Does inflation bias stabilize real growth? Evidence from Pakistan

The motive of a typical discretionary central banker to accommodate excess inflation (inflation bias) is either to stabilize real growth or to spur it beyond natural rate. To what extent inflation bias helps to materialize this intention warrants empirical investigation. A more direct empirical probe into this issue, however, requires observable inflation bias indicators, which we model through desirable and threshold inflation rates as well as their respective society’s preferences. While examining the effects of inflation bias for a typical case of the discretionary monetary policy strategy of Pakistan, we found that contrary to the desired boost/stabilization in real growth, the policy (via. inflation bias) produced counterproductive results. Inflation bias was not merely ineffective in inducing real growth but significantly destabilized it. Moreover, the results, which are robust to different inflation bias indicators and subsample analysis, indicate that the higher the inflation bias, the higher is the intensity (magnitude) of its destabilizing effect and vice versa. This suggests that a policy that would minimize/constrain inflation bias would be a better choice as it would not only help achieve low and stable inflation but also a sustainable real economic growth.     

SEPARATING MORAL HAZARD FROM ADVERSE SELECTION AND LEARNING IN AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE: LONGITUDINAL EVIDENCE FROM FRANCE

The identification of information problems in different markets is a challenging issue in the economic literature. In this paper, we study the identification of moral hazard from adverse selection and learning about risk within the context of a multi‐period dynamic model. We extend the model of Abbring, Chiappori, and Pinquet (2003, Journal of the European Economic Association, 1, 767–820) to include learning about risk and insurance coverage choice over time. We derive testable empirical implications for panel data. We then perform tests using longitudinal data from France during the period 1995–1997. We find evidence of moral hazard among a sub‐group of policyholders with less driving experience (less than 15 years). Policyholders with fewer than five years of experience have a combination of learning about risk and moral hazard, whereas no residual information problem is found for policyholders with more than 15 years of experience.     

DEBT,POLICY UNCERTAINTY,AND EXPECTATIONS STABILIZATION

This paper develops a model of policy regime uncertainty and its consequences for stabilizing expectations. Because of learning dynamics, uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy is shown to restrict, relative to a rational expectations analysis, the set of policies consistent with macroeconomic stability. Anchoring expectations by communicating about monetary and fiscal policy enlarges the set of policies consistent with stability. However, absent anchored fiscal expectations, the advantages from anchoring monetary expectations are smaller the larger is the average level of indebtedness. Finally, even when expectations are stabilized in the long run, the higher are average debt levels the more persistent will be the effects of disturbances out of rational expectations equilibrium.     

NORM ENFORCEMENT: ANGER,INDIGNATION, OR RECIPROCITY?

The enforcement of social norms often requires that unaffected third parties sanction offenders. Given the renewed interest of economists in norms, the literature on third‐party punishment is surprisingly thin. In this paper, we report the results of an experiment designed to replicate the anger‐based punishment of directly affected second parties and evaluate two distinct explanations for third‐party punishment: indignation and group reciprocity. We find evidence in favor of both, with the caveat that the incidence of indignation‐driven sanctions is perhaps smaller than earlier studies have hinted. Furthermore, our results suggest that second parties use sanctions to promote conformism while third parties intervene primarily to promote efficiency.     

Risk Aversion,Collective Bargaining,and Wages in Germany

We develop an open‐shop model of trade union membership in which workers differ in their risk attitudes, and derive conditions under which the bargained wage will fall and union membership will increase with a general rise in risk aversion. Using data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel we define broad bargaining units and show that wages decline as average risk aversion of union members in these units rises, controlling for individual effects of risk aversion. Given a negative relationship between wages and employment, this suggests that secular changes in risk attitudes, because of an aging workforce or greater female labour force participation, can help to explain variations in the employment performance of unionized economies.     

A Revised Version of McNemar's Test for Paired Binary Data

In the formula of the McNemar test, a test on 2 × 2 classification tables with pairs of data, only the two categories A and D, which represent changes, are included; the retained parts B and C, which represent concordant responses, are not considered. Generally, it would be more reasonable for the significance of the changes to depend not only on A and D, but also on B and C, or on the sample size, n. To develop the test, two formulae, based on A, D, and n, and on A, D, B, C, and n, respectively, are proposed.     

Testing hypotheses when there could be an initial effect

In many treatment-versus-control experiments, the observed random variables can be written as the product of a Bernoulli and a continuous random variable. The treatment can affect the distribution of the observations in two ways.

