The social “R & D” paradigm in child and youth services: Building knowledge convivially

Adaptation of agricultural and industrial research and development models offers new methods for bridging the worlds of research and practice in child and youth services. Social R & D methodologies provide effective means for generating new social technologies because they are product oriented and use a wide array of traditional and nontraditional data sources. This article discusses one social R & D paradigm—Developmental Research and Utilization. Permanency planning and community support systems research are used to illustrate the past and potential application of this methodology to the field of child and youth services.     

Alcohol abuse on a college campus: A needs assessment

This paper reports the results of a needs assessment study conducted by a university-based alcohol abuse prevention project. Data are presented on the drinking patterns and drinking problems of a random sample of 462 students. Results suggest that students are experiencing numerous difficulties in the physical, educational, legal and psychosocial areas due to their use of alcoholic beverages. Implications for prevention and intervention programming are discussed and the need for planning programs from a data-based perspective rather than a rational and intuitive approach is stressed.     

Are services to prevent foster care effective?

The prevention of foster care became an important issue for child welfare services during the 1970s. Two main types of prevention models have emerged: crisis intervention programs intended to prevent imminent placement and intensive service programs designed to avert those crisis situations that precipitate placement. A critical analysis of several project evaluations leads to the conclusion that neither model has been markedly successful. Low nominal project placement rates seem attributable to inability to predict placements and to client selection biases. From a strictly financial perspective, preventive services have been considerably more expensive than regular services, including temporary family foster care. Data from a new demonstration project in New Jersey illustrate various problems in providing and evaluating preventive services to families referred to protective service agencies. Implications of the findings for prevention programs and policies are discussed, and a new direction focused on truly early intervention with children and families is proposed.     

Gamesmanship for internal evaluators: Knowing when to “hold 'em” and when to “fold 'em”

This article discusses the ethical conflicts between an internal evaluator's altruistic social reform motivation and an organization's practical survival motivation. The internal evaluator might encounter (a) pressure to downplay negative and emphasize positive findings; (b) reinforcement for nonthreatening, routine evaluation activities; (c) greater interest in making the evaluation unit visible than in using evaluation results; or (d) reduced access to privileged information.     

The impact of P.L. 93-641, the National Health Planning and Resources Development Act, upon health and mental health programming

Federal legislation regarding health care in the U.S. has increased rapidly in the past few years. A major law with potential far-reaching effects was enacted as a result of increasing legislation and rising health care costs. This law,The National Health Planning and Resources Development Act,has created a network of over 200 local, mostly nongovernment units, called health systems agencies. These agencies are responsible for areawide health planning, plan implementation, review and approval of federal health care expenditures for local programs, and facilities review. They will affect health and mental health programs at the local level. The article is directed to local health and mental health care providers who will, of necessity, deal directly with the local HSA's.     

The macroeconomics of fertility in small open economies: A test of the Becker-Barro model for The Netherlands and New Zealand

Becker and Barro (1988) formulated a theoretical model which identified a range of macroeconomic variables which can temporarily or permanently affect fertility in small open economies. This article tests the Becker-Barro model with relevant data which covers most of the 20th century for two small open economies, namely The Netherlands and New Zealand. The results show that government subsidies for having children have a strong positive effect on fertility, while the provision of public pensions has a strong negative effect. The degree of intergenerational altruism appears to have been declining. Moreover, there is only weak support for the hypothesis that real interest rates positively influence fertility. Received: 2 March 1998/Accepted: 1 September 1999     

International cooperation in stockpiles and tariffs for coping with oil supply disruptions

This paper provides a unified treatment of oil stockpiling and demand restraint as policy responses for enhancing energy security and examines the implications of recent changes in the structure and performance of the international oil market for the design of policies. These issues are addressed using a dynamic programming framework in which international policy actions of key oil-importing countries are modeled as a Nash dynamic game. Significant policy implications from the analysis include: (1) the result that, with realistic assumptions about disruption risks and inventory capacities, differences between noncooperative and coordinated stockpile policies appear to be minor and (2) significant mutual gains could be reaped from a modest degree of collective restraint on normal market oil demand. The broader role of international cooperation in enhancing energy security is also discussed.     

Characterizations of geometric distribution and discrete IFR (DFR) distributions using order statistics

Let X be a discrete random variable the set of possible values (finite or infinite) of which can be arranged as an increasing sequence of real numbers a₁<a₂<a₃<…. In particular, a_i could be equal to i for all i. Let X_1n≦X_2n≦?≦X_nn denote the order statistics in a random sample of size n drawn from the distribution of X, where n is a fixed integer ≧2. Then, we show that for some arbitrary fixed k(2≦k≦n), independence of the event {X_kn=X_1n} and X_1n is equivalent to X being either degenerate or geometric. We also show that the montonicity in i of P{X_kn = X_1n | X_1n = a_i} is equivalent to X having the IFR (DFR) property. Let a_i = i and $\text{G(i) = P(X≧i), i = 1, 2, …}$. We prove that the independence of {X_2n ? X_1n ∈B} and X_1n for all i is equivalent to X being geometric, where B = {m} (B = {m,m+1,…}), provided G(i) = q^i?1, 1≦i≦m+2 (1≦i≦m+1), where 0<q<1.