Leading Indicators for the Service Sector

Since the service sector currently accounts for a large and growing share of U.S. economic activity, we have undertaken to develop indicators that throw light on its current status and future prospects. A composite coincident index of aggregate economic activity in the service sector is constructed, and a growth-cycle chronology is identified based on growth rates in this index and in its components. Then several macroeconomic leading indicators of service are identified, and from them a composite leading index is constructed. The growth rate in this index is found to give advance warnings of major swings in the growth of the service sector.     

志愿服务:和谐社会的集体意识——试析志愿服务意识及其成长模型

文章认为,志愿者精神是中国社会转型过程中产生的一种新的用来增强社会整合的集体意识。志愿服务意识的形成能对公众的行为起到有效的导向作用,但意识的深浅将导致行为走势的连锁反映,而有我利他的深层志愿服务意识更有利于志愿者行动的持久化。本文在对志愿服务意识的含义和类型进行分析的基础上,建构了志愿服务意识的成长模型。     

Paying the toll: a feminist post‐structural critique of the discourse bridging work and family

On the surface, the modern workplace and home life appear to stand in sharp contrast to one another. The workplace seems to epitomize the modern concern with bounded time and the necessity of effective ‘use time’ (e.g., efficiency, effort, organizational commitment, speed‐up). Home life, on the other hand, is characterized by idealized images of emotionality and relief from the pressures of work. Yet numerous reported experiences of working people seem to belie this supposed duality. For many, home life is experienced as an appendage of the workplace, with its demands on time‐effort balance. Nonetheless, we continue to act as if there are two separate spheres of life that can ultimately be balanced and reconciled. This has been reinforced over the years by a growing discourse of work‐family conflict. Deconstruction of the discourse suggests that far from unraveling the ‘problem’ its characterization as a ‘work‐family’ conflict serves to privilege the dominant themes of use‐time and speed.     

Challenges of Critical Reflection: ‘Nothing Ventured,Nothing Gained’

This paper arises from the experiences of the authors in providing critical reflection training to social workers and health professionals. It examines the cultural challenges involved in undertaking critical reflection, and how such challenges may contribute to learning. We examine the nature of some of these risks and what might be at stake, and how we as educators might manage these in the interests of better learning. First we discuss the concept of critical reflection and the particular approach we take. We then analyse the nature of some of the risks involved by examining the cultural challenges that are at stake. Lastly we posit some strategies to reduce risk and maximise learning.

We outline three major types of cultural assumptions which are challenged by critical reflection. These include assumptions regarding interpersonal communication and dialogue, professional helping and workplace cultures, and regarding knowledge, learning, research and the place of emotions. The implications of these challenges include: the appropriateness of critical reflection for all types of learners; the need for emotional preparation for the critical reflection process; the need to emphasise the professional learning purposes; the need to clarify the use of self‐disclosure; and the need to set up an appropriate alternative cultural environment for the purpose of critical reflection.     

Market potential, European Union and growth

The successive enlargements of the European Union have implied an important increase of the market where European firms can supply their products. In this paper we analyze the influence of this process on the economic growth of EU members by including the market potential as a scale indicator in a Solow-type model. The main results are: first, the integration in the EU, specially for new members, explain a substantial fraction of subsequent growth (between 15% and 40%); second, this effect diminishes over time; third, the GDP of new members appears to have a greater positive influence than its population; and fourth, peripheral countries and those less open to trade are in a worse position to appropriate such benefits.     

日本近世城市发展与社会关系的变化

日本近世城市发展和商品货币经济的兴盛,造成了日本社会关系的剧烈变化.町人因为从事商品货币经济而逐渐富有,社会地位也开始提高.武士阶层因为脱离生产经营、居住到城市里依靠年贡生活而逐渐贫穷,社会地位每况愈下.不少武士为了谋生,不得不违反幕府法律从事商品经济,从而与商人、豪农利益接近.农民阶级也出现分化,少数农民因从事商品生产而成为豪农和町人,大多数农民则愈加贫穷.维新前夕社会关系错综复杂的变化,对维新后的社会改革带来深刻影响.     

Estimation in High-Dimensional Analysis and Multivariate Linear Models

This article presents a new approach of estimating the parameters describing the mean structure in the Growth Curve model when the number of variables compared with the number of observations is large. An unbiased, consistent, and asymptotic normal estimator is derived as well as its.     

城乡居民基本养老保险待遇调整方案的优化与选择

科学可持续的调待政策是城乡居民适度养老保险待遇的可靠保障。通过设计五种不同路径的调待方案,在现行政策的基础上构建城乡居民养老保险精算模型,从目标替代率、基金平衡性、缴费积极性、受益最大化等多维度对以上方案作比较并详细阐述各方案的优劣,研究结果表明差异化的调待方案有利于实现多维度目标的最优化整合。基于实证分析得出的建议是在财政补助固定的情况下,应构建差异化的待遇调整机制;此外,为保证基金短期和长期平衡,地方政府应加大对个人账户的补贴。     

西部大开发新问题及形成因素分析

西部大开发以来,西部经济出现了加快发展的好势头;但是也遇到了不容忽视的问题,即东西部差距仍在继续拉大;西部地区持续发展的内生增长因素远未形成;盲目开发、盲目投资、盲目建设现象、重复出现,这些问题如不引起高度重视,将对未来改革发展稳定的大局产生严重影响。充分重视西部大开发出现的新问题,深入研究新问题产生的原因,对于正确发挥政府协调区域经济发展的主导作用,积极推进西部大开发及振兴东北地区等老工业基地具有十分重要的意义。     

世界工厂、自主创新与我国经济的持续增长

文章从经济发展的客观规律出发,分析了我国走“世界工厂”道路的良好机遇,阐明了向“世界工厂”发展是我国经济发展过程的必然逻辑和自然过渡,并论述了走“世界工厂”道路与走中国特色的自主创新道路及中国经济持续增长之间的相互关系。文章指出,我国要在“世界工厂”这一环境下,站在巨人的肩膀上进行自主创新,提升创新能力和创新水平,掌握自己的知识产权,从而促进我国经济的持续增长。