民营企业跨所有制并购与资本结构调整速度

民营企业混合所有制改革是助推经济高质量发展的重要途径,是拓宽融资渠道、缓解融资约 束、优化企业资本结构的重要抓手,但相关研究相对不足。 利用 2014—2018 年民营上市公司的并购数 据,检验跨所有制并购对资本结构调整速度的作用机理。 研究发现:民营企业跨所有制并购对资本结构 调整速度具有促进作用,且主要是通过降低企业的融资约束、削弱代理成本而实现,融资约束和代理成本 发挥了部分中介效应。 研究结论不仅为缓解企业融资约束及代理问题提供了新的思路和方法,也为保护 关注非公有制企业的发展与融合,促使其发挥民间资本的优势,在混合所有制经济的建设过程中贡献力 量具有积极意义。     

Longitudinal trajectories of maternal parenting stress in Korean families: Children's executive function and school adjustment

A majority of mothers experience parenting stress in daily life; however high levels of maternal stress have been recognized as a risk factor for children's developmental outcomes. We examined trajectories of maternal parenting stress across childhood, and their longitudinal relations to children's executive function and school adjustment. Data were drawn from the Panel Study on Korean Children (PSKC), which included 1754 mothers across five waves measured at children ages 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 (boys = 51%). Results of Latent Growth Curve Modeling (LGCM) revealed that, on average, maternal parenting stress decreased over time, but there were significant variabilities in the initial levels at age 3 and changes across early through middle childhood. High initial levels of stress and an increase in maternal parenting stress over time were associated with lower executive function at age 7 in planning-organizing and attention concentration. An increment in maternal parenting stress over time was related to poorer school adjustment at age 7, measured by classroom behavior, positive approach to learning, and child-peer and child-teacher relationships. These findings support cultural commonality and may contribute to the instantiation of culturally universal, early preventions and interventions to support mothers’ mental health. Efforts aimed at reducing maternal parenting stress early in development may promote better long-term developmental outcomes, including executive functioning and school adjustment of children in their first year of elementary school.     

Siblings in lockdown: International evidence for birth order effects on child adjustment in the Covid19 pandemic

Supportive family relationships may mitigate the impact of the Covid19 pandemic on young children's adjustment, but existing work is limited by its focus on within-country variation and parental influences. Addressing these gaps, and drawing on reported buffering effects of older siblings on child mental health (Lawson and Mace, 2010), the current international study examined whether child adjustment problems were, on average, elevated by the pandemic and whether this buffering effect of older siblings would be maintained. In the first wave of the Covid19 pandemic (April to July 2020), 2516 parents of 3- to 8-year-old children living in Australia, China, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States of America—six countries with contrasting governmental responses to the pandemic—completed an online survey about family experiences and relationships and child adjustment, as indexed by ratings on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ: R. Goodman, 1997). As expected, child SDQ total difficulty scores were elevated in all sites except Sweden (which notably did not enforce mass school closures). Compared to children without siblings, children with one or more older siblings showed fewer adjustment problems. Children from lone-parent households displayed more adjustment problems, as did those whose parents reported increased sibling conflict. Finally, child adjustment problems were negatively associated with family socio-economic status, but positively related to the indices of Covid-19 family disruption and government stringency. We discuss these findings in relation to existing work on asymmetric effects of older versus younger siblings, and siblings as sources of support.     

Inclusion of binary proxy variables in logistic regression improves treatment effect estimation in observational studies in the presence of binary unmeasured confounding variables

We present a simulation study and application that shows inclusion of binary proxy variables related to binary unmeasured confounders improves the estimate of a related treatment effect in binary logistic regression. The simulation study included 60,000 randomly generated parameter scenarios of sample size 10,000 across six different simulation structures. We assessed bias by comparing the probability of finding the expected treatment effect relative to the modeled treatment effect with and without the proxy variable. Inclusion of a proxy variable in the logistic regression model significantly reduced the bias of the treatment or exposure effect when compared to logistic regression without the proxy variable. Including proxy variables in the logistic regression model improves the estimation of the treatment effect at weak, moderate, and strong association with unmeasured confounders and the outcome, treatment, or proxy variables. Comparative advantages held for weakly and strongly collapsible situations, as the number of unmeasured confounders increased, and as the number of proxy variables adjusted for increased.     

Regression‐type models for extremal dependence

We propose a vector generalized additive modeling framework for taking into account the effect of covariates on angular density functions in a multivariate extreme value context. The proposed methods are tailored for settings where the dependence between extreme values may change according to covariates. We devise a maximum penalized log‐likelihood estimator, discuss details of the estimation procedure, and derive its consistency and asymptotic normality. The simulation study suggests that the proposed methods perform well in a wealth of simulation scenarios by accurately recovering the true covariate‐adjusted angular density. Our empirical analysis reveals relevant dynamics of the dependence between extreme air temperatures in two alpine resorts during the winter season.     

