禽流感风险、多元化经营与中国养禽户家庭生计研究

现有研究普遍认为禽流感的发生会对养禽户家庭生计造成严重负向冲击,而统计数据显示禽流感发生之后养禽户家禽收入显著下降,但家庭收入仍呈上升趋势。 基于农村固定观察点 2 520 个养禽户 2004—2012 年家禽养殖跟踪数据,本文采用固定效应模型,分析禽流感冲击下养禽户家庭生计变化,探讨禽流感、多元化经营与中国养禽农户家庭生计之间的关系。 结果表明,禽流感的爆发确实对家禽养殖农户生计造成了巨大的冲击,但多元化经营可以削弱禽流感对养禽户家庭经营收入的负向影响,且相比于种植业,养禽户更倾向于通过增加畜牧业投入和非农就业投入来避免禽流感造成的家庭经营收入波动。 我国现有禽流感补偿政策仅按照扑杀数量发放,为制定更为精准的扑杀补偿标准和灾后扶持政策,应关注禽流感对养禽户生计冲击的农户异质性,充分考虑养禽户多元化经营状况,扩大政策关注范围,正确引导农户进行兼业经营。     

计算机建模协助公共政策的制定、执行与评估

越来越多的计算机模型被协助用于公共政策的制定、执行与评估。研究表明,计算机模型之所以能够在政策制定过程中发挥重要作用,是因为它允许政策制定者在虚拟世界中先行先试,这与随机对照试验(RCT)和政策试点相比无疑具有更大优势。在政策建模实践中提炼出的一般性经验包括:设计和使用模型的最大好处在于它提供了对政策的解读而不仅仅在于它所生成的数字;模型是在一定的抽象条件下设计的;尽管有时会缺乏用于校验的相关数据,但建模仍然是有价值的;建模的协作性要求使得模型被用于满足建模涉及的利益相关者目的的可能性增大;需要注意建模者与利益相关者之间的有效沟通;需要仔细考量公共政策建模涉及的道德问题。作为公共政策制定过程的一个组成部分,政策建模的重要性日益凸显,但如想将其潜能充分释放,则需要将计算机建模与政策制定的内在文化相融合。     

LSTAR框架下一类针对单位根原假设的F检验

在LSTAR框架下构建了检验单位根原假设的F类型统计量,并推导了其极限分布。相较于之前学者的研究,对LSTAR模型线性系数和位置参数的约束得以放松,因此更具有普适性;有限样本下的仿真模拟表明,相比较ADF统计量以及刘雪燕等(2008)提出的t统计量,F统计量在LSTAR框架下具有更大的检验势。对人民币实际汇率的PPP检验进一步印证了F检验在相关应用研究中的适用性和优越性。     

区域旅游经济空间差异的实证分析

文章基于统计学因子分析法测算了河北省各市旅游经济规模综合排名,通过系统聚类分析对各市进行分类,两种分析结果具有较高的一致性。利用引力模型对河北省各市旅游经济空间联系强度进行测算,进而对比分析各城市对周边区域旅游经济的辐射能力,借助ArcGIS10.5可视化11个城市的旅游经济空间联系网络图。结果发现:河北省旅游经济具有"双核四驱"的特征,即以石家庄、保定为核心的中部旅游带以及以秦皇岛、承德的东北部旅游带;城市旅游经济规模与旅游经济联系量不存在必然联系,石家庄旅游经济对周边城市的辐射带动效应最大,沧州最小。整体来看,形成了石家庄、保定、邢台、邯郸的旅游经济辐射圈。     

漫话心力管理故事(安全篇 之十三) 手机的这边和那边

刘鹏凯先生的《漫话心力管理故事》用漫画的手法,讲了120个管理故事,本刊自2014年第1期起,予以连续刊载,以飨读者。一天清晨,驾驶员小周送我去连云港参加一个会议。车子上了高速公路不足一刻钟,小周喊我:"刘总,前面是我们公司送货的车。"我抬头一看,还真是。赶上前去,我摇下车窗,朝货车驾驶员小吴挥了挥手。多么辛苦的员工啊!他们每天比太阳起得早,比星星睡得晚,不容易啊!     

工程质量政府监督多层次利益分配与激励协同机制探究

The implementation of the government supervision of the quality of the project is an international practice. The basic form of government supervision of engineering quality is government supervision on the quality behavior of the engineering main bodies and its results by the competent government department entrusted. Its essence is a dual principal-agent process. The frequent accidents of the engineering quality reflect the loss and failure of the government law enforcement supervision of the engineering quality to some extent. Its root lies in the lack of endogenous power in the law enforcement supervision of the project quality government supervisors in the law enforcement supervision. Therefore, the incentive coordination mechanism of the government supervision based on the multi-level interest distribution is worth explored. In views of the multi-level management system which is formed by the government departments, government quality supervision organizations, quality supervision team (or group) for the government supervision of engineering quality. The benefit distribution function between every party is constructed, and the game model of the multi-level incentive and coordination for the government supervision in engineering quality is built. To solve and deduce from the first stage of the cooperative game and the second stage of the non-cooperative game, the cooperative game can obtain the reward coefficient: . The coordination degree of the best effort can be obtained by the non cooperative game. The result shows that:the coordination degree of government engineering quality supervisor is related to the coordination costs, and had nothing to do with fixed costs. The benefit distribution coefficient not only depends on the efforts of the quality government monitors, but also on the efficiency of other parties' efforts. The quality supervisors of the project will also focus on the coordination with other parties when enhancing their management capabilities to improve the overall performance of project quality government supervision. The strategy of the incentive coordination mechanism for the supervision and cooperation of the project quality government is:the government quality supervision team should set up the supervisory team properly, improve the coordination efficiency and reduce the cost of supervision-coordination to maximize the value of self-motivation. Quality supervision team (or group) should establish the partnership to improve the coordination efficiency for achieving the maximization of their own incentive value.The model and conclusion of incentive synergy mechanism based on multi-level benefit allocation mechanism are researched. It can provide theoretical support and practice reference for the market governance and supervision of general public goods.     

基于动态面板数据分位数回归模型的福州市房价影响因素分析

房地产业作为基础性和先导性产业,对经济和社会的影响有着举足轻重的作用。因此,房价影响因素的探讨一直都是国内外的热点话题。该文在研究城市人口密度、家庭人均可支配收入以及利率对房价的影响机制的基础上,选取了福州市2010—2017年的样本数据,利用动态面板数据的分位数回归模型进行了实证分析。结果表明,家庭可支配人均收入和人口密度的增加对房价的正影响随着分位数的增加呈逐步上升的趋势,即福州房价上涨的主要因素是家庭人均可支配收入和城市人口密度,利率的变化并不是福州市房价变动的主导因素。