On k-distorted generalized discrete family of distributions

We propose a new generalized discrete family of distributions which permits inflation/deflation at any single point in the support of distribution. Using the same, a zero-distorted generalized discrete family of distributions is introduced and some of its properties are studied. As an illustration, we study in detail, zero-distorted generalized Poisson distribution. Real-life applications of this distribution using well-known data sets are reported, which include an actuarial application of the proposed model.     

An Application of the AXIS Solution Framework to Multiple Objective Aggregate Production Planning

This paper provides data on the first application of a prototype of the AXIS solution framework. AXIS (algorithms combined with knowledge systems in an interactive sequence) is a framework for interactively combining structured algorithms that seek a best solution with knowledge-based expert systems that seek expert heuristic solutions. This paper tests the framework using an interactive multiple objective integer programming algorithm combined with heuristics taken from the domain of aggregate production planning. The results indicate the AXIS framework can be successful in generating high quality solutions, in vastly reduced solution times compared to the structured algorithms, at much lower costs compared to the expert heuristics working alone.     

局部战争对我国宏观金融冲击的理论研究

当代国际政治局势越来越复杂,局部战争冲突爆发越来越频繁,这种强烈的外部冲击会对一个国家的宏观经济产生重大冲击。通过运用现代经济学分析方法,从产出、汇率波动、通货膨胀率变化等方面研究局部战争对宏观金融的影响;经研究发现,局部战争对宏观金融造成的影响虽然发生在不同的领域,但是这些领域本身存在着联系,当它们同时受到外部冲击的时候,冲击对其造成的实际影响将因冲击的叠加作用而变大,而且政府的调控手段的作用也会受到更大的限制。通过对局部战争对一国宏观金融的整体影响较为全面系统的理论分析,在此基础上,对政府应如何采取合适的政策手段应对局部战争对于宏观金融冲击提出了政策建议。     

An integrated supplier-buyer model for improving supply chain coordination

This study develops a decision support model that can be used by a supplier in making production and price decisions at contract renewal times in a supply chain environment. The supplier first makes aggregate production decisions with a special attempt to estimate buyer commitments, and then determines the price of the item so as to satisfy his own profit and buyer cost reduction expectations simultaneously. Mathematical programming models are designed to achieve these in accordance with the contract terms. The main emphasis is placed upon the conceptual and negotiation aspects of the models, and some solution procedures are cited from previous studies. Then the approach is implemented in the biggest electric motor manufacturer in Turkey which has a large number of buyers in household appliances sector, and it is shown to be a useful tool for developing fair partnership.     

Multi-site aggregate production planning with multiple objectives: A goal programming approach

This paper addresses the problem of aggregate production planning (APP) for a multinational lingerie company in Hong Kong. The multi-site production planning problem considers the production loading plans among manufacturing factories subject to certain restrictions, such as production import/export quotas imposed by regulatory requirements of different nations, the use of manufacturing factories/locations with regard to customers' preferences, as well as production capacity, workforce level, storage space and resource conditions of the factories. In this paper, a multi-objective model is developed to solve the production planning problems, in which the profit is maximized but production penalties resulting from going over/under quotas and the change in workforce level are minimized. To enhance the practical implications of the proposed model, different managerial production loading plans are evaluated according to changes in future policy and situation. Numerical results demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the developed model.     

The value of the aggregate data approach in meta-analysis with time-to-event outcomes

Collecting individual patient data has been described as the 'gold standard' for undertaking meta-analysis. If studies involve time-to-event outcomes, conducting a meta-analysis based on aggregate data can be problematical. Two meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials with time-to-event outcomes are used to illustrate the practicality and value of several proposed methods to obtain summary statistic estimates. In the first example the results suggest that further effort should be made to find unpublished trials. In the second example the use of aggregate data for trials where no individual patient data have been supplied allows the totality of evidence to be assessed and indicates previously unrecognized heterogeneity.     

EM Estimation for Finite Mixture Models with Known Mixture Component Size

We consider the use of an EM algorithm for fitting finite mixture models when mixture component size is known. This situation can occur in a number of settings, where individual membership is unknown but aggregate membership is known. When the mixture component size, i.e., the aggregate mixture component membership, is known, it is common practice to treat only the mixing probability as known. This approach does not, however, entirely account for the fact that the number of observations within each mixture component is known, which may result in artificially incorrect estimates of parameters. By fully capitalizing on the available information, the proposed EM algorithm shows robustness to the choice of starting values and exhibits numerically stable convergence properties.     

Production and inventory control at ABB Motors and Volvo Wheel Loaders,two examples of MRP in practical use

The paper presents the main routines of production and inventory control at ABB Motors, Västerås and Volvo Wheel Loaders, Eskilstuna. The primary interest is to present how Material Requirements Planning (MRP) is used in these two companies. If the number of end items is large, the company assembles-to-order or makes-to-order then additions to pure MRP seem to be necessary. ABB Motors and Volvo Wheel Loader use: planning bills, a normal bill of materials with 'adding bills of materials', a master production schedule planning system with an available-to-promise function and a home-made 'system' for modules available-to-promise. One important measure for the both companies is the accumulative lead-time. An increase of the Master Production Schedule in a shorter time than the accumulative lead-time is avoided, because it will lead to suggestions of purchase in past time periods and therefore most probably to future material shortages.     

A robust optimization model for stochastic aggregate production planning

The aggregate production planning (APP) problem considers the medium-term production loading plans subject to certain restrictions such as production capacity and workforce level. It is not uncommon for management to often encounter uncertainty and noisy data, in which the variables or parameters are stochastic. In this paper, a robust optimization model is developed to solve the aggregate production planning problems in an environment of uncertainty in which the production cost, labour cost, inventory cost, and hiring and layoff cost are minimized. By adjusting penalty parameters, decision-makers can determine an optimal medium-term production strategy including production loading plan and workforce level while considering different economic growth scenarios. Numerical results demonstrate the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed model is realistic for dealing with uncertain economic conditions. The analysis of the tradeoff between solution robustness and model robustness is also presented.     

Cost and Shortage Trade-Offs in Aggregate Production Planning*

It is exceedingly difficult, if not impossible, to measure shortage costs. To bypass this difficulty in aggregate production planning, this paper develops an optimal policy function (piecewise linear or a curve) for trade-offs between shortages and the sum of production and inventory costs. The optimal management decision is based on this function. It should be of major interest in production planning since similar functions for inventory management have been successfully applied in practice.