人口内部均衡发展研究——以西部地区为例

本文从量与质两个方面对人口内部均衡发展概念进行界定——在人口发展过程中,人口内部影响因素在发展数量、质量等方面逐步实现均等或协调,而这种均衡是暂时的、相对的,且不断的由低级均衡向高级均衡发展演替。在此基础上从人口发展、人口内部均衡度、人口内部均衡发展梯度、人口内部均衡可持续发展度四个视角构建人口内部均衡发展评价模型,并对西部地区进行实证分析。主要结论:(1)2000~2007年间,西部人口发展、人口内部均衡度及人口内部均衡可持续发展度呈增长态势,其增速高于同期全国水平,且西部各省间发展差距较大;(2)西部地区人口发展水平较低,位于0.48~0.59之间,属由启蒙后期进入过渡前期阶段;(3)西部人口内部均衡度低,位于0.35~0.42之间,属由轻度失调进入濒临失调阶段;(4)西部人口内部均衡可持续发展度较低,位于0.455~0.544之间,属过渡阶段。     

How Large Are Your G-Values? Try Gosset’s Guinnessometrics When a Little “p” Is Not Enough

Abstract

A crisis of validity has emerged from three related crises of science, that is, the crises of statistical significance and complete randomization, of replication, and of reproducibility. Guinnessometrics takes commonplace assumptions and methods of statistical science and stands them on their head, from little p-values to unstructured Big Data. Guinnessometrics focuses instead on the substantive significance which emerges from a small series of independent and economical yet balanced and repeated experiments. Originally developed and market-tested by William S. Gosset aka “Student” in his job as Head Experimental Brewer at the Guinness Brewery in Dublin, Gosset’s economic and common sense approach to statistical inference and scientific method has been unwisely neglected. In many areas of science and life, the 10 principles of Guinnessometrics or G-values outlined here can help. Other things equal, the larger the G-values, the better the science and judgment. By now a colleague, neighbor, or YouTube junkie has probably shown you one of those wacky psychology experiments in a video involving a gorilla, and testing the limits of human cognition. In one video, a person wearing a gorilla suit suddenly appears on the scene among humans, who are themselves engaged in some ordinary, mundane activity such as passing a basketball. The funny thing is, prankster researchers have discovered, when observers are asked to think about the mundane activity (such as by counting the number of observed passes of a basketball), the unexpected gorilla is frequently unseen (for discussion see Kahneman 2011 Kahneman, D. (2011), Thinking Fast and Slow, New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. [Google Scholar]). The gorilla is invisible. People don’t see it.     

外语教师实践性知识的表达与管理——外语教育叙事库的构建

外语教师的实践性知识在其专业发展以及外语教育研究中起着至关重要的作用,但因其缄默性和非系统性而难以表达,而普通教育研究领域中的叙事方法恰好以现象学的视角展现了外语教师实践性知识存在的真实丰富的生活世界。但是,当前教育叙事研究的学术价值在我国尚未得到应有的重视,基于此,本文提出外语教育叙事库构建的设想,并初步确立了建库的框架与原则。在这个库中,外语教育叙事将被深度分析、诠释和应用,外语教育叙事研究也将走向规范化、合法化和实用化。最终,此叙事库将在外语教师个人化的实践性知识与普适性的外语教育理论这两极之间架起桥梁。     

Bayesian inference of three-parameter bathtub-shaped lifetime distribution

We investigate a Bayesian inference in the three-parameter bathtub-shaped lifetime distribution which is obtained by adding a power parameter to the two-parameter bathtub-shaped lifetime distribution suggested by Chen (2000). The Bayes estimators under the balanced squared error loss function are derived for three parameters. Then, we have used Lindley's and Tierney–Kadane approximations (see Lindley 1980; Tierney and Kadane 1986) for computing these Bayes estimators. In particular, we propose the explicit form of Lindley's approximation for the model with three parameters. We also give applications with a simulated data set and two real data sets to show the use of discussed computing methods. Finally, concluding remarks are mentioned.     

Balance with logic-measuring the performance and sustainable development efforts of an NPO in rural Ethiopia

The analysis of performance of Not-for-profit organisations (NPOs) is difficult because there are several objectives and perspectives to NPO performance and accountability, especially if considered sustainably and in long term. This suggests that performance analysis and measurement of NPOs might also involve multiple perspectives, such as in Balanced Scorecard (BSC) or in the Logical Framework (LF) models.This article is a case study of analysing the sustainable development and performance of an NPO in rural Ethiopia. We propose the Logic Balanced Scorecard (LBSC) model that combines elements of BSC and LF. This proposal was preliminarily used and tested in a five-year interventionist accounting case study among eight villages in rural Ethiopia. Advances in performance measurement may help improving the socioeconomic, agricultural and nutritional situation in the area. Further, an improved analysis of performance, sustainability and accountability of NPOs may make development projects easier to plan, follow and assess.     

现代企业利用平衡计分卡提高绩效管理的实践性研究

BSC是面向未来的一个复杂系统,一个成功的平衡计分卡项目能够切实反映组织的综合经营状况。经过前期的战略分析和项目启动工作,BSC可以高效的执行企业预定战略,通过财务、客户、内部运营过程以及学习与成长四个方面的指标之间相互驱动的因果关系展示组织的战略细节,实现了绩效考核及改进以及战略实行和修正目标,这些对于我国的企业乃至一些非营利单位都有很好的借鉴作用。     

自愿性信息披露均衡机制探析

拥有私人信息的公司管理层,根据其报酬与业绩之间的敏感性水平,产生了不同的自愿性信息披露动机,在一定的金融微观市场结构条件下,公司管理层的自愿性信息披露均衡处于从完全披露到部分披露再到不披露的动态过程。     

Constrained Bayes and empirical Bayes estimation under random effects normal ANOVA model with balanced loss function

The paper develops constrained Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators in the random effects ANOVA model under balanced loss functions. In the balanced normal–normal model, estimators of the Bayes risks of the constrained Bayes and constrained empirical Bayes estimators are provided which are correct asymptotically up to O(m^-1)$\mathrm{O}(m^{-1})$, that is the remainder term is o(m^-1)$\mathrm{o}(m^{-1})$, m$m$ denoting the number of strata.     

Estimation of the exponential mean time to failure under a weighted balanced loss function

This paper considers estimation of a exponential mean time to failure using a loss function that reflects both goodness of fit and precision of estimation. The admissibility and inadmissibility of a class of linear estimators of the form are studied.