舆论领袖传播影响力的阶段式建模分析

在网络社会,无论是网络推手炒作谣言,还是官方微博积极应对,都可视作舆论领袖在舆情演化过程中发挥传播影响力。本文将舆情演化过程分为两个阶段,在两个阶段分别应用不同的仿真模型对不同作用舆论领袖的传播影响力进行分析。第一个阶段是舆情危机爆发阶段,即舆情危机"从无到有",分析网络推手在该阶段的扩散影响力,以SIR经典传染病模型为基础,构建包含有网络推手作用的扩散影响力模型;第二个阶段是舆情危机平息阶段,即舆情危机"从有到无",分析官方微博在该阶段的证伪影响力,以Lotka-Volterra竞争关系模型为基础,研究官方微博如何发挥证伪影响力与网络推手进行博弈。结合具体舆情实例对阶段式模型进行验证分析,并提出如何根据舆论领袖不同传播作用应对舆情危机相关政策建议,以期帮助决策者打击网络谣言、平息舆情危机。     

基于一种半开式滑槽球副的3-PSP并联平台设计

提出在并联机构中应用一种1移动3转动半开式滑槽球副结构,该运动副将1个移动副和1个球副集成为一个复合的运动副,可以缩短并联机构中支链的尺寸链,有助于提高并联机构精度。基于半开式滑槽球副设计了一种3自由度(3-DOF)PSP三轴并联平台,通过对此机构进行的运动分析和支链的精度分析,导出各个支链的逆解方程,同时根据影响支链运动精度的各个因素给出支链系统误差的线性补偿方程,证明此并联机构具有易于控制、运动精度高的优势。     

3D打印中CAD文件的定性与复制问题研究

3D打印技术的发展使著作权法上的复制变得更为高效便捷,由此产生了一系列亟待梳理和解决的问题。基于3D打印技术原理,可将其分为输入和输出两个环节。在输入环节,对CAD文件的作品类型进行规制,采用视觉标准界定立体作品,并以“美术作品+模型作品”的思路进行综合保护;在输出环节,3D打印属于复制,且可以实现从平面到立体和从立体到立体的复制形态,复制权的控制范围应不限于现行法律所列举的方式。针对3D打印技术在网络传播中的侵权风险,应对合理使用中的私人复制予以限制,灵活运用“三步检验标准”对合理性进行审查。3D打印在著作权法方面并未引发新的法律问题,现行制度已存在包容空间,不必为其特设著作权新规,通过对现有规则的解释和借助已有案例的适用经验便能解决可预见的著作权法争端。     

一基于SEM的经济发展与社会发展关系——以济南市为例

利用济南市2001—2013年的数据,构建济南市经济与社会发展关系的结构方程模型(SEM),考量经济发展的4个潜变量(经济水平、经济结构、经济增速、经济物耗)与社会发展的4个潜变量(居民的生活质量、社会稳定、人口素质、生态环境)间的相互影响,结果表明,居民生活质量正相关于人口素质和经济水平,人口素质正相关于经济水平;居民生活质量作用于社会稳定,而社会稳定是生活质量的固有要求;生态环境负相关于经济增速和经济物耗。     

Influence diagnostics for the Weibull-Negative-Binomial regression model with cure rate under latent failure causes

In this paper, we propose a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming that the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the Negative Binomial distribution and the time to event follows a Weibull distribution. Indeed, we introduce the Weibull-Negative-Binomial (WNB) distribution, which can be used in order to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing and some non-monotonous shaped. Another advantage of the proposed model is that it has some distributions commonly used in lifetime analysis as particular cases. Moreover, the proposed model includes as special cases some of the well-know cure rate models discussed in the literature. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation of a WNB model with cure rate. Then, we derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to perform global influence analysis. Finally, the methodology is illustrated on a medical data.     

曲线分类建模方法及其在GDP预测中的应用

传统方法解决大规模时序曲线的预测建模问题,需要对每条曲线逐一建模,使得建模工作量相当庞大,在实际应用中缺乏可操作性。文章提出一种解决此问题的新方法——曲线分类建模方法。该方法先减少曲线的模型种类,再进行曲线分类和分类建模,在尽可能保留原始信息的前提下较大程度地降低了建模的工作量。文章阐述了该方法的原理和计算过程,并以应用于多地区GDP曲线的预测案例说明该方法的实用性和有效性。     

Migration Decisions of Dual-earner Families: An Application of Multilevel Modeling

A comprehensive framework for guiding analyses of internal migration is lacking. This study contributes to the family migration literature in three important ways. We develop a multilevel theoretical framework emphasizing an integration of individual-, family-, and neighborhood-level effects; introduce multilevel statistical modeling; and explicitly assess how effects of economic-based explanatory variables vary by gender. Our data are from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). We find that the likelihood of a family migrating is affected by economic and non-economic factors, some of which vary by gender. We add to the dual-earner migration literature by finding that wives are not likely to be tied-movers, but husbands are likely to be tied-stayers. Neighborhood factors also are important to the decision to migrate.

莫言小说《丰乳肥臀》中的3D细节描写

3D细节描写是一种立体的3D视角,能将平面的画面直观地显现成3维的立体画面。《丰乳肥臀》中有大量的细节描写,有一部分是明显的3D描写,让读者融入情景、直观感受。尽管莫言不是有意识进行3D描写,但有意识地立体地细节描写写出了3D效果。     

The functional patterns of adolescent mothers leaving foster care: Results from a cluster analysis

Few studies have explored the outcomes of adolescent mothers leaving foster care, especially using person‐oriented methods. The current study employed a cluster analysis to identify unique patterns of functioning among adolescent mothers aged 19 (n = 777). Data from the National Youth in Transition Database and the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System were utilized. Findings revealed five subpopulations characterized by distinct constellations of outcomes at age 19. The largest group (43%) exhibited competent functioning across all the domains studied—its members were connected to school and/or employment and did not experience homelessness, substance abuse referrals, or incarceration during the past 2 years (i.e., “resilient”). A relatively small group (12%) exhibited challenges across all the above‐referenced domains, whereas the remaining groups presented challenges in some domains, but not in others. Follow‐up analyses revealed that adolescent mothers classified as resilient at age 19 had the lowest rates of congregate care placements and the highest rates of nonrelative foster care placements at age 17. Moreover, they had lower placement instability and higher rates of extended foster care as compared with members of the other clusters. Implications for practice, policy, and research are discussed.     

Contribution analysis to analyze the effects of the health impact assessment at the local level: A case of urban revitalization

The health impact assessment (HIA) is a tool used to estimate the potential impact on health of non-health-related proposals prior to implementation. While it is increasingly used in Quebec, Canada, studies have not analyzed its medium-term impacts and potential long-term impacts. We conducted a contribution analysis using in-depth interviews with key stakeholders, as well as documents, observation and images related to HIA in order to analyze its impacts on the revitalization of road infrastructure, parks and green spaces, and residential housing. Our analysis not only reflects on the decision-making process through the adoption and implementation of HIA recommendations, but also on the link between actions implemented in the field and health outcomes.