Bayesian Prediction for Progressively Type-II Censored Data from the Rayleigh Model

ABSTRACT

The Rayleigh distribution is proposed to be the underlying model from which observables are to be predicted by using Bayesian approach. Progressively Type-II censored data from the Rayleigh distribution is considered and the two-sample prediction technique is used. Numerical computations and a simulation are given to illustrate the performance of the procedures.     

Simulated Distribution of the Kullback-Leibler Information Measure

This paper provides the percentiles obtained by simulation of an informational test statistic. It gives evidence that the widely used chi-square approximation to this test statistic is not suitable.     

Accuracy Analysis of the Percentile Method for Estimating Non Normal Manufacturing Quality

We consider asymmetric kernel estimates based on grouped data. We propose an iterated scheme for constructing such an estimator and apply an iterated smoothed bootstrap approach for bandwidth selection. We compare our approach with competing methods in estimating actuarial loss models using both simulations and data studies. The simulation results show that with this new method, the estimated density from grouped data matches the true density more closely than with competing approaches.     

An Adaptive Test for the Two-Sample Location Problem Based on U-Statistics

For the two-sample location problem with continuous data we consider a general class of tests, all members of it are based on U-statistics. The asymptotic efficacies are investigated in detail. We construct an adaptive test where all statistics involved are suitably chosen U-statistics. It is shown that the proposed adaptive test has good asymptotic and finite sample power properties.     

科技研发投入政策模拟分析：基于中国科技CGE模型

从经济系统论角度,基于最新投入产出表和我国科技研发投入情况,编制中国科技社会核算矩阵,构建中国科技研发可计算一般均衡（CNT-CGE）模型,并模拟分析调整政府支出结构和科研经费制度改革两项科技研发投入政策。结果显示：调整政府支出结构政策可以使得实际GDP 增长率随着政府消费降幅的增加而增加,GDP 平减指数则随着政府消费降幅的增加而减少,其绝对降幅略小于实际 GDP 增幅;科研经费制度改革政策可以有效地提高我国 GDP 增长率,显著地降低物价水平,提升社会整体福利水平。     

Cross‐training Decisions in Field Services with Three Job Types and Server–Job Mismatch*

To be cost‐effective, field service managers must balance the high cost of machine downtime with the high cost of cross‐training technicians in multiple skills. We study a field service system with three job types requiring three different skills. Each server has a primary skill, the cost of which is considered sunk, and up to two secondary skills, which is a managerial decision. We model two important characteristics that distinguish field services: server–job mismatch and the ratio of travel time to service time. We use a queueing framework and simulation to study three cross‐training decisions: the number of servers cross‐trained in secondary skills, the number of secondary skills each server should have, and the efficiency in each secondary skill. We find that complete cross‐training is cost‐effective in some field service situations. Typically, efficiency in secondary skills must be close to 100%, but when the probability of mismatch is high and the ratio of travel time to service time is high, efficiency in secondary skills must be less than 100%.     

Restaurant Revenue Management at Chevys: Determining the Best Table Mix

Revenue management has been used in a variety of industries and generally takes the form of managing demand by manipulating length of customer usage and price. Supply mix is rarely considered, although it can have considerable impact on revenue. In this research, we focused on developing an optimal supply mix, specifically on determining the supply mix that would maximize revenue. We used data from a Chevys restaurant, part of a large chain of Mexican restaurants, in conjunction with a simulation model to evaluate and enumerate all possible supply (table) mixes. Compared to the restaurant's existing table mix, the optimal mix is capable of handling a 30% increase in customer volume without increasing waiting times beyond their original levels. While our study was in a restaurant context, the results of this research are applicable to other service businesses.     

从原初性的外在符合到模拟性的主体反思——现代性文本学与后现代性文本学的差异

对于现代性文本学而言,文本虽然获得了一定的独立性和开放性,但仍然处于一种既定的现成状态。文本背后始终假定原初意义的确定存在,思想的生产机制仍旧局限在非生产性的封闭结构中,以再现对某种原初性目的论的符合。在后现代性文本学的视域中,文本的既成性与意义的原初性,经由复合性和生产性的发生逻辑,被动态化为一种能指意指的生产过程。思想构境论充分结合了主体的生产性反思与特定历史情境的多元编织。它在去中心的、开放的思想生产过程中,颠覆和超越了真理原像的恒久秩序,并把思想的生成当作主体当下所建构的对文本＂原初语境＂的拟现,从而指向一种后文本学的主体反思。