甘肃定西马铃薯产业链物流分析

甘肃马铃薯产业的产业链纵向和横向发展都不够完善，而物流是产业链中一个重要的子集，如何发展物流产业，是一个重要的问题。本文分析了目前甘肃定西的物流体系，指出了其中存在的一些问题和认识上的误区，提出了几种整合产业链的思路。     

连锁超市替代农贸市场的对策研究

超市作为一种新型零售业态,在我国已经颇具规模,以连锁超市替代农贸市场已成为可能。本文通过连锁超市与农贸市场的比较,分析了连锁超市具有的优势及替代过程的障碍,提出了连锁超市替代农贸市场的对策。     

价值链理论在跨国经营中的应用

本文剖析了价值链的特点及其变化趋势,阐明了在跨国经营中如何应用价值链理论。旨在为提高我国企业的国际经济竞争力提供参考。     

基于信任的供应链治理机制研究

针对供应链的治理难题,提出信任具有决策、协调、约束和简化等功能,信任机制是非垂直管理体系特别是供应链的理想治理工具,由此建构了多层次的供应链信任治理结构体系。     

矿难的法律治理:一种法经济学的路径

在法经济学的基本范式中,成本效益理论揭示了违法行为主体实施违法行为的概率与违法成本成反比、与违法收益成正比的原理。我国近年来频频发生的矿难事故与采矿中违法主体的违法行为有密切关系。由于我国规制采矿的配套法制不完善,导致行为主体实施违法行为的成本过低而收益巨大,最终引发了多起重大矿难事故。所以在法经济学的视角下,完善各项与采矿有关的法律制度以提高采矿中行为主体实施违法行为的成本,减少其收益,就成为预防和减少矿难事故发生的有效途径。     

On an adaptive version of the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm with independent proposal distribution

In this paper, we present a general formulation of an algorithm, the adaptive independent chain (AIC), that was introduced in a special context in Gåsemyr et al . [ Methodol. Comput. Appl. Probab. 3 (2001)]. The algorithm aims at producing samples from a specific target distribution Π, and is an adaptive, non-Markovian version of the Metropolis–Hastings independent chain. A certain parametric class of possible proposal distributions is fixed, and the parameters of the proposal distribution are updated periodically on the basis of the recent history of the chain, thereby obtaining proposals that get ever closer to Π. We show that under certain conditions, the algorithm produces an exact sample from Π in a finite number of iterations, and hence that it converges to Π. We also present another adaptive algorithm, the componentwise adaptive independent chain (CAIC), which may be an alternative in particular in high dimensions. The CAIC may be regarded as an adaptive approximation to the Gibbs sampler updating parametric approximations to the conditionals of Π.     

A bayesian estimator for the dependence function of a bivariate extreme‐value distribution

Any continuous bivariate distribution can be expressed in terms of its margins and a unique copula. In the case of extreme‐value distributions, the copula is characterized by a dependence function while each margin depends on three parameters. The authors propose a Bayesian approach for the simultaneous estimation of the dependence function and the parameters defining the margins. They describe a nonparametric model for the dependence function and a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the computation of the Bayesian estimator. They show through simulations that their estimator has a smaller mean integrated squared error than classical nonparametric estimators, especially in small samples. They illustrate their approach on a hydrological data set.     

考虑环境因素下的上海世博会经济影响评价

通过对环境生态成本的分析，根据上海市2002年的投入产出表，建立了基于资源一经济一环境绿色投入产出表的绿色GDP核算方法。利用这一方法对2010年上海世博会对上海经济一环境影响进行分析研究，结果反映了上海世博会对上海的综合影响。     

社会的可持续发展及其公正实现

社会可持续发展不仅是人类追求的目标,也是人类社会发展繁荣至今的根本所在。但我们在强调发展的同时也大力倡导社会公正的实现,只不过是在目前社会主义初级阶段我们更加提倡能够促进社会经济可持续发展的“公正实现”,这种“公正实现”所带来的可持续发展是以效率的提高为前提的。     

Almost Consistent Estimation of Panel Probit Models with “Small” Fixed Effects

We propose four different GMM estimators that allow almost consistent estimation of the structural parameters of panel probit models with fixed effects for the case of small Tand large N. The moments used are derived for each period from a first order approximation of the mean of the dependent variable conditional on explanatory variables and on the fixed effect. The estimators differ w.r.t. the choice of instruments and whether they use trimming to reduce the bias or not. In a Monte Carlo study, we compare these estimators with pooled probit and conditional logit estimators for different data generating processes. The results show that the proposed estimators outperform these competitors in several situations.