论明清曲论的规范曲学

明清之际“规范曲学”命题，主要针对文人传奇的发展而展开，侧重于传奇文体体性的规范，并以此规范来指导当时传奇的创作，促进文人传奇发展的繁荣。同时，“规范曲学”自身亦存在相对性的特征。     

Supply chain optimisation and protocol environment (SCOPE) for rapid prototyping and analysis of complex supply chains

There is a strong need for modelling tools that allow decision makers to rapidly develop aggregate models of supply chains, including both material and information flow, that they can use to gain insights and assess alternative configurations. We present a prototype implementation of such a system and apply it to a simple supply chain for validation purposes, and to a real world case study from the consumer packaged goods industry.     

Aggregate production planning with workforce transferring plan for multiple product types

This paper presents the aggregate production planning for multiple product types where the worker resource can be transferred among the production lines. A mathematical model was formulated in spreadsheet format. Then the spreadsheet-solver technique was used as a tool to solve the model. A real situation of a manufacturing company was selected as a case study. The actual data was used to test and validate the proposed model. The optimal aggregate production plan provides the information on managing the available production capacity together with the useful workforce transferring plan. The obtained solutions were compared to those of another approach where the workers cannot be transferred among the production lines. The total cost is significantly reduced when the workers are allowed to transfer among the production lines.     

Ridge Regression for Estimation of Transition Probabilities from Aggregate Data

When data from several independent Markov chains are aggregated over each time point, least square estimation of transition probabilities faces the problem of multi-collinearity. We propose here an estimation procedure which involves use of ridge regression for the ordinary least square estimators. Performance of this estimator is then compared with that of the ordinary least squares.     

Precise large deviations for aggregate claims

Abstract

In this article, we consider a non standard renewal risk model, in which the claim sizes form a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables; the inter-arrival times are negatively associated; and each pair of the claim size and its inter-arrival time follows negative association or arbitrary dependence structure. We establish some precise large-deviation formulas for the aggregate amount of claims in the heavy-tailed case.     

Least-squares estimation of transition probabilities from aggregate data

Consider a population of n individuals that move independently among a finite set {1, 2,……, k} of states in a sequence of trials. t = 0. 1, 2,…, m. each according to a Markov chain with transition probability matrix P . This paper deals with the problem of estimating P on the basis of aggregate data which record only the numbers of individuals that occupy each of the k states at times t = 0. 1,2,……,m. Estimation is accomplished using conditional least squares, and asymptotic results are verified for the case n → ∞. A weighted least-squares estimator is introduced and compared with previous estimators. Some comments are made on estimability questions that arise when only aggregate data are available.     

基于因子分析法的中国经济结构实证研究

本文以增长经济学和发展经济学的理论为依据,利用因子分析方法,通过建立包含多种结构指标的综合性经济结构指标体系,探讨改革开放以来中国经济结构的变化以及引起这些结构变化的决定性因素,从而对我国经济结构的发展状态进行综合评价,探索中国经济增长模式转型的结构路径,为政府制定宏观经济政策和推进经济体制改革提供理论依据与对策建议。     

Notes and Communications REPLANNING FREQUENCIES FOR MASTER PRODUCTION SCHEDULES

Updating production plans typically is achieved by rolling the planning horizon forward one period at a time, each time including the latest information in order to determine the best course of action to pursue in the present period. Theoretical planning-horizon studies have identified the conditions by which the production decisions in the current and some specified number of future periods remain optimal given some set of future demands. Motivated by these findings, this study addresses the replanning frequency in a hierarchical production planning problem where no planning-horizon theorems are available. In this problem the aggregate production plan and the master production schedule are linked by a rolling-horizon practice. Empirical experimentation indicates that under certain cost and demand conditions the master production schedule need not be updated every period. If a schedule does not need to be updated for several periods, the schedule for these periods can be frozen to provide stability for planning components at lower levels in the bill of material of the products. The results of this study thus provide some reference for the determination of the frozen portion of the master production schedule.