供应链的杠杆管理模式及模糊思考

现代企业对供应链的管理日益重要。供应链包括顾客需求所直接或间接涉及的所有环节。供应链管理需要把原先被认为是分开的供应过程的各个部分联合起来。对供应链的价值网管理模式进行了论述,提出了供应链的杠杆管理模式,强调了企业目标的重要性和顾客需求的核心地位,并且进行了模糊思考。     

影响机制研究 ——基于信贷融资成本视角

以制造业上市公司2009—2021年的数据为研究样本,实证检验了ESG表现对制造业企业高质量发展的影响机制。结果表明：ESG表现对制造业企业高质量发展具有显著的促进作用,该结论经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立;信贷融资成本在ESG表现与制造业企业高质量发展之间起到了中介作用;进一步研究发现,在东部地区、国有企业、大规模企业以及重污染企业样本中,ESG表现对制造业企业高质量发展的促进作用更为显著。据此,政府应建立并完善制造业上市公司的ESG信息披露制度,企业也应积极主动地提升自身的ESG表现水平,以共同促进制造业企业的高质量发展。     

供应链系统视角下消费者环境意识的社会分配效应研究

消费者环境意识既会促进环境保护,又会改变消费行为、市场需求、消费者福利和企业利润等的分配。然而,消费者环境意识的分配效应是环境保护、消费行为和社会分配三者的结合部,在现有研究中鲜有涉及。对此,从供应链系统视角建立博弈模型,求解供应链定价和生态技术投资决策,分析消费者环境意识逐级传导引起的连锁反应,研究消费者环境意识如何改变社会分配格局。研究发现：首先,消费者环境意识会提高市场价格和企业利润,但是会降低消费者福利;其次,消费者环境意识会提高企业的分配地位,其中对零售企业的提高程度更大,但是会降低消费者的分配地位;最后,消费者环境意识越强,企业分配地位的提高程度和消费者福利的下降程度就越大。本研究丰富了对消费者环境意识多种作用的认识,有利于合理权衡环保、经济和分配等制定科学合理的发展政策。     

基于PLSSEM的在线消费中交易成本的影响因素研究

交易成本是影响消费者购买意愿的重要因素,分析交易成本的影响因素对于促进消费具有积极意义。在对在线交易中交易成本相关文献研究的基础上,设计了在线消费中交易成本影响因素的假设命题,通过PLS--SEM模型,利用调研数据,对消费者在线消费中交易成本的影响因素进行定量分析。研究表明,购买频率和不确定性因素显著地影响交易成本,不确定性影响作用较大,并最终对购买意愿产生影响。     

Inference for Epidemics with Three Levels of Mixing: Methodology and Application to a Measles Outbreak

Abstract. A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings according to potentially different rates. For this model, we consider how different kinds of data can be used to estimate the infection rate parameters with a view to understanding what can and cannot be inferred. Among other things we find that temporal data can be of considerable inferential benefit compared with final size data, that the degree of heterogeneity in the data can have a considerable effect on inference for non‐household transmission, and that inferences can be materially different from those obtained from a model with only two levels of mixing. We illustrate our findings by analysing a highly detailed dataset concerning a measles outbreak in Hagelloch, Germany.     

Detecting mean increases in Poisson INAR(1) processes with EWMA control charts

Processes of serially dependent Poisson counts are commonly observed in real-world applications and can often be modeled by the first-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) model. For detecting positive shifts in the mean of a Poisson INAR(1) process, we propose the one-sided s exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart, which is based on a new type of rounding operation. The s-EWMA chart allows computing average run length (ARLs) exactly and efficiently with a Markov chain approach. Using an implementation of this procedure for ARL computation, the s-EWMA chart is easily designed, which is demonstrated with a real-data example. Based on an extensive study of ARLs, the out-of-control performance of the chart is analyzed and compared with that of a c chart and a one-sided cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart. We also investigate the robustness of the chart against departures from the assumed Poisson marginal distribution.     

成本计算法比较研究

制造成本法是我国现行有关会计制度规定的企业计算成本的方法,但在实际中,企业为了加强内部管理或适应成本管理的需要,也采用完全成本法和变动成本法计算成本。制造成本法、完全成本法和变动成本法因其各自的特点、使用对象和范围的不同,可从不同的角度满足企业成本计算和成本管理的需要。     

论经营性企业国有资本保值与增值

近年来我国国有资本流失呈快速递增态势,国有资本保值现状十分令人担忧。为了有效地实现国有资本保值增值,必须树立国有资本保值增值观念,进一步完善国有资本的管理、监督和营运机制,加强国有企业内部管理,确保成本的足额补偿。     

A Bayesian Model for Markov Chains via Jeffrey's Prior

Abstract

This work deals with the problem of Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities associated with multistate Markov chain. The model is based on the Jeffreys' noninformative prior. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of MCMC techniques. A numerical study by simulation is done in order to compare the Bayesian estimator with the maximum likelihood estimator.     

非再生资源开发利用中自身价值折耗测算方法研究

摘　　要:构建定量计算和评估开发利用中非再生资源自身价值折耗的理论与方法是绿色GDP核算的关键。目前,净租法、使用者成本法是被用于非再生自然资本价值折耗最主要的方法。但在这两者中,比较分析的结果表明。虽然它们是在一个相同的思想指导下的非再生资源折耗值测算的方法,但由于使用者成本法对处理存在不断变化的开采量、存储量的情况能运用自如,并且使用其计算的资源价值折耗值也相对稳定等。于是,使用者成本法就成为对非再生资源开发利用中价值折耗进行计量的比较可行的方法 。