1. the probability that the observation is 0 could be altered.

2. the distribution of the nonzero observations could be changed.

We may also want to measure the combined effect of the treatment.

3. the expected value of control and treated units may differ.

A method is presented for testing for the presence of the combined effect when the general form of the distribution function of the continuous observations is known. For the case when this distribution function is from the family of gamma distributions, a previously proposed test criterion for the combined effect has poor power properties. In this paper, we discuss a test criterion that has improved power properties.     

Score tests in the two - way layout of counts

For the balanced two-way layout of a count response variable Y classified by fixed or random factors A and B, we address the problems of (i) testing for individual and interactive effects on Y of two fixed factors, and (ii) testing for the effect of a fixed factor in the presence of a random factor and conversely. In case (i), we assume independent Poisson responses with µ_ij= E(Y| A=i,B=j) = α_iβ_jγ_ij corresponding respectively to the multiplicative

interactive and non-interactive cases. For case (ii) with factor A random, we derive a multivariate gamma-Poisson model by mixing on the random variable associated with each level of A. In each case Neyman C(α) score tests are derived. We present simulation results,and apply the interaction test to a data set, to evaluate and compare the size and power of the score test for interaction between two fixed factors, the competing Poisson-based likelihood ratio test, and the F-tests based on the assumptions that √Y+1 or log(Y+1) are approximately normal. Our results provide strong evidence that the normal-theory based F-tests typically are very far from nominal size, and that the likelihood ratio test is somewhat more liberal than the score test.     

Statistical Gambler's Ruin Problem

Abstract

The gambler's ruin problem is one of the most important problems in the emergence of probability. The problem has been long considered “solved” from a probabilistic viewpoint. However, we do not find the solution satisfactory. In this paper, the problem is recast as a statistical problem. Bounds of the estimate are derived over wide classes of priors. Interestingly, the probabilistic estimates ω(1/2) are identified as the most conservative solutions while the plug-in estimates are found to be out of range of the bounds. It implies that, although conservative, the probabilistic estimates ω(1/2) are justified by our analysis while the plug-in estimates are too extreme for estimating the ruin probability of gambler.     

Multivariate Generalized Distributions of Order k

Abstract

The study of multivariate distributions of order k, two of which are the multivariate negative binomial of order k and the multinomial of the same order, was introduced in Philippou et al. (Philippou, A. N., Antzoulakos, D. L., Tripsiannis, G. A. (1988 Philippou, A. N., Antzoulakos, D. L. and Tripsiannis, G. A. 1988. Multivariate distributions of order k. Statistics and Probability Letters, 7(3): 207–216.  [Google Scholar]). Multivariate distributions of order k. Statistics and Probability Letters 7(3):207–216.), and Philippou et al. (Philippou, A. N., Antzoulakos, D. L., Tripsiannis, G. A. (1990 Philippou, A. N., Antzoulakos, D. L. and Tripsiannis, G. A. 1990. Multivariate distributions of order k, part II. Statistics and Probability Letters, 10(1): 29–35.  [Google Scholar]). Multivariate distributions of order k, part II. Statistics and Probability Letters 10(1):29–35.). Recently, an order k (or cluster) generalized negative binomial distribution and a multivariate negative binomial distribution were derived in Sen and Jain (Sen, K., Jain, R. (1996 Sen, K. and Jain, R. 1996. “Cluster generalized negative binomial distribution”. In Probability Models and Statistics Medhi Festschrift, A. J., on the Occasion of his 70th Birthday Edited by: Borthakur, A. C. 227–241. New Delhi: New Age International Publishers.  [Google Scholar]). Cluster generalized negative binomial distribution. In: Borthakur et al. A. C., Eds.; Probability Models and Statistics Medhi Festschrift, A. J., on the Occasion of his 70th Birthday. New Age International Publishers: New Delhi, 227–241.) and Sen and Jain (Sen, K., Jain, R. (1997 Sen, K. and Jain, R. 1997. A multivariate generalized Polya-Eggenberger probability model-first passage approach. Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods, 26: 871–884. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). A multivariate generalized Polya-Eggenberger probability model-first passage approach. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods 26:871–884.), respectively. In this paper, all four distributions are generalized to a multivariate generalized negative binomial distribution of order k by means of an appropriate sampling scheme and a first passage event. This new distribution includes as special cases several known and new multivariate distributions of order k, and gives rise in the limit to multivariate generalized logarithmic, Poisson and Borel-Tanner distributions of the same order. Applications are indicated.