Bivariate control charts for testing x data patterns

A new control chart, called the θ chart, for monitoring the mean of a process with bivariate quality characteristics is proposed. It can identify a rotation, shift or alternation between the subgroups of the process mean. The conventional application of X² chart to identify a sudden shift of the process mean is also expanded to identify a change of the process mean or a change of the process dispersion. Furthermore, when used together, the θ and X² charts could provide further insight into the process.     

The development of evaluation as a concession

The organization of evaluation activities takes place within the already existing programs and power arrangements of complex organizations. In this context, evaluation is likely to develop along the lines of a licensed concession operating within a particular program area and as an expression of a concession made by complex organizations to the ideal of rational decision-making. In addition, the formation of professional career paths in evaluation may lead to career immobility. The “evaluation as a profession” issue itself could be resolved not by evaluation becoming a profession but by evaluation becoming a specialty of the professional manager.     

Protectionism: Old wine in new bottles

This paper addresses some new types of arguments that have recently arisen in defense of protectionism in developing and developing countries. The new sources of protectionism in developing countries discussed are: (1) recession-debt-crisis costs; (2) protection in the world economy; (3) wages and labor markets; (4) political requirements. The new arguments for protectionism in developed countries discussed are: (1) shift to the service economy; (2) defense; (3) threat of protection to induce foreign investment.     

Asymptotic expansions for the distributions of statistics based on a correlation matrix

An asymptotic expansion is given for the distribution of the α-th largest latent root of a correlation matrix, when the observations are from a multivariate normal distribution. An asymptotic expansion for the distribution of a test statistic based on a correlation matrix, which is useful in dimensionality reduction in principal component analysis, is also given. These expansions hold when the corresponding latent root of the population correlation matrix is simple. The approach here is based on a perturbation method.     

On some formulas for weighted sum of invariant polynomials of two matrix arguments

Some properties of the generalized binomial coefficients and new coefficients related to symmetric functions are discussed. Several formulas of the weighted sum of invariant polynomials of two matrix arguments which are useful in multivariate distribution theory are presented.     

Pensions as a portfolio problem: fixed contribution rates vs. fixed replacement rates reconsidered

Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension schemes can contribute to better intergenerational risk-sharing and diversification. However, different variants of PAYG schemes entail different properties in these respects. In a stochastic 2-OLG model we compare PAYG schemes with fixed contribution rates and such with fixed replacement rates. The literature has shown that the former are preferable to the later from an ex ante perspective. We derive the opposite result for the ex post perspective. Here, schemes with fixed replacement rates are unambiguously preferable: they enhance intergenerational risk-sharing, lead to a higher savings and higher utility levels. We further show that, from an ex ante (veil-of-ignorance), perspective both schemes are non-comparable if the effect that fixed-replacement schemes serve as an insurance device for old-age income is properly accounted for. Received: 7 December 2000/Accepted: 17 May 2001     

A set of independent sequential residuals for the multivariate regression model

In this paper a set of residuals for the multivariate linear regression model is introduced. These residuals are shown to be independent with known distributions which do not depend on the parameters of the model. Transformations of the mentioned residuals may be used to construct exact α goodness-of-fit tests for the multivariate regression model.     

Fiscal stringency and fiscal sustainability: Panel evidence from the American state and local governments

Most state (and local) governments in the U.S. operate under formal fiscal rules which limit their ability to run budget deficits and resort to debt financing. A priori, one would expect to find evidence in favor of an intertemporally balanced budget, or fiscal sustainability, for these states, especially those characterized by a relatively high degree of fiscal stringency. We test this hypothesis for a panel of 47 state–local government units (1961–2006) using four budget balance definitions and several subsamples defined based on regional classifications, or presence of certain balanced budget requirements (BBRs). Our results, obtained from panel estimation techniques that allow for general forms of serial and cross-sectional dependence, suggest that a sufficient condition for “strong” sustainability is consistently satisfied for the full sample and all subsamples in relation to balances that include special funds and/or federal grants. However, we find evidence consistent with the “weak” version of sustainability for the full sample and some regional subsamples (particularly Far West dominated by California) in at least one of the two balances that exclude these items. Finally, the BBRs seem to matter only in relation to the sustainability of the more narrowly defined balances. We discuss the implications of these findings for the role of fiscal rules and federal grant policies.     

Log-linear models for mutations in the HIV genome

We discuss a general application of categorical data analysis to mutations along the HIV genome. We consider a multidimensional table for several positions at the same time. Due to the complexity of the multidimensional table, we may collapse it by pooling some categories. However, the association between the remaining variables may not be the same as before collapsing. We discuss the collapsibility of tables and the change in the meaning of parameters after collapsing categories. We also address this problem with a log-linear model. We present a parameterization with the consensus output as the reference cell as is appropriate to explain genomic mutations in HIV. We also consider five null hypotheses and some classical methods to address them. We illustrate methods for six positions along the HIV genome, through consideration of all triples of positions.