Farmers’ Risk‐Based Decision Making Under Pervasive Uncertainty: Cognitive Thresholds and Hazy Hedging

Researchers in judgment and decision making have long debunked the idea that we are economically rational optimizers. However, problematic assumptions of rationality remain common in studies of agricultural economics and climate change adaptation, especially those that involve quantitative models. Recent movement toward more complex agent‐based modeling provides an opportunity to reconsider the empirical basis for farmer decision making. Here, we reconceptualize farmer decision making from the ground up, using an in situ mental models approach to analyze weather and climate risk management. We assess how large‐scale commercial grain farmers in South Africa (n = 90) coordinate decisions about weather, climate variability, and climate change with those around other environmental, agronomic, economic, political, and personal risks that they manage every day. Contrary to common simplifying assumptions, we show that these farmers tend to satisfice rather than optimize as they face intractable and multifaceted uncertainty; they make imperfect use of limited information; they are differently averse to different risks; they make decisions on multiple time horizons; they are cautious in responding to changing conditions; and their diverse risk perceptions contribute to important differences in individual behaviors. We find that they use two important nonoptimizing strategies, which we call cognitive thresholds and hazy hedging, to make practical decisions under pervasive uncertainty. These strategies, evident in farmers' simultaneous use of conservation agriculture and livestock to manage weather risks, are the messy in situ performance of naturalistic decision‐making techniques. These results may inform continued research on such behavioral tendencies in narrower lab‐ and modeling‐based studies.     

产学研视阈下应用型高校金融学专业人才培养模式探析

当前,我国经济金融一体化趋势加强,金融体制进一步变革,金融行业对于高素质人才的需求量不断增加。在产学研视阈下,应用型高校金融学专业人才培养应具有相应的优化方案,更好地体现出金融学专业人才培养模式的合理性与科学性,培养出适合社会需要的金融专业人才。     

Proactive international strategies of cluster SMEs

In this conceptual paper, proactive international strategies of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the cluster context are discussed. The majority of cluster SMEs assume passive roles as network participants in the process of internationalisation. However, a smaller fraction adopts proactive strategies to foreign expansion acting as leaders of networks. SMEs as network leaders are embedded in the source clusters and dependent on local networks that provide them with complementary resources. We assert that this mutual dependence between a firm's resources and the development of industrial agglomeration should be reflected in the strategic options that SMEs adopt when going international. This paper contributes by synthesising and evaluating a comprehensive range of SME-strategic options and by proposing the proactive competitive strategies of SMEs in the international arena that are both feasible and effective. The feasibility of adopting a specific strategy means the suitability for this group of companies, considering their characteristics. The evaluation of the effectiveness of each strategy was performed according to the objectives of avoiding lock-in and of protecting and developing the core competencies embedded in cluster networks. We address the research gap in evaluating the outcomes of SME international strategies and in synthesising a comprehensive range of cluster SMEs' strategic options.     

论我国区域旅游合作进程中的协调机制创新

随着区域经济合作的不断发展,近年来我国的区域旅游合作取得了一定的进展,但仍然存在着一些问题。为实现区域旅游合作可持续发展,需要建立以政府为主导、以旅游企业为主体、以行业协会为纽带的合作模式,并在此基础上推动合作中协调机制的创新。新的机制主要包括建立跨区域的权威协调机构、完善利益分享和补偿机制、建立区域性旅游集团、打造区域旅游产业集群、提供旅游公共信息等。     

中亚局势的变化与上海合作组织的困境探析

吉尔吉斯斯坦的“颜色革命”和俄美关系的升温从内部动摇了上海合作组织的稳定性。成员国之间的共同利益开始发生变化,“利己主义”的不断上升导致该组织陷入“共同利益困境”之中。美国开始主导中亚地缘政治格局,在能源、地缘战略的竞争中,美国逐步取得优势地位,上海合作组织作为一个整体的作用越来越被削弱。上海合作组织所倡导的新的安全观、新的合作机制在具体运作的过程中受到了很大的挑战,完善理论指导、寻求新的“共同利益”和调整合作方针是上海合作组织走出困境的必然选择。     

中国省际农业生产力成长差异及其结构性因素

近几年,由于政策推动等多方面因素作用,中国农业连续五年实现粮食大幅增产,结构性调整也正逐步推进。但多年来,要素投入而非技术进步是支撑中国农业增长的根本要素这一状况并未得以根本改变。通过测度省际间农业生产力成长水平可见,技术退步是造成近年来中国农业生产力趋于下降的根本原因。另一方面,定量考察影响农业生产力变动的结构性因素时发现,部分旨在提升农业生产力水平的政策,从实际效果来看并未能够达成政策的初衷,有必要做出适当修正。     

The Trial and Crucifixion of Jesus: A Modest Proposal

I model an attempt by radical parties to topple a modus vivendi between a ruling government and a moderate opposition group. Cooperation between the regime and the moderate opposition is possible if each player prefers mutual cooperation to mutual confrontation. If each player also prefers mutual confrontation to cooperating while the other defects then radical parties have a chance at breaking up this accord. Radical parties can succeed in bringing the government and opposition to mutual confrontation if they can agree on power-sharing arrangements after regime change. This paper also resolves central questions surrounding the trial and crucifixion of Jesus Christ. I use an institutional approach to infer player preferences from historical and biblical sources and then use game theory to model the interactions between participants in these events. In so doing, I clarify aspects of the Gospel narrative that have puzzled readers for the past 2000 years.     

Deregulation,bank efficiency and economic cooperation across China–Taiwan Strait

This study investigates whether deregulation has affected bank efficiency in the ‘cross-strait’ relationship between China and Taiwan. I measure bank efficiency across three periods – after Taiwan and China joined the World Trade Organization, the global financial crisis, and the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) – and show that Taiwanese banks were significantly more efficient than their Chinese counterparts. These results show that the ECFA platform has not improved bank efficiency and thus has failed to function effectively. This finding suggests that China and Taiwan should continue negotiating within the ECFA context to enhance cross-strait financial cooperation.     

海合会国家与美国的安全合作

美国插手海湾事务,客观上使海湾各种力量重新趋于平衡。美国主导海湾防务,必然会按照美国意志行事,以使海合会国家的安全利益服从于美国全球战略利益,这与海合会国家寻求美国庇护的初衷产生了矛盾。随着时间的推移,这种矛盾越发凸显,海合会国家的不安全感也越发强烈。虽然这些问题目前不会阻碍双方安全合作的进程,但会影响双方全面合作的深度。     

海合会国家主权财富基金的发展及其影响

海合会国家热衷于建立各类主权财富基金,他们在基金的管理、运作透明度、投资战略和模式等方面均具有鲜明的特色。在美国次贷危机后,这些基金在跨国投资方面表现更为积极,直接导致了投资接受国加强投资审查等限制性措施。投资接受国政策的演变以及2009年的迪拜债务危机对海湾国家主权财富基金未来发展均产生了深远的影响。