从地缘政治视角看美国的海上崛起及其对当代中国的启示

本文从地缘政治视角分析美国崛起的原因,比照当代中国与19世纪末美国在地缘政治环境上的异同,提出当代中国和平发展应研究借鉴美国的经验,按照统一国家——增强国力——发展海权的步骤,把握中国自身地缘政治环境特点,顺应当代世界发展潮流,统筹好国内国际两个大局,为实现中华民族的伟大复兴奠定坚实基础、创造良好环境。     

近代中日史学者对《禹贡》“九州”名称由来的辨析——以白鸟库吉与顾颉刚为中心

作为“东洋学派”与“古史辨派”的创始人,白鸟库吉与顾颉刚都展开对《禹贡》“九州”名称由来的考证,二者在主要证据、结论、视角、考辨方式、论证层次上有明显差异。关于《禹贡》“九州”名称的产生时间,白鸟库吉认为产生于春秋时代,孔子之前,顾颉刚认为“九州说”产生于春秋中叶,而《禹贡》“九州”中九个州的具体名称产生于战国时代。白鸟库吉将《禹贡》“九州”中关于地理位置、民族疆域、人文、贡赋等记述认定为源于中国传统思想的传说,并不具有地理记述价值,顾颉刚则将其视作一个不断演化、渐趋具体化的地理学概念;白鸟库吉的考证只关注中国传统思想文化因素,完全忽视地理性因素,而顾颉刚不仅考虑到五行思想的因素,而且更多地关注地理沿革;白鸟库吉把《禹贡》“九州说”当作“尧舜禹抹杀论”的一个重要证据,而顾颉刚对《禹贡》“九州”的考证相对独立,没有较强的结论指向性。     

略论英美宪法对公民人身权利的保护及对我国的启示

英美宪法比较重视对公民人身权利的保障,如对公民人身权利规定得比较全面详细,对逮捕、拘禁、拘留、搜查等措施规定了具体而严格的条件,并特别要求说明采取这些措施的理由;对公民人身权利的限制或剥夺必须遵循正当法律程序;确立了人身保护令状制度;重申了刑法或刑事诉讼法的一些基本原则等。这些"他山之石",对解决我国公民人身权利的保障问题具有一定的启示作用。     

论全球化时代的阿拉伯妇女问题

本文以2002～2005年的《阿拉伯国家人类发展报告》为基础,分析了阿拉伯国家长期落后的主要原因.作者认为,男女平等是构建民主社会的基本条件,处于全球化时代的阿拉伯国家之所以社会发展严重滞后,主要是因为阿拉伯妇女问题没有得到妥善解决.此外,作者还就如何解决阿拉伯妇女问题提出了建议.     

21世纪初中国对美、日、俄战略初探

世纪转折时期,亚太地区大国关系出现了一些新的特点。中国从自身的战略利益出发,确立了21世纪初对美、日、俄伙伴关系战略。这种关系,将有助于中国国家主权和安全、经济发展、国家统一、国际地位等方面战略利益的实现,因而是一种最佳的战略选择。     

The public life of white affects

The growing political power of racialized groups in white‐supremacist societies has unsettled the hegemonic position of whiteness. In the United States, this political shift has led to the linguistic repositioning of whiteness within public discourse as visible and vulnerable rather than unmarked and dominant; such repositioning operates as part of a larger strategy for maintaining white supremacy. Within white publics, which are simultaneously constituted through white public space, white public discourse, and white affects, those who are white‐identified linguistically engage in affective performances that reassert racial dominance by invoking claims of wounded whiteness. The article compares the affective strategies of white public discourse found, on the one hand, in ethnographic interviews with white youth in liberal educational spaces in California and, on the other hand, in the mediatized discourse of the US racist far right. The analysis identifies five affective discourse strategies deployed in the white public discourse of both groups: colormute racism; disavowals of racism; appropriations of diversity discourses; performances of white fragility; and claims of reverse racism. This shared set of discursive strategies is part of the larger convergence and mutual dependence of militant racism and mainstream racism in protecting all white people’s possessive investment in white supremacy.     

部分状态可见的隐马尔可夫模型状态序列的估计方法

本文考虑了部分状态可见的隐马尔可夫模型的状态序列估计问题,在分析了现有算法无法合理估计状态路径之后,以状态转移概率、观测概率和可见状态作为先验信息,通过贝叶斯分析计算可见状态前后向状态的后验概率,并给出初始条件和递推公式,运用动态规划递推得到每个观测值对应的最可能状态以及最可能的状态路径。最后,本文给出一个系统故障识别的应用例子,验证了所设计算法的可行性。     

How publics’ active and passive communicative behaviors affect their tornado responses: An integration of STOPS and SMCC

During imminent threat crises, such as natural disasters, publics have minutes to decide how to respond after receiving a warning. This study advances understanding of publics’ crisis communicative and noncommunicative behaviors in the context of tornadoes through combining and extending two theories: the social-mediated crisis communication (SMCC) model and the situational theory of problem solving (STOPS). Findings from a survey of Southeast U.S. residents (n = 1,585) indicate that STOPS is internally consistent and accurate at measuring its intended outcomes of communicative action in problem solving. However, the STOPS measures do not have a significant relationship with the desirable outcome for imminent threat crisis communication: individuals following government’s protective action guidance about tornadoes. In comparison, the expanded SMCC model predicts individuals’ self-reported compliance. Finally, variables from the SMCC model and tornado-specific variables were integrated into the STOPS model to explain individuals’ communicative engagement. Implications for theory and public relations practice are discussed.     

Population aging and long-term care policies in the Gulf region: a case study of Oman

Population aging is a phenomenon occurring across the globe including in countries traditionally exhibiting population dividends and “youth bulges.” The Gulf Corporation Council countries are no exception as they currently experience a process of population aging, albeit at a different stage from many developed countries. However, due to historically high fertility rates and fast-paced epidemiological transition, some of these countries will experience population aging at a higher pace than what has been observed in Europe and the United States. This article reviews recent developments in long-term care policies in the Gulf region with a focus on Oman as an example of a high-income Arab country that is experiencing population aging while still being governed by traditional family aged-care norms. Utilizing existing data and published research complemented by policy analysis and field visits, we analyze the process of population aging in Oman and neighboring countries and its policy implications.     

Socioeconomic status and the dynamics of preferences for income inequality in the United States, 1978–2016

Although considerable evidence indicates that public preferences for income inequality and redistribution vary across socioeconomic groups (i.e., occupation and income), much less is known about the temporal dynamics of these preferences. The purpose of this study is (a) to examine whether the attitudinal distance between managerial/professional workers and unskilled manual workers has changed (converged or diverged) over time and to (b) explore the reasons for and implications of the dynamics of preferences in the past several decades. Using data from the General Social Survey 1978–2016 (23 time‐points; N = 27,211), this study finds that the influence of occupational class has lost some of its significance in shaping public preferences for income inequality and that the declining effect of occupation can be explained in part by the attitudinal convergence between better‐ and less‐educated citizens. Findings suggest that proequality coalitions across educational boundaries play a remedial role in bridging the occupational divide over government redistribution in the United States.