财政幻觉假说的实证检验

财政幻觉假说是公共选择理论下解释政府规模增长的理论之一。依据财政幻觉假说的经验方程，将“财政幻觉”分解为“赤字幻觉”与“预期幻觉”，以中国1978～2004年的年度数据，采用邹氏转折点检验、协整分析和误差修正模型，对“财政幻觉”与政府规模增长的关系进行实证检验。结果表明，“财政幻觉”是中国政府规模增长的原因之一，其中“赤字幻觉”的存在未得到显著证实，但“预期幻觉”对政府规模有正的显著影响。     

Fleet and revenue management in car rental companies: A literature review and an integrated conceptual framework

This paper aims to present, define and structure the car rental fleet management problem, which includes operational fleet management issues and problems traditionally studied under the revenue management framework. The car rental business has challenging and distinctive characteristics, which are mainly related with fleet and decision-making flexibility, and that render this problem relevant for academic research and practical applications. Three main contributions are presented: an in-depth literature review and discussion on car rental fleet and revenue management issues, a novel integrating conceptual framework for this problem, and the identification of research directions for the future development of the field.     

Exploring Neglected Dimensions of Social Policy: The SDW, Fiscal Welfare and the Exemplar of Local Taxation in England

Titmuss's Social Division of Welfare (SDW) thesis is a vitally important but much neglected element of social policy analysis. This article seeks to explore the SDW, with a particular focus on fiscal welfare. Fiscal welfare has been described as forming a hidden welfare state, and while taxation is one of the main ways in which governments affect the lives of citizens, studies of welfare pay remarkably little attention to its impact. Fiscal welfare is examined by using, as an exemplar, local taxation in England, a subject that itself is neglected within social policy. Local taxation in England is of interest because it illustrates the impact of a system of taxation on different groups of citizens, and how this can operate to the benefit of rich over poor citizens. This is because the current system is highly regressive, meaning that those on low and middle incomes spend proportionately more of their income paying the tax than do those on high incomes. What is of further interest is how within the debate about reform of local taxation, concern with regressivity becomes obscured and ceases to be the focus of attention. We are thus provided with an example of how fiscal welfare remains a hidden issue. The article concludes by arguing that social policy analysis needs to move beyond the narrow confines of social welfare and develop a broader understanding of welfare, based on the SDW.     

财政分权和环境规制促进了中国绿色技术创新吗？

基于我国2003-2017年省级面板数据测算财政分权水平和财政分权效率,结合两阶段关联网络DEA测算绿色创新效率、绿色技术研发效率、绿色技术成果转化效率。结合理论模型与实证模型,分析了财政分权、环境规制对我国绿色技术创新的影响。结果表明：从整体上看,财政分权水平、财政分权效率和环境规制都是推动我国绿色创新发展的积极因素,财政分权还通过影响环境规制对绿色技术创新产生积极间接影响;但也导致了地方政府不注重绿色研发的短视行为。从不同时段看,财政分权和环境规制对绿色创新影响发生了变化,一是国际金融危机以后,财政分权加大了经济刺激政策对绿色创新发展的挤出效应,但这在新时代以后得到缓解;二是2013年以后地方环境规制水平提升过快,在一定程度上反而不利于绿色创新。从发展处于不同分位的地区看,财政分权对高、低分位地区绿色创新发展支持都稍显不足,但提高财政分权效率则能显著带动高分位地区发展;环境规制只在高分位地区促进了绿色创新发展,但对绿色创新效率较低的地区而言,过高的环境规制并没有实际意义。     

Getting low educated and older people into work: The role of fiscal policy

Raising employment, in particular employment among older individuals and low educated individuals, stands high on the agenda of policy makers in many OECD countries. Increased sensitivity in recent years to rising inequality has made the challenge only larger. In this paper we evaluate alternative fiscal policy scenarios to face this challenge. We construct and use an overlapping generations model for an open economy where individuals differ not only by age, but also by innate ability and human capital. The model allows us to study effects on aggregate employment, per capita income and welfare, as well as effects for specific age and ability groups. We show that well-considered fiscal policy changes can significantly improve macroeconomic productive efficiency, without increasing intergenerational or intragenerational welfare inequality. Our results strongly prefer a reduction in the labor tax rate on older workers and on all low-wage earners, financed by an overall reduction in non-employment benefits. An alternative financing option is to raise the consumption tax rate. These results are to be seen as long-run effects for economies at potential output.     

零售商双渠道供应链定价及协调研究

研究了零售商双渠道供应链的定价策略和协调问题,建立制造商和零售商两方博弈模型,分析了集中决策和分散决策两种情境下的定价决策均衡解,并设计收入共享契约来解决零售商双渠道存在的双重边际化效应。结果表明,零售商需要提供合理的收入分配比例才能实现供应链各成员利润的Pareto改进,并最终协调整个双渠道供应链。在双渠道竞争环境下,线上线下不能采取完全同价策略,企业应针对不同渠道的具体情况制定不同的销售价格。     

An evaluation of alternative fiscal adjustment plans: The case of Italy

What advice can be given to the policymaker to reduce the burden of public debt after a crisis? In this situation, the debt consolidation calls for fiscal surplus based on increases in taxes and/or reductions in public spending. This paper aims at answering to the above question. Specifically, it evaluates different policy options on the table using the estimated model of the Italian dynamic General Equilibrium Model (IGEM). Our main message is that plans aimed at reducing the public debt based on tax increases rather than expenditure reductions are more effective. Therefore, consolidation should be designed on the former.     

水电工程移民收入测算模型构建及其应用研究

移民安置的目标已不再仅仅是按照水库蓄水的要求如期将淹没区居民和有关企、事业单位迁出库区,而且还要特别关注移民生产生活水平的恢复与提高。本文在构建水电工程移民收入测算理论模型以及第一手调查数据资料的基础上,建立符合实际经济社会发展状况的西南地区水电工程移民收入的测算模型,研究成果可以在西南地区水电工程移民收入的测算中推广。收入测算的结果也可以为移民政策的调整、改革及完善提供依据。     

中国式财政分权的宏观经济绩效——基于限制型VAR模型的经验分析

本文从中央政府与地方政府行为角度构建了中国式分权与宏观经济绩效之间的关联框架,指出中国式分权体制下的地方政府竞争行为构成了中国经济增长以及周期性过热的主导力量。由于中国不同省份的自然历史、地理位置以及发展政策差异极大,即使是同样的分权程度也可能产生不同的经济绩效与激励效果,这也就使得面板数据模型回归结论对其设定形式非常敏感。因此,本文采用受限VAR模型来实证分析中国式财政分权对于经济增长率和通货膨胀率的作用效应,结论证实了本文的理论预期。     

汉代财政制度演变试探

西汉初年,丞相总揽国家财政。为制约丞相财权,皇帝先后在相府设计相、司直以制约,并以御史大夫分解和监督相府财权,还通过直接控制部分国家仓库来加强对国家财政的控制。在调整国家财政管理系统的过程中,职能庞杂的少府被分解,最终成为单纯的皇家财政管理机构,真正实现了帝室财政和国家财政的分离。皇帝的秘书机构最终也取代了相府各曹,成为国家最高财政管理机构——度支尚书。原来分管国家财政和帝室财政的大司农和少府最后演变成为国家财政的具体执行部门。最终在唐代形成了以户部为中心的新的财政管理模式。