风险刑法及其适用领域研究

风险刑法成立的正当性在于公正的风险分配只有通过刑法才能实现。需要通过刑法分配的风险类型,即"风险犯"的存在范围是相当有限的,风险刑法理论的应用应当是限缩的。扩张风险刑法理论源于忽略了刑法语境下,风险社会理论与刑法理论的融合性对接。考察风险类型化分布领域,风险刑法的适用限于公共安全领域比较恰当。     

企业履行废弃产品回收责任影响因素研究

运用扎根理论构建了影响中国家电企业履行废弃产品回收责任的因素指标,以此为基础设计调查问卷和开展大样本调研,并通过验证性因子分析方法（CFA）对所提炼的关键因素进行了实证检验,系统揭示了其影响机理,提出了相应的对策建议。研究结果显示,废弃产品回收处置成本、企业环保意识、政策法规、消费者环保意识、消费者参与回收的行为是影响家电生产企业履行废弃产品回收责任的5个主要因素,其中政策法规因素起着主导作用,企业和消费者的环保意识及回收习惯在影响企业履行废弃产品回收责任的过程中扮演重要角色,而回收成本在5个因素中解释力度最小。     

极端情况下对我国股市风险的实证研究

准确地度量风险是对风险进行有效管理的前提也是投资者做出合理的投资决策的基础,然而在极端事件频繁发生的情况下,传统的VaR计算方法难以准确地度量股市风险,极值理论却可以很好地解决这一问题。本文特别关注了由2007年美国"次贷" 危机所引发的全球金融危机爆发时我国股市的风险度量问题,考虑到全球股市间极端事件的联动效应,利用基于极值理论的POT模型对上证综指日收益率的尾部数据直接建模拟合分布,进而计算出风险值VaR和CVaR,通过比较危机前后的风险值,发现随着金融危机的到来,我国股市的风险有了一定程度的释放。     

Communicating Actionable Risk for Terrorism and Other Hazards⋆

We propose a shift in emphasis when communicating to people when the objective is to motivate household disaster preparedness actions. This shift is to emphasize the communication of preparedness actions (what to do about risk) rather than risk itself. We have called this perspective “communicating actionable risk,” and it is grounded in diffusion of innovations and communication theories. A representative sample of households in the nation was analyzed using a path analytic framework. Preparedness information variables (including content, density, and observation), preparedness mediating variables (knowledge, perceived effectiveness, and milling), and preparedness actions taken were modeled. Clear results emerged that provide a strong basis for communicating actionable risk, and for the conclusion both that information observed (seeing preparedness actions that other have taken) and information received (receiving recommendations about what preparedness actions to take) play key, although different, roles in motivating preparedness actions among the people in our nation.     

A Review of Risk Perceptions and Other Factors that Influence Flood Mitigation Behavior

In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals’ high‐risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already‐adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds.     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

OIL AND THE MACROECONOMY: A QUANTITATIVE STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS

We model an open economy where macroeconomic variables fluctuate in response to oil supply shocks, as well as aggregate demand and supply shocks generated domestically and abroad. We use several robust predictions of the model to identify five fundamental shocks underlying the fluctuations of the (real) oil price, the US activity and the global business cycle. The estimates show that supply shocks generated in the global economy explain the largest fraction of the oil price fluctuations, about four times more than canonical oil supply shocks. The correlation between oil prices and the US activity varies with the type of shock.     

Is CSR the panacea for SMEs? A study of socially responsible SMEs during economic crisis

There is increasing research attention as to how SMEs might realize corporate social responsibility opportunities. Most studies focus on the pursuance of responsible business strategies that result in favourable business outcomes. This study investigates SMEs who actively participate in CSR activities in a south-eastern European country during the economic crisis of the Eurozone. Data collected reveals that stakeholder salience and proximity moderate the relationship between CSR and financial performance. The context of this study is important as it addresses the paucity of research carried out in countries during economic crisis and sheds light on the positive aspects of CSR practices adopted during crisis.     

Dependence and uncertainty in broker strategies of research intermediaries

This study examines how a research intermediary can successfully manage collaboration among research partners, while mitigating resource dependence in multi-partner programs. For that purpose, two fundamentally different strategies are explored: tertius gaudens and tertius iungens. Previous literature has not addressed the possibility that the effective deployment of tertius broker strategies may be contingent on multiple factors. Using a qualitative in-depth case study, we contribute to the literature by showing that the effective development of the tertius broker strategies in our study context is contingent on partner type, business integration and product readiness.     

危机领导力的理论模型构建:基于中国机长刘传健案例的质性研究

基于领导力的视角并围绕中国机长刘传健的典型案例,通过收集新闻媒体报道,以及对刘传健本人深度访谈、对管理人员访谈和对专业人员访谈共4类案例研究数据,采用经典扎根理论对转录后近29万字的案例资料进行编码,构建了危机领导力的概念和结构,最终提出了危机领导力六力(FLIGHT)模型,以此探索危机应对与管理的有效模式。研究结果发现,危机领导力包含6个维度:预警力、担当力、信念力、驾驭力、凝聚力和成长力。最后,将该模型同已有的危机管理模型进行了比较和分析,并讨论了研究结果的理论意义以及对危机中组织管理的实践启示。