我国区际劳动力流动对经济增长的影响—就业结构变动效应的视角

改革开放以来,大量劳动力由中西部地区的农业部门流向东部沿海发达地区的非农部门,同步实现劳动力的乡城迁移和产业转移,这既是我国市场经济发展、二元经济结构转换的必然结果,也是支撑我国国民经济增长的一个重要机制。研究结果表明。80年代中期以来,随着我国区际劳动力流动日益活跃,劳动力就业结构效应对国民经济总量增长的贡献率呈加强趋势。消除限制区际劳动力流动的各种障碍,进一步增强我国区域问劳动力流动性,是促进国民经济持续快速发展的应时之举。     

提高生产率成长率的三种外部因素分析

通过对500家上市公司的实证分析发现,产品竞争、金融压力和股东控制这三种外部因素同企业生产率成长率存在一定程度的正相关关系。垄断租金与价值增加值之比同企业生产率成长率负相关;利息支付额与现金流量之比同生产率成长率正相关;存在占支配地位的大股东控制会导致更高的生产率成长率。同时,也有证据显示金融压力和股东控制这两个因素能够替代产品竞争。     

Planners' Perspectives on Obstacles to Sustainable Urban Development: Implications for Transformative Planning Strategies

A major problem confronting planning is the gap between transformative proposals and enduring urban development trends. The paper interprets interviews with 62 planners involved in a sustainable urban development strategy in a large region focussed on Toronto, Canada. Surveyed planners were asked about the obstacles they encounter when attempting to modify prevailing urban development. Mentioned obstacles are consistent with expectations arising from three major perspectives on inertia: institutionalism, political economy and path dependence. Interviews also highlight the role of planners' practical knowledge in identifying and interpreting obstacles, and the existence of a consensus among respondents over sustainable urban development.     

Alterations in IGF-I affect elderly: role of physical activity

The growth hormone–insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) axis is an important physiological regulator muscle for development. Although there is evidence that aging muscle retains the ability to synthesize IGF-I, there is also evidence that aging may be associated with attenuation of the ability of exercise to induce an isoform of IGF-I that promotes satellite cell proliferation. However, it is clear that overexpression of IGF-I in the muscle can protect against age-related sarcopenia. Strength training appears to be the intervention of choice for the prevention and treatment of sarcopenia. IGF-I has been implicated in the loss of the muscle with age, and IGF-I expression levels change as a consequence of strength training in older adults. However, it seems that advancing age, rather than declining serum levels of IGF-I, appears to be a major determinant of life-time changes in body composition in women and men. We concluded that resistive exercise is a significant determinant of muscle mass and function. Elevated levels of IGF-I have been found in physically active compared to sedentary individuals. Recent work suggests that IGF-I as a mediator plays an important role in muscle hypertrophy and angiogenesis, both of which characterize the anabolic adaptation of muscles to exercise.     

我国人口素质与经济增长关系实证分析

本文在对人口素质的概念进行讨论及其构成进行分析的基础上．阐述了国内关于人口素质与经济增长关系的研究现状,而且使用离散系数法测度我国的人口素质水平,并将其作为一个变量引入生产函数,对我国人口素质与经济增长间的关系进行了实证研究,从定量角度说明了人口素质对社会经济发展的意义。     

冷战后国际关系与美国外交政策

冷战结束以后国际政治发生的巨大变化是由苏联解体和国际权力结构的失衡所造成的。在失去了苏联的制衡之后,美国的行为越来越表现出肆意妄为和粗暴蛮横的特征。美国用先发制人战略取代威慑和遏制战略是错误的,布什政府的单边主义政策只能使美国在世界上越来越孤立。国际均势的恢复是一个漫长的过程,但是,国际体系的均势最终将会实现。     

A theoretical analysis of the power of biased coin designs

Outlining some recently obtained results of Hu and Rosenberger [2003. Optimality, variability, power: evaluating response-adaptive randomization procedures for treatment comparisons. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 98, 671–678] and Chen [2006. The power of Efron's biased coin design. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 136, 1824–1835] on the relationship between sequential randomized designs and the power of the usual statistical procedures for testing the equivalence of two competing treatments, the aim of this paper is to provide theoretical proofs of the numerical results of Chen [2006. The power of Efron's biased coin design. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 136, 1824–1835]. Furthermore, we prove that the Adjustable Biased Coin Design [Baldi Antognini A., Giovagnoli, A., 2004. A new “biased coin design” for the sequential allocation of two treatments. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. C 53, 651–664] is uniformly more powerful than the other “coin” designs proposed in the literature for any sample size.     

Assessing program impact using latent growth modeling: a primer for the evaluator

Latent growth modeling (LGM) has emerged as a flexible analytic technique for modeling change over time because it can describe developmental processes at both the inter- and intra-individual levels. The LGM method can also provide a means for testing the contribution of other variables in order to explain variability in growth trajectories. This paper didactically illustrates the use of LGM as an analytical tool in program evaluation. Specifically, a hypothetical evaluation of a high school drug prevention program was used to demonstrate: (a) how LGM can be used to assess the longitudinal impact of a prevention program by comparing treatment and control populations with respect to individual differences in initial status and in rate of change; and (b) how predictors of initial status (post-intervention) and growth selected on the basis of a particular program theory can be incorporated in the model to explain program impact. Some advantages and limitations of using LGM in program evaluation are highlighted.     

对冲与制衡:日本“印太战略”的地缘政治逻辑与制约因素

日本“印太战略”是依据日本在当前国际格局中的地位和地缘政治现实制定的,目的是对冲和制衡中国在印太地区影响的扩展,以维护当前有利于日本的国际秩序,进而实现维护日本的国家利益。日本“印太战略”在政治和安全领域主要依托“四国安全对话机制”,以构建地区同盟架构的方式,逐步实现日本的地缘战略。这既是当前东亚地缘政治的现实,也是日本作为海洋型国家的战略选择。但是,由于合作国家的战略偏好和地缘利益的差异以及中国周边外交的成功实施,特别是国际格局演变的趋势,从不同的层面制约日本“印太战略”的实施。日本“印太战略”是一项综合性战略,是对中国“一带一路”倡议的针对性措施,对中国地区利益的影响较为广泛,中国应从战略上予以重视。