A non-parametric statistic for testing conditional heteroscedasticity for unobserved component models

When prediction intervals are constructed using unobserved component models (UCM), problems can arise due to the possible existence of components that may or may not be conditionally heteroscedastic. Accurate coverage depends on correctly identifying the source of the heteroscedasticity. Different proposals for testing heteroscedasticity have been applied to UCM; however, in most cases, these procedures are unable to identify the heteroscedastic component correctly. The main issue is that test statistics are affected by the presence of serial correlation, causing the distribution of the statistic under conditional homoscedasticity to remain unknown. We propose a nonparametric statistic for testing heteroscedasticity based on the well-known Wilcoxon''s rank statistic. We study the asymptotic validation of the statistic and examine bootstrap procedures for approximating its finite sample distribution. Simulation results show an improvement in the size of the homoscedasticity tests and a power that is clearly comparable with the best alternative in the literature. We also apply the test on real inflation data. Looking for the presence of a conditionally heteroscedastic effect on the error terms, we arrive at conclusions that almost all cases are different than those given by the alternative test statistics presented in the literature.     

关于我国权力机关行政法制监督的思考

行政法制监督作为一种法律制度,是依法行政和行政法制化的重要内容。权力机关作为国家行政法制监督的主体,其对行政的监督是行政法制监督的重要方面。我国的权力机关是指全国人民代表大会和地方各级人民代表大会。它在我国现行的行政法制监督中发挥着巨大作用,但随着社会主义民主法制的运行和市场经济的发展,权力机关的行政法制监督也呈现出不足和弊端。     

科举制度对中国传统礼俗的影响及启示

科举制度作为古代一项重要的选官制度,不仅对帝制中国隋唐以后的政治制度、士习民风、文化教育产生了广泛影响,而且还对在人们社会生活中发挥着极其重要功能的社会礼俗产生了深刻影响。其影响体现在：礼俗内容纳入科考范围,使得社会礼俗得到广泛宣传与普及;遵循能力本位,促使礼制下移;造就数目庞大的士绅阶层,担当传统礼俗的实践者与传播者;衍生出了众多富有科举色彩的传统礼俗。     

宋代相权的兴盛

宋初在权力结构的调整中对相权进行了分割,但考察宋代实际的权力运作,宋代的相权自始至终处于兴盛状态,对相权所采取的几项措施都没有对相权产生实质性的削弱作用。导致这一现象的主要原因在于宋代所奉行的基本国策是“以儒治国”,是君主与士大夫“共治天下”。同时,相权兴盛也是巩固政权的政治需要,亦是当时频繁的军事活动所需。     

Semiparametric regression of clustered current status data

This paper discusses regression analysis of clustered current status data under semiparametric additive hazards models. In particular, we consider the situation when cluster sizes can be informative about correlated failure times from the same cluster. To address the problem, we present estimating equation-based estimation procedures and establish asymptotic properties of the resulting estimates. Finite sample performance of the proposed method is assessed through an extensive simulation study, which indicates the procedure works well. The method is applied to a motivating data set from a lung tumorigenicity study.     

‘My profession is gone’: how social workers experience de-professionalization in the Netherlands

Recently social work in the Netherlands underwent two major changes. Specialized agencies were replaced by one-stop shops (district teams) and the welfare state was replaced by a ‘participation society’, in which vulnerable groups have to rely on their social network rather than resort to professional care. The first change is termed ‘de-specialization’; the second ‘basic de-professionalization’. The research question in this article is: how do Dutch social workers experience and evaluate these two developments? Qualitative interviews with 29 experienced social workers show that most of them endorse de-specialization, as this type of aid is deemed better for clients with complex problems. Moreover, many social workers like to take on new tasks. Basic de-professionalization is met with more reserve. Social workers observe that many clients do not have a suitable network and need professional help. In addition, they feel that their profession is being degraded as lay people and volunteers take over (part of) their work. However, they feel unable to resist this development, because resistance might get them sacked. Some social workers even enhance basic de-professionalization because of their willingness to continue working as (retired) volunteers. Social workers and theorists need to address and counter the move towards basic de-professionalization.     

The role of the welfare state in supporting economic transitions following family bereavement: Comparing Britain and Israel

Despite its centrality to the experience of death and grief, it is only in recent years that the economic burden following family bereavement has been recognized by social care professionals and scholars. Based on the realization that death and bereavement are grounded in social context, and assuming this economic burden is a multifaceted phenomenon, the present study compares the British and Israeli welfare systems in three policy settings: social security, funeral services, and bereavement leave. The findings suggest that while in both systems bereavement and especially widowhood is considered a deserving category, recent pressures for restructuring the British welfare state have been successful in shifting provision from the state to the market. The findings also show that in both cases, albeit to a lesser extent in Israel, current policy measures are not fully aligned with critical scholarship on bereavement and its financial consequences, nor with socio‐economic and demographic trends. These disparities are addressed using the notion of disenfranchised grief and by emphasizing the pivotal, although often overlooked role of the welfare state in constituting it. Lastly, the differences between the two cases are discussed in terms of the powerful role of Judaism in shaping Israeli policy.     

论外层空间物体的登记国

外层空间物体的登记国是指依《登记公约》进行登记的一个发射国。当存在多个发射国时,应当共同决定登记国。在无法达成一致时,应按照一定的规则确定登记国。如果外层空间物体所有权转移给其他发射国,可以进行变更登记;如果转移给非发射国,则不能由非发射国进行登记,但非发射国可以对外层空间物体行使管辖权或控制权。外层空间物体的登记对登记国具有一定的法律效果。     

江泽民依法治国思想探析

以江泽民同志为核心的第三代领导集体,首次提出了"依法治国,建设社会主义法治国家"的治国方略。准确把握江泽民同志依法治国的科学内涵,德治与法治的相互关联以及建设法治国家的主要途径等法治思想,对于全面建设社会主义小康社会和和谐社会意义深远。     

张载的大心工夫论

在张载哲学中,心具有客观存在与主观活动、体和用这样的心性两重的辨证结构。张载的大心,就是"复其性"、"复其初"的"心"回复为"性"和"气"的方法,此乃一切工夫的核心。在张载看来"民吾同胞,物吾与也"的境界,正是通过大心实现的万物一体的境界。