Objective Bayesian analysis of spatial data with uncertain nugget and range parameters

The authors develop default priors for the Gaussian random field model that includes a nugget parameter accounting for the effects of microscale variations and measurement errors. They present the independence Jeffreys prior, the Jeffreys‐rule prior and a reference prior and study posterior propriety of these and related priors. They show that the uniform prior for the correlation parameters yields an improper posterior. In case of known regression and variance parameters, they derive the Jeffreys prior for the correlation parameters. They prove posterior propriety and obtain that the predictive distributions at ungauged locations have finite variance. Moreover, they show that the proposed priors have good frequentist properties, except for those based on the marginal Jeffreys‐rule prior for the correlation parameters, and illustrate their approach by analyzing a dataset of zinc concentrations along the river Meuse. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 304–327; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

改革开放以来我国环境立法的基本经验和存在的问题

与中国改革开放40年的进程相伴而随,我国环境法学得以不断发展。论文以我国环境法初步发展、快速发展、创新发展三个阶段为轨迹,从立法、理论研究、学科建设三个主要方面,梳理改革开放40年中国环境法学呈现出的环境立法成熟完备、环境法学研究全面、深入、环境法学学科从边缘到核心的发展态势。     

略论胡适的自传理论及其实践

胡适是我国现代自传理论的开拓者,在他的倡导下,自传风气逐渐形成,并在20世纪30年代形成一个高峰期。他认为中国古代自传不发达事出有因,认为自传可以"为史家做材料"、"为文学开生路",同时具有巨大的教育意义。     

包含逆向物流的供应链库存控制问题研究

逆向物流的参与使得供应链库存管理问题更加复杂,为了切合物流运作的实际,本文在介绍逆向物流库存控制的最新理论--收集商管理库存(CMI)的基础上,引入逆向物流产品回收率a和修复率b两参数,建立了逆向物流产品到达服从泊松分布,产品修复周期为L的连续库存控制模型.经求解,模型的订货周期T和订货批量Q与修复周期L无关,是关于回收率a和修复率b的减函数且都较经典EOQ模型的订货周期和订货批量小.     

MEASURING INTERTEMPORAL SUBSTITUTION: THE IMPORTANCE OF METHOD CHOICES AND SELECTIVE REPORTING

I examine 2,735 estimates of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption (EIS) reported in 169 published studies. The literature shows strong selective reporting: researchers discard negative and insignificant estimates too often, which pulls the mean estimate up by about 0.5. The reporting bias dwarfs the effects of methods, with the exception of the choice between micro and macro data. When I correct the mean for the bias, for macro estimates I get zero, even though the reported t‐statistics are on average two. The corrected mean of micro estimates of the EIS for asset holders is around 0.3–0.4. Calibrations greater than 0.8 are inconsistent with the bulk of the empirical evidence.     

Social pressure in the stadiums: Do agents change behavior without crowd support?

Social pressure may have relevant consequences in many contexts but it is hard to evaluate it empirically. In this paper we exploit a natural experiment in soccer to provide clear evidence of its effects. We aim to study how social pressure from the crowd in a stadium affects both players and referees. While in normal matches crowd support may be correlated to a host of variables affecting the outcome of interest, we exploit the fact that after the health emergency for the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, soccer matches in top European Leagues have been allowed only behind closed doors, that is, without spectators in the stadiums. We use data of first and second division of five major European Leagues (Germany, Spain, England, Italy and Portugal) for the last 10 seasons and compare – using a differences-in-differences analysis – several outcomes (determined by players’ performance and referees’ decisions) of matches played with crowd support to the same outcomes when matches were played without crowd. We find considerable effects of the pressure from the crowd: while with the support of the crowd a considerable home advantage emerges in various measures of performance (points, goals, shots, etc.), this advantage is almost halved when matches are played behind closed doors. Similar effects are found for the behavior of referees: decisions of fouls, yellow cards, red cards and penalties that tend to favor home teams in normal matches, are much more balanced without the crowd pressing on referees. The evidence we provide strongly supports the idea that social pressure has intense effects on agents’ behavior.     

UNEMPLOYED BUT OPTIMISTIC: OPTIMAL INSURANCE DESIGN WITH BIASED BELIEFS

This paper analyzes how biased beliefs about employment prospects affect the optimal design of unemployment insurance. Empirically, I find that the unemployed greatly overestimate how quickly they will find work. As a consequence, they would search too little for work, save too little for unemployment and deplete their savings too rapidly when unemployed. I analyze the use of the “sufficient‐statistics” formula to characterize the optimal unemployment policy when beliefs are biased and revisit the desirability of providing liquidity to the unemployed. I also find that the optimal unemployment policy may involve increasing benefits during the unemployment spell.     

CHANGES IN CHINA'S WAGE STRUCTURE

Using a national sample of Urban Household Surveys, we document several profound changes in China's wage structure during a period of rapid economic growth. Between 1992 and 2007, the average real wage increased by 202%, accompanied by a sharp rise in wage inequality. Decomposition analysis reveals 80% of this wage growth to be attributable to higher pay for basic labor, rising returns to human capital, and increases in the state‐sector wage premium. By employing an aggregate production function framework, we account for the sources of wage growth and wage inequality amid fast economic growth and transition. We find capital accumulation, skill‐biased technological change, and rural–urban migration to be the major forces behind the evolving wage structure in urban China.     

基于信息熵的物流规划实证分析

本文采用信息熵不确定性评价方法对某物流园区规划进行了实证分析。经过实证分析表明,该物流规划方案的基础物流设施收益较低,但必须投资建设,汽车检测中心、信息中心能够带来较高的增值收益。本文还对比采用了投资收益分析,其结论与信息熵评价方法一致。     

The microeconometric estimation of treatment effects—An overview

Summary The need to evaluate the performance of active labour market policies is not questioned any longer. Even though OECD countries spend significant shares of national resources on these measures, unemployment rates remain high or even increase. We focus on microeconometric evaluation which has to solve the fundamental evaluation problem and overcome the possible occurrence of selection bias. When using non-experimental data, different evaluation approaches can be thought of. The aim of this paper is to review the most relevant estimators, discuss their identifying assumptions and their (dis-)advantages. Thereby we will present estimators based on some form of exogeneity (selection on observables) as well as estimators where selection might also occur on unobservable characteristics. Since the possible occurrence of effect heterogeneity has become a major topic in evaluation research in recent years, we will also assess the ability of each estimator to deal with it. Additionally, we will also discuss some recent extensions of the static evaluation framework to allow for dynamic treatment evaluation. The authors thank Stephan L. Thomsen, Christopher Zeiss and one anonymous referee for valuable comments. The usual disclaimer applies.