Conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program HRA Procedure

This paper presents a limited assessment of the conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) human reliability analysis (HRA) procedure described in NUREG/CR-4772. The data for this study are derived from simulator examination reports from the NRC requalification examination cycle for nuclear power plant operators. The ASEP procedure was used to estimate human error probability (HEP) values for critical tasks, and the HEP results were compared with the failure rates observed in the examinations. The ASEP procedure was applied by PNNL operator license examiners who supplemented the limited information in the examination reports with expert judgment based upon their extensive simulator examination experience. Comparison of the average of the ASEP HEP values with the fraction of the population actually failed and demonstrated that the ASEP HEP values are larger (conservative) by a statistically significant average factor of two. Partitioning of tasks into subgroups based on the ASEP HEP values and comparison of the subgroup average ASEP HEP values with observed subgroup failure rates showed little or no conservatism for small ASEP HEP values, but considerable conservatism for larger ASEP HEP values.     

Iterated full partitions

Algebraic calculations that depend upon a full partition can be automated through the use of an operator P for the derivation of such a partition. Calculations that require the repeated use of P are automated by simply iterating the operator. The resulting output is general and contains sufficient structure to identify the result of a calculation for a variety of settings.     

国家自然科学基金资助项目综合评价:基于Vague 集多准则决策

采用基于Vague 集的多准则决策方法,对国家自然科学基金11 类主要竞争性资助项目的实施情况进行综合评价和排序． 首先,通过问卷调研的方式,由国家自然科学基金项目评审专家采用“高”、“不高”和“不清楚”三类语义,对各类项目按照“评审公正性”、“管理规范性”、“科研创新性”和“社会影响力”四个准则进行评价; 然后,根据问卷统计结果,将语义评价转化为Vague 估计值,并利用一种新的评分函数计算各类项目在各准则下的得分; 最后,采用正态分布的OWA 算子集结各准则下的得分,得到所有项目的综合评价和排序． 本文的研究结果将为完善国家自然科学基金的资助结构与管理模式提供重要参考依据．     

具反射边界条件的板模型迁移系统的临界性

研究非均匀介质,各向同性,具反射边界条件的板模型迁移系统的临界解.借助泛函分析方法,特别是Lp空间上的线性算子理论,证明了积分算子的主本征值(即临界参数)的性质,并获得了系统处于次临界状态的条件以及使系统处于临界状态的板厚度的存在性.     

Pseudo Self-Consistent Estimation of a Copula Model with Informative Censoring

Abstract.  We consider the case where a terminal event censors a non-terminal event, but not vice versa. When the events are dependent, estimation of the distribution of the non-terminal event is a competing risks problem, while estimation of the distribution of the terminal event is not. The dependence structure of the event times is formulated with the gamma frailty copula on the upper wedge, with the marginal distributions unspecified. With a consistent estimator of the association parameter, pseudo self-consistency equations are derived and adapted to the semiparametric model. Existence, uniform consistency and weak convergence of the new estimator for the marginal distribution of the non-terminal event is established using theories of empirical processes, U -statistics and Z -estimation. The potential practical utility of the methodology is illustrated with simulated and real data sets.     

Non parametric mixture priors based on an exponential random scheme

We propose a general procedure for constructing nonparametric priors for Bayesian inference. Under very general assumptions, the proposed prior selects absolutely continuous distribution functions, hence it can be useful with continuous data. We use the notion ofFeller-type approximation, with a random scheme based on the natural exponential family, in order to construct a large class of distribution functions. We show how one can assign a probability to such a class and discuss the main properties of the proposed prior, namedFeller prior. Feller priors are related to mixture models with unknown number of components or, more generally, to mixtures with unknown weight distribution. Two illustrations relative to the estimation of a density and of a mixing distribution are carried out with respect to well known data-set in order to evaluate the performance of our procedure. Computations are performed using a modified version of an MCMC algorithm which is briefly described.     

企业经营者业绩考核可持续发展指标体系研究

现行企业经营者业绩评价模式大都忽视环境问题,时间跨度较短,仅仅看年度利税或销售额等指标,这显然与可持续发展的要求不相适应。为此,建立一套评价企业经营者业绩考核的可持续发展指标体系很有必要。文章以此为基础提出了设置企业经营者业绩考核的可持续发展指标体系的原则,构建出企业经营者业绩考核的可持续发展指标体系。     

Conditional Functional Principal Components Analysis

Abstract.  This work proposes an extension of the functional principal components analysis (FPCA) or Karhunen–Loève expansion, which can take into account non-parametrically the effects of an additional covariate. Such models can also be interpreted as non-parametric mixed effect models for functional data. We propose estimators based on kernel smoothers and a data-driven selection procedure of the smoothing parameters based on a two-step cross-validation criterion. The conditional FPCA is illustrated with the analysis of a data set consisting of egg laying curves for female fruit flies. Convergence rates are given for estimators of the conditional mean function and the conditional covariance operator when the entire curves are collected. Almost sure convergence is also proven when one observes discretized noisy sample paths only. A simulation study allows us to check the good behaviour of the estimators.     

含导数项的p-Laplacian算子多点边值问题三个正解的存在性

利用Leggett-Williams不动点定理的一个扩展定理,研究了非线性项含导数项的pLapla-cian算子多点边值问题,得到了三个正解存在的充分条件.     

关于带权Hardy不等式

本文得到了Hardy算子Tf(x)=integral from o to x f(t)dt从空间L~p(R_+,vdx)到L~q(R_+,Udx)有界的权函数对(u,v)的特征,其中1≤q相似文献