Semiparametric Additive Accelerated Life Models

In this paper we investigate the asymptotic properties of estimators obtained for the semiparametric additive accelerated life model proposed by Bagdonavicius & Nikulin (1995). This model generalizes the well known additive hazards model of survival analysis and is close to the general transformation model (see Dabrowska & Doksum, 1988). Asymptotic properties of the estimator of the regression parameter and the estimator of the reliability function are given in the case of right censoring for discretized data and a numerical example illustrates these results.     

Efficacy of programmes for the unemployed: discrete time modelling of duration data from a matched-comparison study

An evaluation is described of two UK Government programmes for the long-term unemployed in Great Britain, Employment Training and Employment Action, using discrete time hazard modelling of event histories. The study design employed a closely matched comparison group and carefully chosen control variables to minimize the effect of selection bias on conclusions. The effect of unobserved heterogeneity is investigated by using some standard random effect model formulations.     

Biased Bootstrap Methods for Reducing the Effects of Contamination

Contamination of a sampled distribution, for example by a heavy-tailed distribution, can degrade the performance of a statistical estimator. We suggest a general approach to alleviating this problem, using a version of the weighted bootstrap. The idea is to 'tilt' away from the contaminated distribution by a given (but arbitrary) amount, in a direction that minimizes a measure of the new distribution's dispersion. This theoretical proposal has a simple empirical version, which results in each data value being assigned a weight according to an assessment of its influence on dispersion. Importantly, distance can be measured directly in terms of the likely level of contamination, without reference to an empirical measure of scale. This makes the procedure particularly attractive for use in multivariate problems. It has several forms, depending on the definitions taken for dispersion and for distance between distributions. Examples of dispersion measures include variance and generalizations based on high order moments. Practicable measures of the distance between distributions may be based on power divergence, which includes Hellinger and Kullback–Leibler distances. The resulting location estimator has a smooth, redescending influence curve and appears to avoid computational difficulties that are typically associated with redescending estimators. Its breakdown point can be located at any desired value ε∈ (0, ½) simply by 'trimming' to a known distance (depending only on ε and the choice of distance measure) from the empirical distribution. The estimator has an affine equivariant multivariate form. Further, the general method is applicable to a range of statistical problems, including regression.     

大熊猫主食竹种微量元素研究

用原子吸收分光光度法测定了卧龙自然保护区大熊猫主食竹种——冷箭竹(Bashania fangiana)、拐棍竹(Fargesia robusta)、华西箭竹(Fargesia nit-ida)、峨眉玉山竹(Yushaia chungii)的叶、笋——幼竹、一年杆、二年杆兵208例中的 Cu、Zn、Mn、Fe、Ca、Mg、K 等七种元素含量.找到了微量元素含量与竹类、竹龄、竹株部位、竹的生长环境(海拔高度、季节)以及与大熊猫食性等的关系。     

水力发电企业整体效益评价及实例

针对水力发电企业的整体经济效益难以进行评价的问题,提出了以灰色关联度技术为支撑,选择数量模型评价方法,应用层次分析法的有关技术和思想,建立起具有可操作性的评价模型及评价体系。     

回旋管及回旋潘尼管的动力学理论

本文发展了目前回旋管的动力学理论。用动力学方法,描述了回旋潘尼管的不稳定性机理,求解了偶极电流。这样,本文提出的理论,不仅可以更为精确地描写回旋管,而且可以描写新近出现的回旋潘尼管。     

人机工程学的发展及人机系统的可靠性

本文介绍了人机工程学(工效学)这一新兴边缘学科的研究内容、发展及现状,讨论了人-机系统的可靠性并着重讨论了人的操作可靠性,探讨了按人为差错进行可靠性分析与可靠性估计的人为差错和可靠性分析逻辑推演法(HERALD法)及系统能力方法(SC方法)。 本文的结论可供系统管理工作者及设计工作者,特别是可靠性管理及可靠性设计工作者参考。     

Strong previsions of random elements

LetC be a class of arbitrary real random elements andP an extended real valued function onC. Two definitions of coherence forP are compared. Both definitions reduce to the classical de Finetti's one whenC includes bounded random elements only. One of the two definitions (called strong coherence) is investigated, and some criteria for checking it are provided. Moreover, conditions are given for the integral representation of a coherentP, possibly with respect to a δ-additive probability. Finally, the two definitions and the integral representation theorems are extended to the case whereC is a class of random elements taking values in a given Banach space.     

Overcoming biases and misconceptions in ecological studies

The aggregate data study design provides an alternative group level analysis to ecological studies in the estimation of individual level health risks. An aggregate model is derived by aggregating a plausible individual level relative rate model within groups, such that population-based disease rates are modelled as functions of individual level covariate data. We apply an aggregate data method to a series of fictitious examples from a review paper by Greenland and Robins which illustrated the problems that can arise when using the results of ecological studies to make inference about individual health risks. We use simulated data based on their examples to demonstrate that the aggregate data approach can address many of the sources of bias that are inherent in typical ecological analyses, even though the limited between-region covariate variation in these examples reduces the efficiency of the aggregate study. The aggregate method has the potential to estimate exposure effects of interest in the presence of non-linearity, confounding at individual and group levels, effect modification, classical measurement error in the exposure and non-differential misclassification in the confounder.     

The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: Duration analysis of British data

The annual 5% increase in tobacco taxes in real terms proposed in the recent White Paper on smoking has reaffirmed the commitment of successive UK Governments to above-inflation increases in tobacco taxation to encourage people to stop smoking. This paper presents evidence on the determinants of starting and quitting smoking by using data from the British Health and Lifestyle Survey and is the first to identify tax elasticities for starting and quitting smoking using British data. Self-reported individual smoking histories are coupled with a long time series for the tax rate on cigarettes to construct a longitudinal data set. Estimates are obtained for the effect of above-inflation tax rises on the age of starting smoking and the number of years of smoking. The estimates of the tax elasticity of the age of starting smoking are 0.16 for men and 0.08 for women. The estimates of the tax elasticity of quitting are −0.60 for men and −0.46 for women. These are robust to different specifications.