Price vs. revenue stabilization through a buffer stock: Which is more financially feasible for LDCs?

Optimal control theory is used to analyze the implications of the adoption of price and LDC export revenue stabilization objectives by an international buffer stock for cocoa. The results obtained for the period 1956–76 suggest that the stabilization of either price or revenue at systematic trend would reduce the instability of both variables from that during the sample period. Although the stabilization of revenues at systematic trend decreases their average level, the stabilization of price has the opposite effect. Because of this, it may be financially feasible for the LDCs to provide the necessary resources for a price-stabilizing buffer stock.     

结构调整与区域比较优势对我国粮食 主产区农业增长的影响

文章采用西方区域经济研究中应用广泛的位移-份额分析法,探讨了我国粮食主产区、主产省在1992～1995、1996～1999和2000～2002三个不同时期的农业结构变动和区位优势对农业增长的影响。结果表明:粮食主产区、主产省的总位移特征总是与其差异位移保持高度一致,而反映农业产业结构效应的均衡位移则在不同时期表现不同。发挥区域比较优势是推动粮食主产区农业经济增长的关键,但农业结构调整优化与区位优势的充分发挥配套将更好地促进我国粮食主产区的农业增长保持或超过全国农业平均增长水平,确保国家的粮食安全。     

对治理"三农"问题的宪政思考

"三农"问题的形成有其深刻的宪政原因:宪政理论的非本土化与实际国情的冲突导致"三农"在国家现代化战略中的缺位;失误的宪政变革导致中国农民与现代化绝缘;宪政值取向的扭曲导致中国社会由农民社会向市民社会过渡的进程大大延缓.解决"三农"问题的宪政之路在于把"三农"问题入宪,确立其在国家宪政战略中的应有地位,制定完整的涉农法律体系,全面保障农民的自治权、受教育权、司法救济权、自由发展经济权、农地权、产品自由流通权、经济服务权、财务金融权、独立的私有财产权、政治权、迁徙权、社会保障权、社会人格权等等,确立违宪审查制度,避免立法、执法、司法及行政行为对"三农"利益的损害,切实保障农民的经济利益和民主权利.     

西部麦客现象

甘肃麦客以其极端的吃苦和耐劳,支撑着曾号称天府之国的关中农区的富庶与繁盛。论文以大量可搜集到的零碎文字记载为依托,试图还原一不为正史聚焦的几乎被当代史完全有意无意失忆的特殊群体之存在断面。     

关于山西省建设新型农业社会化服务体系的调查与思考

农业社会化服务体系是建设新农村过程中出现的又一重要事物。本文分别从政府公益性服务、企业经营性服务、合作组织互助性服务三方面对山西省农业社会化服务体系的发展现状做出评析,并从服务主体、服务内容、服务环境三方面指出山西省建设新型农业社会化服务体系面临的现实困境,在此基础上,提出了山西省进一步完善新型农业社会化服务体系的路径选择。     

农民专业合作社参与新型职业农民培育研究

新型职业农民培育是当前政府的一项重要工作。将农民专业合作社纳入到新型职业农民培育体系当中,可以充分发挥其既联系农民又参与市场运作的优势,提高新兴职业农民培育的实效性。但农民专业合作社参与新型职业农民培育也存在着农户覆盖率低、成员文化水平低、运作不规范等方面的制约因素。最后提出通过政府、农业教学科研单位的支持,农民专业合作社自身规范化建设等方面的努力来推动农民专业合作社参与新兴职业农民培育工作。     

紧扣学生思想实际创造性地开展思想政治工作

以"三个代表"为指导,把握农科学院学生思想政治工作的新特点,把教书育人,管理育人和服务育人真正落到实处,用创新的思路和精神,有针对性的做好学生宣传教育工作,使他们正确认识大学生的学习与生活,明确学习目的、努力方向和奋斗目标,使学生学农、爱农、为农,用所学知识服务"三农"(农业、农村、农民).     

农业生产与自然资源的可持续利用

中国是一个人口众多而人均自然资源不足的农业大国。人口的不断膨胀、经济的快速发展以及城市化进程的加速对土地、水等农业赖以存在的自然资源带来了空前压力。产量的不断提高伴随着农业现代化的向前发展,作物种植逐渐单一化。化肥、农药、机械、灌溉等措施的不断增加使用,使得原来与生态紧密相连的农业生产系统遭到破坏。随着世界人口的不断增长和自然环境资源的不断枯竭恶化,农业可持续发展已成为当今世界各国在其农业和农村经济发展及至整个国民经济发展过程中的核心内容。     

Farmers’ Risk‐Based Decision Making Under Pervasive Uncertainty: Cognitive Thresholds and Hazy Hedging

Researchers in judgment and decision making have long debunked the idea that we are economically rational optimizers. However, problematic assumptions of rationality remain common in studies of agricultural economics and climate change adaptation, especially those that involve quantitative models. Recent movement toward more complex agent‐based modeling provides an opportunity to reconsider the empirical basis for farmer decision making. Here, we reconceptualize farmer decision making from the ground up, using an in situ mental models approach to analyze weather and climate risk management. We assess how large‐scale commercial grain farmers in South Africa (n = 90) coordinate decisions about weather, climate variability, and climate change with those around other environmental, agronomic, economic, political, and personal risks that they manage every day. Contrary to common simplifying assumptions, we show that these farmers tend to satisfice rather than optimize as they face intractable and multifaceted uncertainty; they make imperfect use of limited information; they are differently averse to different risks; they make decisions on multiple time horizons; they are cautious in responding to changing conditions; and their diverse risk perceptions contribute to important differences in individual behaviors. We find that they use two important nonoptimizing strategies, which we call cognitive thresholds and hazy hedging, to make practical decisions under pervasive uncertainty. These strategies, evident in farmers' simultaneous use of conservation agriculture and livestock to manage weather risks, are the messy in situ performance of naturalistic decision‐making techniques. These results may inform continued research on such behavioral tendencies in narrower lab‐ and modeling‐based studies.     

中国省际农业生产力成长差异及其结构性因素

近几年,由于政策推动等多方面因素作用,中国农业连续五年实现粮食大幅增产,结构性调整也正逐步推进。但多年来,要素投入而非技术进步是支撑中国农业增长的根本要素这一状况并未得以根本改变。通过测度省际间农业生产力成长水平可见,技术退步是造成近年来中国农业生产力趋于下降的根本原因。另一方面,定量考察影响农业生产力变动的结构性因素时发现,部分旨在提升农业生产力水平的政策,从实际效果来看并未能够达成政策的初衷,有必要做出适当修正。