On Energy Policy Models

Many energy models cannot be relied upon in forecasting or policy analysis. The quality of the data is often poor, and the theoretical underpinnings tend to be inadequate. These points are illustrated by example.     

A bayesian analysis of trend determination in economic time series

In this paper we provide a comprehensive Bayesian posterior analysis of trend determination in general autoregressive models. Multiple lag autoregressive models with fitted drifts and time trends as well as models that allow for certain types of structural change in the deterministic components are considered. We utilize a modified information matrix-based prior that accommodates stochastic nonstationarity, takes into account the interactions between long-run and short-run dynamics and controls the degree of stochastic nonstationarity permitted. We derive analytic posterior densities for all of the trend determining parameters via the Laplace approximation to multivariate integrals. We also address the sampling properties of our posteriors under alternative data generating processes by simulation methods. We apply our Bayesian techniques to the Nelson-Plosser macroeconomic data and various stock price and dividend data. Contrary to DeJong and Whiteman (1989a,b,c), we do not find that the data overwhelmingly favor the existence of deterministic trends over stochastic trends. In addition, we find evidence supporting Perron's (1989) view that some of the Nelson and Plosser data are best construed as trend stationary with a change in the trend function occurring at 1929.     

Computational schema on ridge analysis

The purpose of this paper is to revisit the response surface technique ridge analysis within the context of the “trust region” problem in numerical analysis. It is found that these two approaches inherently solve the same problem. We introduce the computational difficulty, termed the “hard case”, which originates in the trust region methods, also exists in ridge analysis but has never been formally discussed in response surface methodology (RSM). The dual response global optimization algorithm (DRSALG) based on the trust region method is applied (with a certain modification) to solving the ridge analysis problem. Some numerical comparisons against a general-purpose nonlinear optimization algorithm are illustrated in terms of examples appearing in the literature     

Graphical Display of Means

A graphical procedure for the display of treatment means that enables one to determine the statistical significance of the observed differences is presented. It is shown that the widely used least significant difference and honestly significant difference statistics can be used to construct plots in which any two means whose uncertainty intervals do not overlap are significantly different at the assigned probability level. It is argued that these plots, because of their straightforward decision rules, are more effective than those that show the observed means with standard errors or confidence limits. Several examples of the proposed displays are included to illustrate the procedure.     

Book reviews

Donald J. Koosis: Statistics. A Self-Teaching Guide, Fourth Edition. Wiley 1997, ISBN 0-471-14688-9

Christopher C. Heyde: Quasi-Likelihood and Its Applications, Springer Series in Statistics, 1997, pp. 235, [ISBN 0-387-98225-61

Jeffrey S. Simonoff: Smoothing Methods in Statistics, Springer Series in Statistics, 1996, pp. 338

Andr´e I. Khuri, Thomas Mathew and Birmal K. Sinha: Statistical Tests for Mixed Linear Models, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, 1998, pp. 352, PSBN 0-471-1 5653-11

Ronald Christensen: Log-Linear Models and Logistic Regression, Springer Texts in Statistics, 1997, pp. 483, [ISBN 0-387-98247-71

E. L. Lehmann: Testing Statistical Hypotheses, Springer Texts in Statistics, 1997, pp. 600, [ISBN 0-387-94919-41

S. R. Searle, G. Casella and Ch. E. McCulloch: Variance Components, Wiley and Sons, 1992, pp. 496, [ISBN 0-471-62162-51

B. J. T. Morgan: Analysis of Quantal Response Data, Chapman & Hall, 1992, pp. 51 1

Carl D. Huberty: Applied Discriminant Analysis, Wiley and Sons, 1994, pp. 490

C. R. Rao and H. Toutenburg: Linear Models. Least Squares and Alternatives, Springer Series in Statistics, 1995, 188 pp., [ISBN 0-387-94562-81     

Introduction: making the case for qualitative interviews

ABSTRACT

We introduce four papers comprising a Themed Section for this issue of the International Journal of Social Research Methodology, which together ‘Make the Case for Qualitative Interviews’. Here our aim is to show how this collection provides a timely contribution to key debates concerning the value of qualitative interviews, particularly as these are employed and analysed in much recent social scientific thinking. We explore ways to move beyond recent, sometimes constraining and occasionally dismissive, approaches to interviews in the social sciences through reframing and reconfiguring central questions germane to these debates. We also seek to challenge a broader neo-liberal trend towards valuing quantitative over depth qualitative research. Through this Introduction, and the collection of papers that follows, we seek to re-establish the value of qualitative interviews by shifting the focus from a preoccupation with what interviews can be said to do, towards questions centring on what can be done with interviews.     

Carbon Emissions Abatement (CEA) allocation and compensation schemes based on DEA

As environment constraints on economic growth are strengthening, Carbon Emissions Abatement (CEA) allocation becomes a significant issue that draws academia׳s attention. In the literature, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique has been applied to obtain CEA allocation with centralized models. Nevertheless, a centralized allocation plan suffers from an implementation difficulty in persuading decision-making units (DMUs) into an agreement. In this paper, we propose a new two-step method to mitigate this side effect. In the first step, we provide improved DEA-based centralized allocation models under the assumptions of constant returns-to-scale (CRS) and variable returns-to-scale (VRS) respectively and in the second step, two compensation schemes are developed for centralized allocation plans. An empirical application to the countries in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is presented to elaborate the main idea.     

零膨胀计数数据函数型部分变系数模型

在实际数据分析中经常会遇到零膨胀计数数据作为响应变量与函数型随机变量和随机向量作为预测变量相关联。本文考虑函数型部分变系数零膨胀模型 (FPVCZIM),模型中无穷维的斜率函数用函数型主成分基逼近,系数函数用B-样条进行拟合。通过EM 算法得到估计量,讨论其理论性质,在一些正则条件下获得了斜率函数和系数函数估计量的收敛速度。有限样本的Monte Carlo 模拟研究和真实数据分析被用来解释本文提出的方法。     

中国经济增长趋势研究

1978年以来,中国经济高速增长,国民经济综合实力迅速增加,中国一跃成为世界第二大经济体,但是次贷危机对世界及中国经济造成了巨大影响,经过强有力的刺激政策,中国经济出现了短暂的恢复性增长,之后呈现逐渐下降态势.2014年中国GDP增长速度为7.4%,与经济危机之前的中国经济的高速增长相比有较大差距.采用季节调整模型和Hodrick-Prescott滤波分析方法研究发现,中国的长期经济增长速度呈现下滑趋势,其根本因素是消费、投资、净出口的拉动力下降,直接因素是房地产行业下行.为了保持中国经济的长期平稳增长,应该适当鼓励人口增长,降低税收和鼓励科技创新.     

A Comparison of Arbitration Procedures for Risk‐Averse Disputants*

We propose an arbitration model framework that generalizes many previous quantitative models of final offer arbitration, conventional arbitration, and some proposed alternatives to them. Our model allows the two disputants to be risk averse and assumes that the issue(s) in dispute can be summarized by a single quantifiable value. We compare the performance of the different arbitration procedures by analyzing the gap between the disputants' equilibrium offers and the width of the contract zone that these offers imply. Our results suggest that final offer arbitration should give results superior to those of conventional arbitration.