禽流感风险、多元化经营与中国养禽户家庭生计研究

现有研究普遍认为禽流感的发生会对养禽户家庭生计造成严重负向冲击,而统计数据显示禽流感发生之后养禽户家禽收入显著下降,但家庭收入仍呈上升趋势。 基于农村固定观察点 2 520 个养禽户 2004—2012 年家禽养殖跟踪数据,本文采用固定效应模型,分析禽流感冲击下养禽户家庭生计变化,探讨禽流感、多元化经营与中国养禽农户家庭生计之间的关系。 结果表明,禽流感的爆发确实对家禽养殖农户生计造成了巨大的冲击,但多元化经营可以削弱禽流感对养禽户家庭经营收入的负向影响,且相比于种植业,养禽户更倾向于通过增加畜牧业投入和非农就业投入来避免禽流感造成的家庭经营收入波动。 我国现有禽流感补偿政策仅按照扑杀数量发放,为制定更为精准的扑杀补偿标准和灾后扶持政策,应关注禽流感对养禽户生计冲击的农户异质性,充分考虑养禽户多元化经营状况,扩大政策关注范围,正确引导农户进行兼业经营。     

A decade after the Reform: political activism of the Chinese of West Kalimantan,Indonesia

Political reform after the departure of President Soeharto’s New Order (1966–1998) provided opportunities for previously oppressed social groups to express their concerns and to demand fair recognition. The results of this newly found freedom have been quite immediately visible in Jakarta, where social and political institutions spearheaded by Chinese originally sprouted. In the regions, political participation of ethnic Chinese has also grown; significantly in those regions with a large Chinese population. In West Kalimantan, the number of Chinese being elected to local parliaments in some regions has doubled. They have also contested numerous direct local executive elections since 2003 and have been successful in winning four posts: a mayor, a district head, a deputy district head, and a deputy governor. By looking at the case of West Kalimantan, this article will examine the factors behind the growth in Chinese political activism, the factors contributing to the success of Chinese candidates in elections, how the Chinese have influenced local and provincial politics, and the challenges they are facing.     

Feature screening in ultrahigh-dimensional additive Cox model

The additive Cox model is flexible and powerful for modelling the dynamic changes of regression coefficients in the survival analysis. This paper is concerned with feature screening for the additive Cox model with ultrahigh-dimensional covariates. The proposed screening procedure can effectively identify active predictors. That is, with probability tending to one, the selected variable set includes the actual active predictors. In order to carry out the proposed procedure, we propose an effective algorithm and establish the ascent property of the proposed algorithm. We further prove that the proposed procedure possesses the sure screening property. Furthermore, we examine the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure via Monte Carlo simulations, and illustrate the proposed procedure by a real data example.     

Unsettling research versus activism: how might critical disability studies disrupt traditional research boundaries?

Abstract

This article responds to the call for producing activist-oriented scholarship by engaging with theoretical and methodological approaches that explore the inclusion of women and girls with disabilities in Vietnam. We consider possibilities for connecting different forms of knowledge and activism by reflecting on research practices designed to foster social change. Specifically, we ask: how can critical disability studies be more reflexive about knowledge which privileges particular ways of knowing from the Global North? What alternative possibilities can exist to foster more inclusive and transformative knowledge that tackles systemic forms of oppressions in colonial and postcolonial contexts? Reflecting on an ongoing collaborative project in Vietnam, we argue that critical disability studies which engages with different forms of activism through critical reflections on our privileges can tackle exclusion by opening a new platform for debating social justice transnationally.     

高校思想政治理论课“三进”方式方法探析——以《马克思主义基本原理概论》为例

为了让习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想“进教材、进课堂、进头脑”，需要从方式、方法层面进行分析。在深耕教材的基础上，发现2018版《马克思主义基本原理概论》教材在融入习思想时，依据不同内容主要采取了文献参考式、引入说明式、说明原理式、补充创新式、替代更新式等方法。为有效做好教材体系向教学体系转换，针对教材中对习思想融入的不同方式，可以因内容分别或组合选择活动拓展法、课前一语法、习近平话语中心式教学法、问题式教学法、案例教学法等。在转化过程中，在方法论上必须坚持马克思主义辩证法，具体问题具体分析，做到转化有法但无定法；在转化的内容和方法的关系上，必须坚持内容和方法的有机统一，从习思想和教材整体视角审视转化，处理好整体与部分的关系；在思政课的价值引领方面，必须处理好真理与价值的关系，把转化最终落脚于价值转化，使习思想真正入脑、入心。     

红色文化增进铸牢中华民族共同体意识的多维向度解析

红色文化是中国革命建设征程的历史凝结,补钙壮骨,通今溯源,与中华民族共同体意识有着严密的耦合逻辑。在政治上,红色文化有利于坚定中国共产党的领导,明晰铸牢中华民族共同体意识的政治前提;在经济上,红色文化彰显社会主义市场经济的民族互惠指向,夯实铸牢中华民族共同体意识的经济基础;在文化上,红色文化标注社会主义先进文化建设的中国底色,聚合中华民族共同体建设的文化动力;在社会上,红色文化促进各民族交往交流交融,提升铸牢中华民族共同体意识的社会认知;在生态上,红色文化有助于建立人与自然交响协奏的生命共同体,筑牢中华民族共同家园的生态底线。     

The competing risks analysis for parallel and series systems using Type-II progressive censoring

Abstract

Recently, the study of the lifetime of systems in reliability and survival analysis in the presence of several causes of failure (competing risks) has attracted attention in the literature. In this paper, series and parallel systems with exponential lifetime for each item of the system are considered. Several causes of failure independently affect lifetime distributions and observations of failure times of the systems are considered under progressive Type-II censored scheme. For series systems, the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters are computed and confidence intervals for parameters of the model are obtained using Fisher information matrix. For parallel systems, the generalized EM algorithm which uses the Newton-Raphson algorithm inside the EM algorithm is used to compute the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters. Also, the standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are computed by using the supplemented EM algorithm. The simulation study confirms the good performance of the introduced approach.     

值班律师的角色定位与制度探究

2018年修改的《刑事诉讼法》把值班律师制度作为基本制度规定下来，这是辩护制度的重大突破和进步，法律上对诉讼权利的保障，是反映一国刑事诉讼法治化程度的重要标志之一。值班律师参与刑事诉讼并不当然地具有辩护人的诉讼地位，值班律师的应然定位应当是特殊的法律援助律师。值班律师制度具有推动程序正义实现和促进诉讼效率提升的内在价值，还具有弥补法律援助制度短板、推动审前程序状态合理优化和促进认罪认罚从宽制度良好运行的外在价值。但是，值班律师依然存在一些现实困惑，对这些困惑、问题的破解，正是改善值班律师制度的有效进路。     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.     

The disaster relief and social work after the Wenchuan earthquake in Mainland China

ABSTRACT

This paper mainly focuses on the development of disaster social work in Mainland China and the intervention of social work in disaster relief. Before the Wenchuan earthquake and in the initial stage of post-earthquake, disaster social work was mainly based on individual psychotherapy; from the earthquake to the year of 2012 in which post-earthquake recovery and reconstruction was completed, the disaster relief began to emphasise community building and integration, while the basic framework for disaster social work was also established. Social workers begin to explore the new mode of developmental and localised disaster social work. By combining with the practical experiences from disaster social work, this paper tries to highlight the dilemmas confronting disaster relief in Mainland China and put forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, which could improve the future disaster relief system in Mainland China.