Assessing program impact using latent growth modeling: a primer for the evaluator

Latent growth modeling (LGM) has emerged as a flexible analytic technique for modeling change over time because it can describe developmental processes at both the inter- and intra-individual levels. The LGM method can also provide a means for testing the contribution of other variables in order to explain variability in growth trajectories. This paper didactically illustrates the use of LGM as an analytical tool in program evaluation. Specifically, a hypothetical evaluation of a high school drug prevention program was used to demonstrate: (a) how LGM can be used to assess the longitudinal impact of a prevention program by comparing treatment and control populations with respect to individual differences in initial status and in rate of change; and (b) how predictors of initial status (post-intervention) and growth selected on the basis of a particular program theory can be incorporated in the model to explain program impact. Some advantages and limitations of using LGM in program evaluation are highlighted.     

ICT投资、互联网普及和全要素生产率

本文使用DEA-Malmquist指数方法对2002-2012年我国分行业全要素生产率、技术效率与技术进步进行测算,并基于我国地区投入产出表构建了ICT资本投入强度。在此基础上,本文就ICT投资对生产率的影响进行了实证检验。研究发现,ICT投资对全要素生产率提升具有积极作用,并且主要通过ICT投资促进技术效率提升实现。面板门限回归模型的结果显示,只有达到一定互联网普及率时,ICT投资促进技术效率提升的作用才显现,并在高互联网普及率时进一步增强;但在高互联网普及率下,ICT 投资对技术进步存在抑制作用,在全要素生产率层面表现为ICT 投资的促进作用消失。因此,现实的ICT 投资应重视通过信息化管理提升行业资源的有效利用能力,以最大化技术效率对全要素生产率的贡献;应充分考虑不同行业和地区的互联网普及程度,以深度激发“连接经济”对于释放ICT效能的互补性作用;还应注意配套相应产业政策,以减轻互联网发展对技术进步的阻碍作用。     

关于构成侵犯著作权罪应否需要“以营利为目的”的理性思考——兼评《关于办理侵犯知识产权刑事案件适用法律若干问题的意见》中的相关规定

关于构成侵犯著作权罪应否需要"以营利为目的",学界形成了"取消论"和"保留论"两种意见。双方各有一定道理,但是不足之处也很明显。妥当的做法应当是从"批评"和"固守"走向"解释",通过对"以营利为目的"的扩大解释,可以有效规制市场秩序,实现法律效果与社会效果的统一。事实上,新近出台的《关于办理侵犯知识产权刑事案件适用法律若干问题的意见》也采取了这种立场。这体现着对作者利益与公共利益的平衡,对社会进步与人权保障的平衡,以及对著作权法保护与刑法保护的平衡。     

中国能源消费静态依赖与动态发展——基于30个省市数据综列协整分析

本文以我国30个省市为横截单元、以1995-2005年时序数据组成综列数据,建立我国省市能源消费的综列协整模型,通过综列单位根和综列协整检验,结果表明,我国各省市的能源消费与经济增长和能源效率之间存在长期均衡。基于这一结论,揭示各省市能源消费静态依赖与动态发展特征,并给出政策建议。     

Alterations in IGF-I affect elderly: role of physical activity

The growth hormone–insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) axis is an important physiological regulator muscle for development. Although there is evidence that aging muscle retains the ability to synthesize IGF-I, there is also evidence that aging may be associated with attenuation of the ability of exercise to induce an isoform of IGF-I that promotes satellite cell proliferation. However, it is clear that overexpression of IGF-I in the muscle can protect against age-related sarcopenia. Strength training appears to be the intervention of choice for the prevention and treatment of sarcopenia. IGF-I has been implicated in the loss of the muscle with age, and IGF-I expression levels change as a consequence of strength training in older adults. However, it seems that advancing age, rather than declining serum levels of IGF-I, appears to be a major determinant of life-time changes in body composition in women and men. We concluded that resistive exercise is a significant determinant of muscle mass and function. Elevated levels of IGF-I have been found in physically active compared to sedentary individuals. Recent work suggests that IGF-I as a mediator plays an important role in muscle hypertrophy and angiogenesis, both of which characterize the anabolic adaptation of muscles to exercise.     

长三角产业结构变动与经济增长比较分析

产业结构及其变动在很大程度上推动或制约着经济增长，在不同时期和不同地区，产业结构的演进对经济增长的绩效是不一样的。文章首先对长三角三大区域的产业结构变动从产出和就业两个层面进行了详细的分析和测算，然后从结构效应的角度，就结构变动对经济增长的贡献，作了一般分析和规范分析。分析结果表明：改革开放以来，长三角三大区域产业结构与经济增长之间具有十分明显的正相关性，且就三大区域之间的比较来看，产业结构高级化的提升速度与初期产业结构水平之间具有负相关性，即三大区域间产业结构存在收敛的趋势。     

第二大股东持股的治理效应——基于上市公司的实证分析

本文以763家上市公司2003年的横截面数据为样本,通过考察公司绩效与第二大股东持股之间的经验关系,考察了第二大股东持股的治理功能。通过结合上市公司数据建立一个多元模型,来说明第二大股东是如何监督第一大股东,影响公司价值的。研究发现,我国并不存在有效的股权制衡机制,第二大股东的存在没有显示出积极的治理激励功能,没有反映出第二大股东对第一大股东的监督激励作用。在我国目前的制度背景下,相对控股是一种最佳的平衡状态。     

Planners' Perspectives on Obstacles to Sustainable Urban Development: Implications for Transformative Planning Strategies

A major problem confronting planning is the gap between transformative proposals and enduring urban development trends. The paper interprets interviews with 62 planners involved in a sustainable urban development strategy in a large region focussed on Toronto, Canada. Surveyed planners were asked about the obstacles they encounter when attempting to modify prevailing urban development. Mentioned obstacles are consistent with expectations arising from three major perspectives on inertia: institutionalism, political economy and path dependence. Interviews also highlight the role of planners' practical knowledge in identifying and interpreting obstacles, and the existence of a consensus among respondents over sustainable urban development.     

贸易开放、制度变迁与经济增长--基于不同国家规模和发展水平的比较分析

关于经济增长源泉的探讨一直没有停止过。最近的研究已经不满足于对引起经济增长直接原因的讨论,而是分析在这些直接原因的背后,是什么因素决定了一国要素积累和创新的速度。其中国际贸易、制度质量和地理因素这三者被认为是引起经济增长更深层次的原因。对于不同经济发展水平和国家规模的各国而言,这三者在经济增长中的相对作用大小并不完全一致。     

网络环境下的著作权保护、限制及其利益平衡

随着网络信息技术的发展,著作权保护在网络空间得到了延伸。对网络空间著作权保护,存在着市场模式与接近模式的不同认识。网络空间在延伸著作权人的保护空间的同时也大大扩充了作品使用者利用作品的方式和途径,因而也需要对网络环境下著作权保护给予适当限制。