Predicting infectious disease outbreak risk via migratory waterfowl vectors

The spread of an emerging infectious disease is a major public health threat. Given the uncertainties associated with vector-borne diseases, in terms of vector dynamics and disease transmission, it is critical to develop statistical models that address how and when such an infectious disease could spread throughout a region such as the USA. This paper considers a spatio-temporal statistical model for how an infectious disease could be carried into the USA by migratory waterfowl vectors during their seasonal migration and, ultimately, the risk of transmission of such a disease to domestic fowl. Modeling spatio-temporal data of this type is inherently difficult given the uncertainty associated with observations, complexity of the dynamics, high dimensionality of the underlying process, and the presence of excessive zeros. In particular, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the waterfowl migration are developed by way of a two-tiered functional temporal and spatial dimension reduction procedure that captures spatial and seasonal trends, as well as regional dynamics. Furthermore, the model relates the migration to a population of poultry farms that are known to be susceptible to such diseases, and is one of the possible avenues toward transmission to domestic poultry and humans. The result is a predictive distribution of those counties containing poultry farms that are at the greatest risk of having the infectious disease infiltrate their flocks assuming that the migratory population was infected. The model naturally fits into the hierarchical Bayesian framework.     

危机事件中的网络视频传播与话语分析

随着网络视频的兴起,网络传播进入视频时代：对央视网和优酷网“甲型H1N1流感”议题的网络视频进行对比研究发现,在视频节目来源、话语平台的影响力和话语影响力以及话语呈现和对话机制方面,网络视频官方话语与民间话语的呈现都存在显著差异和一定规律。更为重要的是,网络视频传播在危机事件中的作用日益显著。     

大流感、战争与创伤记忆——《灰色马，灰色的骑手》中的创伤叙事

文学界对凯瑟琳·安·波特的研究多停留在其写作风格上,实际上,如果结合小说的第一次世界大战和1918年大流感爆发的背景来看,她的短篇小说《灰色马,灰色的骑手》是一部创伤小说。其中的创伤叙事不仅有助于个人的创伤修复,更揭露了被帝国战争话语掩盖的集体创伤,是对历史叙事的一次积极补充和修改。     

禽流感疫情管理中的问题与挑战：一项基于家禽风险管理的实证研究*

以往的疫情报告表明,小规模养殖方式的存在是导致疫情爆发的主要根源。如何对小规模养殖方式实施监督是重建整个疫情规训设置的重中之重。然而,调查表明,现有疫情规训机制是基于现代养殖场的风险管理模式建立的,不论“知识-权力”设置,还是管理技术都难以对小规模养殖方式和散养方式实施有效监管。而且,在整个乡村,盛行着工业化养殖文化（现代养殖文化）和有机养殖文化（传统养殖文化）的话语权之争。因此,为了应对碎片化风险管理现状,不仅需要进一步完善现有的“知识-权力”设置,而且需要重新定义工业化养殖文化,以克服现有“混杂性”小规模养殖方式的诟病,真正建立有效的疫情管理机制。     

Understanding the Risk of an Avian Flu Pandemic: Rational Waiting or Precautionary Failure?

The precautionary principle (PP) has been proposed as the proper guide for the decision-making criteria to be adopted in the face of the new catastrophic risks that have arisen in the last decades. This article puts forward a workable definition of the PP based on the so-called alpha-maximin expected utility approach, applying it to the possible outbreak of the avian flu disease among humans. Moreover, it shows how the shortage and/or lack of effective drugs against the infection of the virus A(H5N1) among humans can be considered a precautionary failure.     

The online news cycle and the continuous alteration of crisis frames: A Swedish case study on how the immediacy of online news affected the framing of the swine flu epidemic

Abstract

This explorative case study investigates how the continuous publication cycle and the immediacy of online news affected the Swedish news media framing of the swine flu epidemic between April and May 2009. The findings suggest that media framing changes continuously, several times a day, effectively painting different frames of the crisis. Consequently, an organization involved in this crisis may face stakeholders that have encountered contrasting frames depending on when they accessed the latest news. Furthermore, the results show that the speed of modifications seems to be highest in the initial stages of reporting when the flu was perceived as more dangerous. Because the crisis frames change constantly, this provides both a challenging crisis communication environment and an opportunity to influence and shape the frames by organizations that are aware of them and act swiftly.     

Poultry and policy in Ghana: Lessons from the periphery of an agricultural policy system

We analyze poultry‐related policy documents from Ghana and ask how the problems identified and the actions proposed have changed over time. The analysis highlights the fact of limited and poor quality data, and associated uncertainty, ambiguity and poor specification of both problems and interventions. It also points to a long‐term commitment to intensive commercial production as the preferred pathway to deliver more animal protein. However, in the face of persistent feed constraints and economic liberalization, imports of frozen chicken have sky‐rocketed since the early 2000s, and a new pathway has come to dominate. We discuss this outcome and what it says more generally about policy around minor crops and livestock species.     

论公共健康与药品专利强制许可

禽流感在全球的蔓延给人类的生命健康亮起红灯,同时也再次引起学术界对公共健康与药品专利强制许可问题的热烈讨论。面对作为私权的药品专利和作为人权的公共健康,不仅关系到法律制度层面的问题,而且涉及社会历史、政治经济、文化传统等许多层面。如果缺乏对这种复杂关系的深刻理解和正确把握,则不能确立科学合理地解决这种矛盾的原则和方式。     

流行病瘟疫与集体生存意识——关于海宁地区应对禽流感威胁的文化人类学考察

本文在田野实地考察、深度访谈和挖掘历史记忆的基础上,通过对2005年秋冬时节浙江海宁地区从各级政府和防疫部门到普通民众应对禽流感威胁的策略和措施的分析,揭示在危机过程中得以充分焕发的“集体生存意识”, 是如何促使传统“调适性智慧”与现代流行防疫知识的有机结合,并融入了抗击流行性瘟疫的现代实践中,发挥难以替代的职能。此研究的另一重要意义是力图以文化人类学的视角和研究手段来重构这一对日常社会生活造成巨大影响的危机事件的过程,为观察和分析全球化条件下不同语境中应对流行病瘟疫的地方性策略提供有价值的民族志文本。     

A Social‐Cognitive Model of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 Risk Perception and Recommended Behaviors in Italy

The outbreak of the pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 (swine flu) between March and April 2009 challenged the health services around the world. Indeed, misconceptions and worries have led the public to refuse to comply with precautionary measures. Moreover, there have been limited efforts to develop models incorporating cognitive, social‐contextual, and affective factors as predictors of compliance with recommended behaviors. The aim of this study was to apply a social‐cognitive model of risk perception and individual response to pandemic influenza H1N1 in a representative sample of Italian population. A sample of 1,010 Italians of at least 18 years of age took part in a telephone survey. The survey included measures of perceived preparedness of institutions, family members and friends’ levels of worry, exposure to media campaigns (social‐contextual factors), perceived coping efficacy, likelihood of infection, perceived seriousness, personal impact, and severity of illness (cognitive evaluations), affective response and compliance with recommended behaviors. Results demonstrated that affective response fully mediated the relationship between cognitive evaluations and social‐contextual factors (with the exception of exposure to media campaigns) and compliance with recommended behaviors. Perceived coping efficacy and preparedness of institutions were not related to compliance with recommended behaviors.