On shrinkage m-estimators of location parameters

For a general class of continuous ( and marginally symmetric ) inultivariate distributions, based on suitable M-statistics ( involving bounded but possibly discontinuous score generating functions), shrinkage estimators of location are considered. These estimators are based on the James-Stein type rule and incorporates the idea of preliminary test estimation too. The main emphasis is laid on the study of asymptotic tdistributional ) risk properties of these est-innators, and asymptotic tin-) adraissibility results are also studied under fairly general regularity conditions.     

说“魃(八)怪”

问题 ,不失为一种有效至少是可行的办法 ,这与化验报告作为医生诊断疾病的参考或依据同属一理。举两个例子。例子一 :据笔者研究 ,《红楼梦》前 80回的语言有不少江淮方言 (下江官话 )的成份 (见《〈红楼梦〉语言的地方色彩》 ,载《红楼梦学刊》1 984年第 2辑 ) ,表明曹雪芹谙熟扬州、南京方言 ;而红学界对雍正六年 ( 1 72 8年 )曹家举家北返时曹雪芹的年龄有两种说法 ,一为 5岁 ,一为1 3岁 ,对《红楼梦》中方言的研究则支持后一说法。———如果孩提时代就离开一个地方 ,该地方言的影响就不可能有那么大了。又 ,后 40回和前80回运用方言情…     

Terrorist Population Dynamics Model

A system that includes a number of terrorist cells is considered. The cells can consist of one or more terrorists. The current number of terrorist cells is further denoted by N(t), where t is a current time counted from any appropriate origin. The objective is to find the evolution of the system in terms of N(t) and some interpretable parameters, such as the initial number of the terrorist cells N0=N(0), the cell disabling rate constant lambda (or the cell half-life t1/2), and the rate of formation of new cells P. The cost-effectiveness analysis, performed in the framework of the model, reveals that the effectiveness of disabling a terrorist cell is getting worse after 2-3 half-lives of a cell, which shows that if the anti-terrorist actions have not reached their goal during that time, the respective policy should be considered for revision, using the risk assessment consideration. Another important issue raised concerns balancing the efforts related to counterterrorism actions inside the system and the efforts protecting its borders. The respective data analysis is suggested and illustrated using simulated data.     

明清小说评点的空间连叙概念:一线穿

本文清理明清小说评点空间叙事理论，提出一线穿是评点家提炼的贯穿小说间架结构的连叙概念。它和书法的一笔书、绘画的一笔画具有同构对应的亲缘关系，表现出空间意识，追求整体连叙的线性运动和贯通的气势。     

人机工程学的发展及人机系统的可靠性

本文介绍了人机工程学(工效学)这一新兴边缘学科的研究内容、发展及现状,讨论了人-机系统的可靠性并着重讨论了人的操作可靠性,探讨了按人为差错进行可靠性分析与可靠性估计的人为差错和可靠性分析逻辑推演法(HERALD法)及系统能力方法(SC方法)。 本文的结论可供系统管理工作者及设计工作者,特别是可靠性管理及可靠性设计工作者参考。     

Estimating Fatality Reductions from Increased Safety Belt Use

Fatality reductions from increases in safety belt use are estimated taking into account that drivers who change from being nonusers to being users have lower accident involvement rates than the remaining nonusers, a process referred to as "selective recruitment." Analytical functions are derived which express expected fatality reductions in terms of changes in safety belt use rates from an initial rate. The function parameters are determined by requiring that computed average crash rates for nonusers be 53% higher than the rates for users, a recently determined empirical value. These functions show that, depending on the initial use rate and use rate increase, selective recruitment may increase or decrease expected fatality reductions. However, effects are relatively small, in no case exceeding +/- 5.3%.     

基于"透明"神经网络的模拟电路故障诊断

本文通过分析BP神经网络用于模拟电路故障诊断时的缺点,提出了一种新的神经网络．称为“透明”神经网络(TANN)．然后将TANN用于模拟电路子网络级故障诊断．并通过实例验证了该诊断方法的有效性．     

中国新文化的几个层面--段国超先生《鲁迅论稿》序(续)

中国新文化有三个重要的文化界面:外省文化界、京海文化界和跨国文化界.外省文化界中的知识分子之间的联系多是间接的、文字的,平时的生活环境不是文化的,而是政治权力的或物质实利的.京海文化界中的知识分子之间的接触不但是文化的,也是生活的.它在更大程度上超越了政治权力关系和物质实利关系的束缚,是一种纯粹的、精神的、人性的联系形式,但它不如外省文化界的地方,就是对"个人成就感"的重视.个人成就感一方面极大刺激了中国文化的再生产,一方面也导致了中国知识分子精神上的颗粒化、沙漠化.跨国文化界由国内研究外国文化或外国文学的知识分子及在国外从事中国文化研究的知识分子构成.中国知识分子的个人成就感在跨国文化界的形成和发展中也起到了巨大制约作用.影响之一就是使跨国文化界表现为向单一文化靠拢,主要是向美国文化靠拢;影响之二就是当代世界文化的输入在起到解放中国广大知识分子的思想的同时,也逐渐强化了自己对中国广大知识分子的压迫力量,逐渐强化着对"五四"新文化传统的否定趋势,从而加强了他们与京海文化界和外省文化界广大知识分子的对立.     

灰色动态预测模型在货币供应量预测中的应用

在对金融系统中货币供应量的预测进行相关研究的基础上,介绍了符合金融系统预测规律的灰色系统动态预测法,并根据中国货币供应量的实际数据进行了实证的预测检验。结果显示,这种方法简单,不需要借助于其他任何时间序列数据,需要数据量少,预测精确度高,对于近期预测尤其准确,也可进行中长期预测;实证预测结果也符合我国金融系统中货币供应量预测的实际。     

商鞅变法得失新析

商鞅变法是战国时期最为彻底的一次封建化改革活动。这次变法既有值得后来改革者认真总结和借鉴的一系列成功的宝贵经验,也有不少极为沉重的历史教训。