terms of numerical strike probabilities (p_s). To better understand people's interpretations of warning polygons, 167 participants were shown 23 hypothetical scenarios in one of three information conditions—polygon‐only (Condition A), polygon + tornadic storm cell (Condition B), and polygon + tornadic storm cell + flanking nontornadic storm cells (Condition C). Participants judged each polygon's p_s and reported the likelihood of taking nine different response actions. The polygon‐only condition replicated the results of previous studies; p_s was highest at the polygon's centroid and declined in all directions from there. The two conditions displaying storm cells differed from the polygon‐only condition only in having p_s just as high at the polygon's edge nearest the storm cell as at its centroid. Overall, p_s values were positively correlated with expectations of continuing normal activities, seeking information from social sources, seeking shelter, and evacuating by car. These results indicate that participants make more appropriate p_s judgments when polygons are presented in their natural context of radar displays than when they are presented in isolation. However, the fact that p_s judgments had moderately positive correlations with both sheltering (a generally appropriate response) and evacuation (a generally inappropriate response) suggests that experiment participants experience the same ambivalence about these two protective actions as people threatened by actual tornadoes.     

再论百年来宁波方言精照见晓组细音声母的演变

穆麟德的《宁波方言的音节》采取符号记音法，其中精照见晓组ky、ts、c三类细音声符的音值及其演变是研究争议的焦点，利用穷尽统计法与音类比较法，对三类符号的音值研究进行再分析，进而探讨其百年来的演变，*ky[kj]＞[?]的辅音转移在百年前就已完成，ts的细音腭化为舌面音[?]要晚于见晓组细音ky演变为舌面音[?]的时间，词汇扩散机制触发了止开三舌尖化的残留形式tsi演变为[?i]的过程，同时ts的音位变体c的舌叶音特征百年来逐渐式微。     

非语言交际中体态语的多维思索

体态语是通过人的姿态和表情来传递信息的非语言符号。它是一种语义非常丰富的交际手段,是人脑活动最真实的显现。体态语同语言同时参与交际过程,共同完成交际活动。本文论述了体态语的特征及功能。     

中国海洋经济景气指数研究

针对中国海洋经济景气循环问题,基于年度海洋经济监测指标,采用国际上流行的景气分析和监测预警方法,设计构建了中国海洋经济监测的先行、同步、滞后指标,并计算了海洋经济综合预警指数。通过对中国1999—2008年的海洋经济波动的实证分析发现：海洋经济从1999年一直处于扩张阶段,2001—2005年综合预警指数连续5年在绿灯区中部运行,而2008年综合预警指数上涨4.0,进入黄灯区运行,说明中国海洋经济进入了一个新的快速发展阶段,但同时有发展过热的征兆。     

证券公司失败预警研究

 内容提要：一系列国内外证券公司（投资银行）的失败危机表明,及早有效地对证券公司（投资银行）的失败进行预警极为重要。本文在借鉴国内外建立企业失败预警模型的理论和经验的基础上,以我国证券公司为研究对象,将证券公司财务失败界定为证券公司破产或被证券监管部门采取风险处置措施,选取了24家财务失败证券公司和24家财务健康证券公司为样本,有针对性地选取和设计了一系列指标,对比应用了Logit方法、Probit方法和判别分析方法,最终选用Logit方法成功建立了证券公司失败预警模型。