Recent and classical goodness-of-fit tests for the Poisson distribution

We give a critical synopsis of classical and recent tests for Poissonity, our emphasis being on procedures which are consistent against general alternatives. Two classes of weighted Cramér–von Mises type test statistics, based on the empirical probability generating function process, are studied in more detail. Both of them generalize already known test statistics by introducing a weighting parameter, thus providing more flexibility with regard to power against specific alternatives. In both cases, we prove convergence in distribution of the statistics under the null hypothesis in the setting of a triangular array of rowwise independent and identically distributed random variables as well as consistency of the corresponding test against general alternatives. Therefore, a sound theoretical basis is provided for the parametric bootstrap procedure, which is applied to obtain critical values in a large-scale simulation study. Each of the tests considered in this study, when implemented via the parametric bootstrap method, maintains a nominal level of significance very closely, even for small sample sizes. The procedures are applied to four well-known data sets.     

Controlling the familywise error rate with plug-in estimator for the proportion of true null hypotheses

Summary.  Estimation of the number or proportion of true null hypotheses in multiple-testing problems has become an interesting area of research. The first important work in this field was performed by Schweder and Spjøtvoll. Among others, they proposed to use plug-in estimates for the proportion of true null hypotheses in multiple-test procedures to improve the power. We investigate the problem of controlling the familywise error rate FWER when such estimators are used as plug-in estimators in single-step or step-down multiple-test procedures. First we investigate the case of independent p -values under the null hypotheses and show that a suitable choice of plug-in estimates leads to control of FWER in single-step procedures. We also investigate the power and study the asymptotic behaviour of the number of false rejections. Although step-down procedures are more difficult to handle we briefly consider a possible solution to this problem. Anyhow, plug-in step-down procedures are not recommended here. For dependent p -values we derive a condition for asymptotic control of FWER and provide some simulations with respect to FWER and power for various models and hypotheses.     

对普通话水平测试的几点思考

国家语委近年来致力于对专业人员进行普通话水平测试。从测试情况看,有些值得探讨的问题。如:工作的重点放在哪里?测试的目的是什么?怎么看待轻声和儿化?“说话”就是“自说自话”吗?     

普通话水平测试中的轻声评判

轻声是普通话水平测试中测试员评判难点之一。测试员在评判时,要把握普通话轻声词的范畴;掌握轻声读音失误类型及评判原则;根据是否具有辨义作用,区分对待“朗读”、“说话”中轻声读音错误的扣分归属。     

Nonparametric Tests for Stratum Effects in the Cox Model

Thispaper considers the stratified proportional hazards model witha focus on the assessment of stratum effects. The assessmentof such effects is often of interest, for example, in clinicaltrials. In this case, two relevant tests are the test of stratuminteraction with covariates and the test of stratum interactionwith baseline hazard functions. For the test of stratum interactionwith covariates, one can use the partial likelihood method (Kalbfleischand Prentice, 1980; Lin, 1994). For the test of stratum interactionwith baseline hazard functions, however, there seems to be noformal test available. We consider this problem and propose aclass of nonparametric tests. The asymptotic distributions ofthe tests are derived using the martingale theory. The proposedtests can also be used for survival comparisons which need tobe adjusted for covariate effects. The method is illustratedwith data from a lung cancer clinical trial.     

Hypothesis Testing of Hazard Ratio Parameters in Marginal Models for Multivariate Failure Time Data

Marginal hazard models for multivariate failure time data have been studied extensively in recent literature. However, standard hypothesis test statistics based on the likelihood method are not exactly appropriate for this kind of model. In this paper, extensions of the three commonly used likelihood hypothesis test statistics are discussed. Generalized Wald, generalized score and generalized likelihood ratio tests for hazard ratio parameters in a marginal hazard model for multivariate failure time data are proposed and their asymptotic distributions examined. The finite sample properties of these statistics are studied through simulations. The proposed method is applied to data from Busselton Population Health Surveys.     

Assessing Effects on Long-term Survival after Early Termination of Randomized Trials

In this paper we present an approach to using historical control data to augment information from a randomized controlled clinical trial, when it is not possible to continue the control regimen to obtain the most reliable and valid assessment of long term treatment effects. Using an adjustment procedure to the historical control data, we investigate a method of estimating the long term survival function for the clinical trial control group and for evaluating the long term treatment effect. The suggested method is simple to interpret, and particularly motivated in clinical trial settings when ethical considerations preclude the long term follow-up of placebo controls. A simulation study reveals that the bias in parameter estimates that arises in the setting of group sequential monitoring will be attenuated when long term historical control information is used in the proposed manner. Data from the first and second National Wilms' Tumor studies are used to illustrate the method.     

Rank Tests for Matched Survival Data

In a clinical trial with the time to an event as the outcome of interest, we may randomize a number of matched subjects, such as litters, to different treatments. The number of treatments equals the number of subjects per litter, two in the case of twins. In this case, the survival times of matched subjects could be dependent. Although the standard rank tests, such as the logrank and Wilcoxon tests, for independent samples may be used to test the equality of marginal survival distributions, their standard error should be modified to accommodate the possible dependence of survival times between matched subjects. In this paper we propose a method of calculating the standard error of the rank tests for paired two-sample survival data. The method is naturally extended to that for K-sample tests under dependence.     

The information matrix test in the linear regression with ARMA errors

Summary The paper shows that the informaton matrix test presented by White (1982) decomposes into the sum of quadratic forms in the case of a linear model with ARMA errors. By extending previous results, which analysed the information matrix test in the presence of serial correlation, the test allows detection of additional sources of misspecification.     

结核菌素试验在入学新生结核病例搜寻中的应用

青年阶段是结核病发病的高峰年令组。本文通过对苏州铁道师院1982～1991年十届新生2983人所作的结核茵素试验结果的分析论证证明:及早发现及控制传染源,切断传染途经,保护易感人群是学校防痨的根本。对入学新生进行结素试验,阴性者接种卡介苗,强阳性者进行肺部过筛检查,并予以异烟肼化疗预防,应列为大学生结核病防治常规。