抚河河道的变迁

本文从抚河河道变迁的事实出发，得出其变迁的特点，分析其变迁的原因。提出应加固抚河右堤、疏通东汉河与开挖下游东分流河行洪的建议。     

Food security, consumption diversification and foreign exchange balances in Indonesia: Results from a multi-commodity simulation

Many countries adopt economic development strategies, within which an important element is the maintenance of low and stable food prices. In Indonesia, this is achieved principally through government subsidies to consumers of imported rice, the total cost of which fluctuates considerably from year to year, depending on world price movements and domestic production performance. Higher and possibly less stable domestic food prices appear inevitable in Indonesia, however, as the spectre of reduced oil revenues increases the government's concern with the cost of its food policy. Results from a stochastic simulation model of the agricultural sector show that the food price risk to which consumers and producers would be exposed in the absence of the stabilizing component of Indonesia's food policy would be considerable, rendering this component an unlikely area for significant change. A viable policy option appears to be the continuance of rice and wheat price stabilization, but with a graduated increase in the relative price of rice, reaching a total of 10% by 1985. Such a policy could result in net self-sufficiency in foreign exchange from staple food trade by 1990 and an improvement in aggregate economic surplus, although the expected decade improvement in food-energy consumption per capita would fall from 10% to 8%.     

《一间自己的房间》中的声音

该文选取了英国女作家弗吉尼亚•伍尔夫的长篇论文《一间自己的房间》,试图借美国马里兰州大学比较文学和女性研究中心教授苏珊•S•兰瑟的思路,将社会身份的声音和叙述形式的声音联系并结合起来,从叙事声音的角度切入,分析其背后所反映的现实中女性主义的声音,并借此梳理伍尔夫的女性主义思想。     

Inferences concerning interpersonal choices given anonymously

It may be difficult or impossible to make a reliable empirical investigation of an unknown network of interpersonal choices or contacts if these are in some respect sensitive for the individuals involved. We consider how choice data given anonymously can be used to reveal various features of the network. Using tools from statistical decision theory and information theory we can determine risks and capacities of disclosing choice data, the graph structure of choice data and its numbers of loops and mutuals. We give some general results, illustrate the combinatorial complexity of the problem and comment upon the computational difficulties.     

Optimal estimation of a finite population mean under generalized random permutation models

Employing certain generalized random permutation models and a general class of linear estimators of a finite population mean, it is shown that many of the conventional estimators are “optimal” in the sense of minimum average mean square error. Simple proofs are provided by using a well-known theorem on UMV estimation. The results also cover certain simple response error situations.     

Procedures for improving the mle for ordered binomial parameters

The problem is that of estimating the probabilities of m independent binomial random variables when their probabilities are known to be nondecreasing and the loss function is squared error. In the cases where the m.l.e. is inadmissible (essentially when the total number of trials is 7 or more) we present a method for modifying the m.l.e. to get a better estimator. The method requires a series of changes. At each step we alter the action taken by the m.l.e. on each of three, appropriately chosen, points in the sample space.     

《红楼梦》“大荒山”并非长白山——与陈景河先生商榷

《红楼梦》中的“大荒山”并非陈景河先生所误引的《山海经·大荒西经》中“大荒山”,也与长白山无关,乃“荒唐言”耳。不能认为《红楼梦》主旨是写满族的兴衰史,表现的是中原腐朽文化和关外满族原始素朴文化的冲突等等。红学研究必须讲究科学的“方法论”。     

“A是A，B是B”句联的内部构造和外部构成

"A是A,B是B"句联内部各小句一般都是有序排列且有较高的一致性.各小句的前段可以是名词性的,也可以是谓词性的;后段大都重复前段,极少的时候略有变化;中段有条件地容纳状语.各小句的重音分布是"中-轻-重",这与单用的"A是A"小句明显不同."A是A,B是B"句联在结构上是弱自由句联,在表意上不自足.常在小句中作成分,或在复句中与紧邻的其他小句或句联形成各种关系,少数时候也可以单独构成复句.     

大山深处的美丽——评田开林中篇小说《人头山下一座坟》

田开林的中篇小说<人头山下一座坟>以一个发生在鄂西南这片红色的土地上的革命故事,揭示了土家儿女对红军的一片真情.伴随着这个美丽的故事,小说还为读者展现了鄂西南土家山乡独特的风景、风物及土家儿女那纯朴美丽的人性.小说借美丽的革命故事、独特的山川风物、浓郁的地方风情特别是土家人的原始素朴的自在人生和不拘礼俗的自然人性,将隐藏在那大山深处的美丽呈现在读者面前,给读者以丰富的审美体验,并为当代小说特别是鄂西乡土小说融入中国当代小说创作的大舞台昭示了一片新的天地.     

论李焘对《王安石日录》的取舍

以往学界多认为李焘在《续资治通鉴长编》中采录《王安石日录》入正文,是不因人废言的良史作派,但这只是注意了李焘用《日录》订正史实的一面,而在具体到事关新法是非以及针贬变法方面的深刻用意却很少注意。实际上李焘是用王安石自己的记录来否定变法。