《苏日中立条约》与东北抗日联军的"战略转移"

本文论述了第二次世界大战期间苏联在与日本缔结中立条约的过程中与中国东北抗联的关系,剖析了1940年底东北抗联进入并滞留苏联境内的原因,解析了《苏日中立条约》的签订对中国东北抗日斗争的消极影响。由此认为,东北抗日联军的所谓“战略转移”,并非是主动选择,在很大程度上是一种无奈之举。     

新经济下客户经济竞争战略探究

中国正在进入以客户为主导的客户经济时代。鉴于此,笔者分析了客户经济是一种新经济的原因,并对客户经济战略思想的优势进行了客观、详尽的剖析,最终提出企业面对客户经济竞争战略的应对措施。     

西安高新区战略性新兴产业创新能力评价研究

战略性新兴产业具有战略性、成长性和创新性,科技创新是其发展的灵魂,研究其创新能力具有重要意义。综合运用因子分析和聚类分析对西安高新区七大战略性新兴产业24个细分行业创新能力进行评价,结果显示创新能力主要体现为创新转化能力、创新保障能力和创新实现能力。根据评价结果将产业划分为领先型、优势型和潜力型产业,在此基础上提出相关政策建议。     

Calculation of Phase 2 dose-finding study sample size for reliable Phase 3 dose selection

Sample sizes of Phase 2 dose-finding studies, usually determined based on a power requirement to detect a significant dose–response relationship, will generally not provide adequate precision for Phase 3 target dose selection. We propose to calculate the sample size of a dose-finding study based on the probability of successfully identifying the target dose within an acceptable range (e.g., 80%–120% of the target) using the multiple comparison and modeling procedure (MCP-Mod). With the proposed approach, different design options for the Phase 2 dose-finding study can also be compared. Due to inherent uncertainty around an assumed true dose–response relationship, sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the sample size calculations to deviations from modeling assumptions are recommended. Planning for a hypothetical Phase 2 dose-finding study is used to illustrate the main points. Codes for the proposed approach is available at https://github.com/happysundae/posMCPMod .     

The Theory of Global Games on Test: Experimental Analysis of Coordination Games with Public and Private Information

The theory of global games has shown that coordination games with multiple equilibria may have a unique equilibrium if certain parameters of the payoff function are private information instead of common knowledge. We report the results of an experiment designed to test the predictions of this theory. Comparing sessions with common and private information, we observe only small differences in behavior. For common information, subjects coordinate on threshold strategies that deviate from the global game solution towards the payoff‐dominant equilibrium. For private information, thresholds are closer to the global game solution than for common information. Variations in the payoff function affect behavior as predicted by comparative statics of the global game solution. Predictability of coordination points is about the same for both information conditions.     

考虑策略性消费者的生鲜农产品定价和库存决策

消费者的策略性行为使零售商的生鲜农产品的定价和库存决策面临更大挑战。本文基于报童模型,综合考虑消费者的策略性行为,对生鲜农产品价值下降进行离散化处理。刻画策略性消费者的决策行为,构建零售商的单阶段和两阶段定价及库存决策模型,分析了产品价值剩余率对消费者行为、零售商最优定价、最优库存水平以及零售商利润的影响机理。研究发现,在单阶段模型中零售商最优价格和最优库存水平均随产品价值剩余率的递增而递增;而在两阶段模型中,第二阶段最优价格随价值剩余率的变化趋势可能存在阈值。     

Strategy,local sociology,political philosophy: Analysis of strategy of Non‐Governmental Organizations under radical intellectual leadership

The study discusses the relationship between NGO strategy (both toward government and community), contextual conditions, and the sociological and political‐philosophic background of the leaders of the organization. The empirical section focuses on a specific Israeli NGO (Bimkom) led by a radical‐intellectual leadership whose aim is to promote the interests of poor communities. The organization under research activated a dual complex strategy, one that both criticizes and negotiates with the government, at the same time advocating for and empowering communities. The study points to a clear linkage between that strategy and leaders' own background. In fact, the latter served as a source from which the leaders carved out guidelines, perceptions, policy tools, and abstract resources (which in turn also affected outcomes). On a basis of these findings, the study suggests a model designed to improve the analysis of strategic management.     

Strategizing for social change in nonprofit contexts: A typology of communication approaches in public communication campaigns

Public communication campaigns aim to create social change by influencing audiences’ behaviors and thus help nonprofit organizations fulfill their mission. These campaigns, however, often fail to deliver their anticipated impact. Using public relations research as a theoretical lens, this paper's contribution is twofold: first, we develop a typology that classifies the different communication approaches used in public communication campaigns. Based on one of the most prominent public relations theories, the Four Models of Public Relations, we differentiate communication approaches along the dimensions of communication purpose and communication style. Combining these two dimensions in a typology, we identify the following communication approaches: directing, platforming, mobilizing, and involving. We provide numerous real‐life examples of public campaigns for each one. Second, we formulate propositions about these communication approaches’ effectiveness relying on a key concept of public relations research: namely, audience segmentation. Using the transtheoretical model, we show that audiences can be segmented along five “stages of readiness to adopt a promoted behavior.” Conceptualizing behavior change as an iterative, dynamic process that entails stage progresses as well as backdrops, we derive how audiences’ “stage of readiness” relates to the effectiveness of the identified communication approaches.     

Employer‐oriented labour market policies in Sweden: Creating jobs and the division of labour in the public sector

In many European countries, greater importance is accorded to labour market policies in which employers are involved in activating unemployed people. Such employer‐oriented policies target employers’ demand for labour and attempt to influence their willingness to hire, train or guide (often disadvantaged) unemployed groups. Using data from a qualitative interview study of an employer‐oriented programme in a medium‐size city in Sweden, the present article aims to develop knowledge about how these policies are used to influence employers to hire unemployed workers and how jobs created in this context differ from regular jobs. The article argues that creating jobs through new arrangements for the division of labour, with the promise of relieving regular staff of unskilled tasks, may influence employers’ willingness to hire the unemployed when used alongside other kinds of policy instruments. However, the article also shows that this new division of labour, with programme participants performing mainly unskilled tasks, has been difficult to realize, as new staff gradually come to perform an increasing number of regular working tasks.     

基于战略风险投资的融资契约设计及融资决策

初创企业融资过程中, 融资的对象以及合同的设计会对初创企业的经营状态以及社会福利水平产生重要影响.本文将融资的对象分为仅仅追求货币收益的风险投资家和同时追求货币收益及战略目标的战略投资者, 并基于此在阶段性融资背景下考察了单个投资者、多个独立投资者以及辛迪加组织这三类融资方式中融资对象的选择和融资契约的设计, 最后以社会福利水平最优为首要目标、企业预期收益最大为次要目标为企业家提供最优的融资决策.通过分析表明一个最优的融资决策应当包含最优的融资方式和最优的融资对象.关于融资方式, 辛迪加组织提供融资可行时, 企业家应寻求辛迪加组织融资且这种融资方式总是社会有效率的;辛迪加组织提供融资不可行时, 企业家应寻求多个独立的投资者融资, 但这种融资方式无法实现最优的社会福利水平.关于融资对象, 企业家应选择努力水平与一阶最优努力水平最为接近的投资者.