Variable repetitive group sampling plans with process loss consideration

Traditionally, most acceptance sampling plans considering the fraction defective do not distinguish among the products that fall within the specification limits. However, products that fall within the specification limits may not be good if their mean is far away from the target. So, developing an acceptance sampling plan with process loss consideration is essential. In this paper, a variable repetitive group sampling plan is proposed to deal with process loss. The design parameters of the proposed plan are tabulated for various combinations of acceptance quality levels. The proposed methodology can be used to determine whether the products meet the desired levels of protection for both producers and consumers.     

Keep it simple: on specific-to-general predictor selection for time series forecasting in the short,medium and long run

This paper describes the forecasting performance of general-to-specific and specific-to-general predictor selection within specifications fitting into the class of (approximate) linear autoregressions. Short, medium and long horizon forecasting exercises are distinguished. Regarding the latter, iterative prediction is compared with direct conditioning on available time series information. Ex ante forecasting results are provided for 495 real macro-economic and financial time series recently collected for 25 economies and the Euro area [A. Inouea and L. Kilian, On the selection of forecasting models, J. Econ. 130 (2006), pp. 273–306]. Almost 9000 single predictions enter the modelling comparison. Overall, specific-to-general predictor selection turns out to offer preferable prediction outcomes in terms of statistical and more economic loss functions. With regard to medium (long) term prediction, the analysis is supportive for direct (iterative) multistep prediction.     

The effects of measurement error and omitted variables when using transition matrices to measure intergenerational mobility

This paper examines the consequences of specification error when transition matrices are used to analyse patterns of intergenerational mobility. We show that classical measurement error in both the child’s and parent’s earnings can lead to biased results, with summary mobility measures biased by as much as 20% in some cases. Furthermore our results suggest that the extent of the bias is most severe in the tails of the distribution. Omitted conditioning variables appear to have a modest effect on transition matrices in our model.     

语文规范札记六则

收入本文的有关语文规范的六则札记,记录了笔者读书过程中形成的下列想法:1.不尽全面准确的语言观需要调整;2.有违时代特点的语言管理方式应予纠正;3.语言服务须将分众利益考虑在内;4.目前的普通话定义存在问题亟待修正;5.考察论析汉字字形变化总趋势不可简单化;6.字体类型与字体规范关系的研究需要加强与深化。     

A statistical framework for ecological and aggregate studies

Inference from studies that make use of data at the level of the area, rather than at the level of the individual, is more difficult for a variety of reasons. Some of these difficulties arise because frequently exposures (including confounders) vary within areas. In the most basic form of ecological study the outcome measure is regressed against a simple area level summary of exposure. In the aggregate data approach a survey of exposures and confounders is taken within each area. An alternative approach is to assume a parametric form for the within-area exposure distribution. We provide a framework within which ecological and aggregate data studies may be viewed, and we review some approaches to inference in such studies, clarifying the assumptions on which they are based. General strategies for analysis are provided including an estimator based on Monte Carlo integration that allows inference in the case of a general risk–exposure model. We also consider the implications of the introduction of random effects, and the existence of confounding and errors in variables.     

论犯罪的本质是法益侵害

关于犯罪的本质,义务违反说违反近代以来各国宪法所坚持的人民主权和保障基本人权的要求,是一种以维护专制统治为目的的国家主义或者权威主义刑法理论;文化规范违反说无法说明行政犯的违法实质,导致犯罪的成立范围过于狭窄;伦理规范违反说违背行为刑法的基本原理,以刑法手段强制人们实施合乎道德要求的行为,过分限制个人自由,使刑法陷入思想刑法或者心情刑法;法规范违反说在判断是否违法时考察行为人的心情,混淆违法判断与责任判断;导致对立法的盲目服从,难以起到法益侵害说所具有的批判作用。应当认为,刑法的目的与任务是保护法益,犯罪的本质是侵害或者威胁法益,而不是义务违反或者规范违反。法益概念的抽象化、精神化与法益保护的早期化,不能改变法益侵害的犯罪本质。     

试析小提琴音阶练习的重要性

音阶练习是对小提琴演奏者的调式与调性的培养与训练的重要途径,也是对各种演奏技巧训练的有力手段,但在实践中常未引起足够重视。因此,阐述音阶练习的基本技术要求、一般音阶技巧的练习法和乐曲中常见的音阶技巧变体,以申述说明音阶练习的重要性,希望引起初学者的重视。     

The relation between unemployment and interest rate:

In bierens (1987) a granger casual relation was found between unemployment and the interest rate for the netherlands. In the present paper we will investigate whether there exists a similar granger casual relation between unemployment and interest rate for a number of other countries. It appears that, with our ARMAX modeling approach, this relationship is not confined to the netherlands, but also holds for the USA, Canada, Japan, Germany, the UK and France. For these countries the interest rate is the main explanatory variable, together with industrial production (the latter with one exception), whereas for most countries the wage rate is of minor or no importance as a determinant of unemployment. A number of economic theories can explain these phenomena of which the revenue maximization theory of baumol (1959) augmented with a flexible labor effort rate seems quite realistic     

Residual-based specification of the random-effects distribution for cluster data

We propose a method for specifying the distribution of random effects included in a model for cluster data. The class of models we consider includes mixed models and frailty models whose random effects and explanatory variables are constant within clusters. The method is based on cluster residuals obtained by assuming that the random effects are equal between clusters. We exhibit an asymptotic relationship between the cluster residuals and variations of the random effects as the number of observations increases and the variance of the random effects decreases. The asymptotic relationship is used to specify the random-effects distribution. The method is applied to a frailty model and a model used to describe the spread of plant diseases.