Pseudo–Modelling of Outliers for Estimation of Regression And Time Series Models

This paper documents situations where the variance inflation model for outliers has undesirable properties. The model is commonly used to accommodate outliers in a Bayesian analysis of regression and time series models. The alternative approach provided here does not suffer from these undesirable properties but gives inferences similar to those of the variance inflation model when this is appropriate. It can be used with regression, time series, and regression with correlated errors in a unified way, and adheres to the scientific principle that inference should be based on the data after obvious outliers have been discarded. Only one parameter is required for outliers; it is interpretable as the a priori willingness to remove observations from the analysis.     

Defining the linear portion of a sigmoid‐shaped curve: bend points

Formulae are provided that define the ‘bend points’, the beginning and end of the essentially linear dose–response region, for the four‐parameter logistic model. The formulae are expressed in both response and dose units. The derivation of the formulae is shown in order to illustrate the general nature of the methodology. Examples are given that describe how the formulae may be used while planning and conducting bioassays. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

证交所国债买断式回购交易的风险研究

国债买断式回购的推出衍生了抛补套利、循环融券卖空、债券组合交易、买断式回购组合交易这几种新的主要交易模式,丰富了投资者的交易手段,然而,这些新的交易模式将容易引发做空风险、流动性风险和更大的信用风险,在分析这些风险的基础上,提出了建立健全保证金制度、信用评估制度以及制定严格的交易规则等风险防范对策。     

略论毛泽东的语言风格

语言风格体现一定的审美观,毛泽东的语言风格体现了他独有的审美取向和审美价值。这里通过对毛泽东生活实践和写作实践中所形成的伟人风采的展示和文风、语言风格的研究,将毛泽东的语言风格概括为通俗平易,形象生动;理中寓情,情理交融;想象丰富,气势磅礴;古为今用,推陈出新,为人们树立了语言艺术运用的光辉典范。     

A Numerical Solution to the Nonhomogeneous Two-Stage MVK Model of Cancer

In this article, we describe a straightforward method for solving the probability of at least one malignant cell by time t, and the associated hazard function, in the general (i.e., nonhomogeneous) two-stage Moolgavkar-Venzon-Knudson (MVK) model of cancer. The method consists of solving four coupled ordinary differential equations derived from the Kolmogorov backward equations for this process. The relationship of this method to previously proposed solutions is discussed.     

意义推导模式

意义推导模式即代码(或信码)模式、推理模式和明示—推理模式。代码模式几乎完全排斥了语境的作用、交际主体及其在表达思想时对语言运用的灵活性和多面性;推理模式是随着人们对意义认识的加深和语用学的诞生而提出来的,其重心是对暗含的推导。关联理论汲取了推理模式(甚至代码模式)的优点,又加上了明示一词,提出了明示—推理模式,其意义的推导涵盖了明说和暗含。     

国家财政对农业投入的分析与预测——基于状态空间模型的实证分析

国家财政对农业的投入是影响农业发展的重要因素。收集了建国以来国家财政对农业投入的数据,分析构造出状态空间模型,应用卡尔曼滤波估计出状态向量,挖掘出隐藏在数据内部的变化特征,分析国家财政对农业投入的实际情况,并对未来几年的农业投入进行预测。     

企业信息系统项目效率的评价方法研究

在简要总结信息系统评价方法的基础上,提出了应用改进的DEA模型客观评价企业信息系统项目效率的方法,建立了信息系统项目的投入和产出指标体系,并实证分析了大型陶瓷企业信息系统项目的相对效率.     

On the preservation of copula structure under truncation

The author characterizes the copula associated with the bivariate survival model of Clayton (1978) as the only absolutely continuous copula that is preserved under bivariate truncation.     

论可持续发展战略下环境成本的计量方法

随着经济的不断发展,环境污染的日益加重,人们也越来越重视环境会计的研究。环境会计在处理数据、生成和传递环境信息的过程中,所涉及的关键问题便是环境会计的计量。而环境成本的计量又是环境会计研究中最重要的一环,在实践中可运用环境成本计量的基本方法及基本的计量模型。正确计量环境成本是环境成本核算的前提,对企业拥有的自然资源中可以计量的部分进行合理的估计,有利于满足社会各方面对环境问题提出的客观要求。