Decomposition of a state-space model with inputs

This article shows how to compute the in-sample effect of exogenous inputs on the endogenous variables in any linear model written in a state–space form. Estimating this component may be either interesting by itself, or a previous step before decomposing a time series into trend, cycle, seasonal and error components. The practical application and usefulness of this method is illustrated by estimating the effect of advertising on the monthly sales of Lydia Pinkham's vegetable compound.     

Methods improving the estimate of diagnostic odds ratio

Diagnostic odds ratio is defined as the ratio of the odds of the positivity of a diagnostic test results in the diseased population relative to that in the non-diseased population. It is a function of sensitivity and specificity, which can be seen as an indicator of the diagnostic accuracy for the evaluation of a biomarker/test. The naïve estimator of diagnostic odds ratio fails when either sensitivity or specificity is close to one, which leads the denominator of diagnostic odds ratio equal to zero. We propose several methods to adjust for such situation. Agresti and Coull’s adjustment is a common and straightforward way for extreme binomial proportions. Alternatively, estimation methods based on a more advanced sampling design can be applied, which systematically selects samples from underlying population based on judgment ranks. Under such design, the odds can be estimated by the sum of indicator functions and thus avoid the situation of dividing by zero and provide a valid estimation. The asymptotic mean and variance of the proposed estimators are derived. All methods are readily applied for the confidence interval estimation and hypothesis testing for diagnostic odds ratio. A simulation study is conducted to compare the efficiency of the proposed methods. Finally, the proposed methods are illustrated using a real dataset.     

An analysis of media reporting on the closure of freestanding midwifery units in England

ProblemDespite clinical guidelines and policy promoting choice of place of birth, 14 Freestanding Midwifery Units were closed between 2008 and 2015, closures reported in the media as justified by low use and financial constraints.BackgroundThe Birthplace in England Programme found that freestanding midwifery units provided the most cost-effective birthplace for women at low risk of complications. Women planning birth in a freestanding unit were less likely to experience interventions and serious morbidity than those planning obstetric unit birth, with no difference in outcomes for babies.MethodsThis paper uses an interpretative technique developed for policy analysis to explore the representation of these closures in 191 news articles, to explore the public climate in which they occurred.Findings and discussionThe articles focussed on underuse by women and financial constraints on services. Despite the inclusion of service user voices, the power of framing was held by service managers and commissioners. The analysis exposed how neoliberalist and austerity policies have privileged representation of individual consumer choice and market-driven provision as drivers of changes in health services. This normative framing presents the reasons given for closure as hard to refute and cultural norms persist that birth is safest in an obstetric setting, despite evidence to the contrary.ConclusionThe rise of neoliberalism and austerity in contemporary Britain has influenced the reform of maternity services, in particular the closure of midwifery units. Justifications given for closure silence other narratives, predominantly from service users, that attempt to present women’s choice in terms of rights and a social model of care.     

Psychological reactance and negative emotional reactions in the link between psychological control and adolescent adjustment

Researchers consistently report links between psychological control and adolescent behavior problems, but the processes linking psychological control with behavior problems are unclear. Adolescents’ negative emotional reactions and psychological reactance were tested as potential longitudinal mediators linking parental psychological control with both internalizing and externalizing behavior problems. Data were collected from a sample of 242 adolescents (M age = 15.4 at Time 1; 50.8% female; 50% white, non‐Hispanic, 18% African American, 16% Hispanic, and 16% of other or multiple ethnicities) at three time points over a 2‐year period. Adolescents self‐reported depressive symptoms, antisocial behavior, negative emotional reactions, and psychological reactance. Adolescents and their parents provided ratings of parental psychological control. Cross‐sectional models replicated patterns previously reported suggesting that negative emotional reactions and reactance mediate between psychological control and internalizing and externalizing behavior problems. However, in cross‐lagged panel models, neither negative emotional reactions nor reactance emerged as a mediator between psychological control and internalizing or externalizing problems. In contrast, results suggested that psychological control is an outcome of rather than contributor to, negative emotional reactions. Moreover, the addition of random intercepts to cross‐lagged models indicated that associations between psychological control, emotional and behavioral reactions, and internalizing/externalizing behavior may represent stable trait‐like patterns.     

藁城市宫灯文化产业可持续性发展研究

本文对影响和阻碍宫灯产业转型和发展的问题进行分析，针对藁城宫灯产业可持续发展问题提出了改进方法和对应策略。解决问题的关键在于要调整宫灯产业组织结构，优化产业集群增强效能；运用现代设计理念在传承和创新的过程中给宫灯注入时代性和社会性特征，拓展宫灯的文化内涵；强化藁城宫灯的品牌意识，搭建产业平台实现信息资源化共享。