On Rates of Convergence for Bayesian Density Estimation

Abstract.  We consider the problem of estimating a compactly supported density taking a Bayesian nonparametric approach. We define a Dirichlet mixture prior that, while selecting piecewise constant densities, has full support on the Hellinger metric space of all commonly dominated probability measures on a known bounded interval. We derive pointwise rates of convergence for the posterior expected density by studying the speed at which the posterior mass accumulates on shrinking Hellinger neighbourhoods of the sampling density. If the data are sampled from a strictly positive, α -Hölderian density, with α  ∈ ( 0,1] , then the optimal convergence rate n^{− α / (2 α +1)} is obtained up to a logarithmic factor. Smoothing histograms by polygons, a continuous piecewise linear estimator is obtained that for twice continuously differentiable, strictly positive densities satisfying boundary conditions attains a rate comparable up to a logarithmic factor to the convergence rate n ^−4/5 for integrated mean squared error of kernel type density estimators.     

Almost Consistent Estimation of Panel Probit Models with “Small” Fixed Effects

We propose four different GMM estimators that allow almost consistent estimation of the structural parameters of panel probit models with fixed effects for the case of small Tand large N. The moments used are derived for each period from a first order approximation of the mean of the dependent variable conditional on explanatory variables and on the fixed effect. The estimators differ w.r.t. the choice of instruments and whether they use trimming to reduce the bias or not. In a Monte Carlo study, we compare these estimators with pooled probit and conditional logit estimators for different data generating processes. The results show that the proposed estimators outperform these competitors in several situations.     

论宋元之际江西遗民词的内容特质

文学作品是作家本性、人格精神的复现。江西遗民词作为江西遗民词人群个性、心灵之诗意表现 ,其中所表露出的欲挽狂澜于既倒、重整乾坤的雄心与壮志、对自身归属感的积极寻求和对自己所处时空的理性反思、及对社会人生的执著与关注等内容 ,正是这个词人群体在江西独特的地域文化环境中生成的豪逸之气、忠义之心、耿直之性等群体特征的文学表达 ,具有鲜明的地域共性与特色。     

Complex belief-desire reasoning in children

Previous research concerned with children's belief-desire psychology has examined the capacity to predict or interpret action on the basis of the implicit proposition that ‘when an actor desires a particular end and believes that a particular action will achieve that end, he or she will undertake that action’. The limitations of this formulation for understanding acts of omission are outlined and an elaborated version of belief-desire psychology introduced. This version holds that ‘when an actor desires a particular end and believes that a particular action will achieve that end, and when it is believed that there are no co-occurring outcomes of that action whose avoidance is desired more highly than is the originally conceived end, then the actor will undertake the action which will satisfy the original desire’. An experiment is reported which examines 4-, 5, and 7-year-olds' ability to predict story characters' actions on the basis of either their true or false beliefs concerning undesirable outcomes associated with the pursuit of a desired end. Children of all age-groups provided evidence of understanding the elaborated version of belief-desire psychology. However, a significant improvement was noted between the ages of 4 and 7 years in the ability to understand circumstances involving false beliefs.     

人力资源开发与高校办学定位

教育是人力资源开发的主导形式,高校办学定位直接影响着人才培养的类型和规格。适应科学技术的发展和社会经济增长方式的转变,高校办学定位必须与时俱进,不断调整和革新。在当前和今后相当长一段时间,高师院校必须走“以师为本、综合发展”之路。     

Progress and cumulation in the human sciences after the fall

What do we mean by progress and cumulation in the social and human sciences? Recent thinking in the philosophy and history of science has led to an abandonment of some versions of logical positivism and of verificationism that had a strong deductive and theory testing orientation. What is to replace them is less clear. This paper argues that progress and cumulation can be seen as a process of evaluation and retention within an epistemic community. Scholarly disciplines differ in their social structure and in their epistemic and normative commitments. Since sociology is a fragmented discipline, progress and cumulation differ within its multiple subdisciplines, which to varying extents represent epistemic communities. Brief sketches of progress (advance) and cumulation in several subdisciplines are offered.     

Bayesian analysis of outlier problems using divergence measures

A Bayesian approach is presented for detecting influential observations using general divergence measures on the posterior distributions. A sampling-based approach using a Gibbs or Metropolis-within-Gibbs method is used to compute the posterior divergence measures. Four specific measures are proposed, which convey the effects of a single observation or covariate on the posterior. The technique is applied to a generalized linear model with binary response data, an overdispersed model and a nonlinear model. An asymptotic approximation using Laplace method to obtain the posterior divergence is also briefly discussed.     

First Nations and community economic development: a case study

A training project in a northern Canadian community providedan opportunity to examine participatory planning approachesand the meaning of work in First Nations communities. Focusgroups conducted three years after the unsuccessful interventionof a community economic development (CED) project suggest thatcomplex factors such as lack of support from community leadersand rate of pay for workers determine whether CED is alwaysappropriate in northern, First Nations contexts.     

The Division of Household Labor in Germany and Israel

We compare the patterns of household division of labor in Germany and Israel—two countries that share key elements of the corporatist welfare regime but differ in their gender regimes—and evaluate several hypotheses using data from the 2002 International Social Survey Program. Although time constraints and relative resources affect the division of household labor and women’s housework in both societies, we find that in Germany the gender order of household labor is more rigid, whereas in Israel the spouses’ linked labor market status exerts distinctive effects. We also find significant relationships between gender ideology and the division of household labor. We discuss the theoretical advantages of approaching the comparative study of gender inequality from the vantage point of family and gender regimes.     

唐代狩猎诗论

唐代狩猎诗数量虽不多,但作者涉及面广,无疑是辉煌灿烂的唐诗中一道独特亮丽的风景线。唐代狩猎诗创作的繁荣,与唐代朝野普遍尚猎的风尚及文人入幕、从军边塞活动密切相关。唐人狩猎诗内容丰富,形式多样,特点鲜明,于中还透露出崇猎尚武、积极进取的时代精神。