社会经济发展与男孩偏好的淡化

本文利用2010年中国人民大学育龄妇女家庭与生育状况调查数据,对男孩偏好弱化现象及导致男孩偏好弱化的社会经济因素进行了研究。研究发现,农业技术和生产工具的进步、农村家庭收入来源中非农收入比例的提高、男孩较高的养育成本、社会保障的完善和人口流动性的增加所导致的人们对“养儿防老”预期的降低以及住房、交通条件的改善等一系列社会经济变化的共同作用,使人们的男孩偏好逐步淡化。     

Estimating the Size of a Subdomain: An Application in Auditing

This article suggests an alternative to the ratio estimator for estimating the total size of a subdomain of a population. The application that served as the genesis for this work is from auditing. The problem is to estimate the total of sales transactions that are not tax exempt from an audit sample of the population of nontaxed sales transactions. A superpopulation approach, which models the unit's probability of belonging to the subdomain as a function of its size, leads to a family of estimators. The simplest member of this famiiy is one in which that function is specified to be a constant. The optimal estimator for this model performs markedly better than the ratio estimator when the assumption is true and often performs better when it is not, though in that case it is biased. Stratification is shown to reduce this bias and at the same time make the ratio estimator more similar to the optimal estimator. A simulation experiment shows that the theoretical advantages hold in a real audit population.     

近代中国“生育节制”思潮的历史考察

面对中国近代人口过庶的社会问题,以汪士铎的“减民”思想、严复的“奢民说”“教育妨生说”为代表的晚清有识之士开始提出节制生育的主张。20世纪20年代,新式知识分子主要围绕生育节制的必要性、及其方式进行了探讨,形成了颇有影响的思潮。30年代,强调生育节制与社会发展之间的协调,将人口理论引入生育节制思想,并从理论宣传转向实践宣传。40年代,因国内政局动荡,其节育思潮式微,但仍在力求使节育医学专门化、政策化。     

A Generalized Class of Ratio Type Exponential Estimators of Population Mean Under Linear Transformation of Auxiliary Variable

Recently, Shabbir and Gupta [Shabbir, J. and Gupta, S. (2011). On estimating finite population mean in simple and stratified random sampling. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, 40(2), 199–212] defined a class of ratio type exponential estimators of population mean under a very specific linear transformation of auxiliary variable. In the present article, we propose a generalized class of ratio type exponential estimators of population mean in simple random sampling under a very general linear transformation of auxiliary variable. Shabbir and Gupta's [Shabbir, J. and Gupta, S. (2011). On estimating finite population mean in simple and stratified random sampling. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, 40(2), 199–212] class of estimators is a particular member of our proposed class of estimators. It has been found that the optimal estimator of our proposed generalized class of estimators is always more efficient than almost all the existing estimators defined under the same situations. Moreover, in comparison to a few existing estimators, our proposed estimator becomes more efficient under some simple conditions. Theoretical results obtained in the article have been verified by taking a numerical illustration. Finally, a simulation study has been carried out to see the relative performance of our proposed estimator with respect to some existing estimators which are less efficient under certain conditions as compared to the proposed estimator.     

Noninformative priors for the normal variance ratio

In this paper, we consider noninformative priors for the ratio of variances in two normal populations. We develop first and second order matching priors. We find that the second order matching prior matches alternative coverage probabilities up to the second order and is also a HPD matching prior. It turns out that among the reference priors, only one-at-a-time reference prior satisfies a second order matching criterion. Our simulation study indicates that the one-at-a-time reference prior performs better than other reference priors in terms of matching the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense. This work is supported by Korea Research Foundation Grant (KRF-2004-002-C00041).     

蒙古-突厥史诗英雄与骏马同时诞生母题的比较研究

蒙古-突厥史诗中的英雄及其骏马有着不同寻常的关系.蒙古-突厥史诗中英雄及其骏马同时诞生母题与英雄的骏马将自己的主人拖出地面的再生母题之间的结构关系.蒙古-突厥史诗中英雄被敌人抛入地下之后英雄的骏马用尾巴把主人从地下拖出地面的母题与英雄的骏马先于英雄的诞生而出生的特异诞生母题之间在结构上存在着一种置换关系.两者都是英雄的诞生仪式.     

Pooling multivariate data under W, LR and LM tests

Two independent random samples are drawn from two multivariate normal populations with mean vectors μ1 and μ2 and a common variance-covariance matrix Σ. Ahmed and Saleh (1990) considered preliminary test maximum likelihood estimator (PMLTE) for estimating μ1 based on the Hotelling's T _N ², when it is suspected that μ1=μ2. In this paper, the PTMLE based on the Wald (W), Likelihood Ratio (LR) and Lagrangian Multiplier (LM) tests are considered. Using the quadratic risk function, the conditions of superiority of the proposed estimator for departure parameter are derived. A max-min rule for the size of the preliminary test of significance is presented. It is demonstrated that the PTMLE based on W test produces the highest minimum guaranteed efficiencies compared to UMLE among the three test procedures.     

常州市育龄人群生育意愿及影响因素

基于调查研究数据,对常州市育龄人群的理想子女数、性别偏好和预期初育年龄进行了定量分析,并对不同特征人群的理想子女数进行对比研究。结果表明,常州市育龄人群不存在明显的生育性别偏好,少生晚生已成为其自觉自愿的选择。     

论《金瓶梅》中西门庆的心理特征

西门庆的心理呈现出复杂、矛盾的特征。在将封建的伦理道德、纲常律令踩在脚下的同时,他又不能完全摆脱传统观念的羁绊。具体表现在他对自己生活中最重要的五个方面——家庭、权势、宗教、性和金钱的态度和观念上。他的家庭观念主要表现为他对女性贞节和子嗣的双重心态;在权势心态上自信与自卑交织;他的宗教观是实用主义为中心,更重视金钱的作用和个人的力量;在性领域表现为畸形的占有心理和焦虑、软弱心理并存;在钱财意识上,他贪财但不吝财,对金钱有着不同于传统的新的认识。     

躯体写作--女性文学的又一次迷失

20世纪90年代受西方女性主义影响出现的躯体写作，虽然在某种程度上对男权中心机制具有消解作用，但因为女性自身的缺陷，过于沉迷于女性生存体验尤其是性体验，并表现出对男性世界的刻意规避，不可避免地再一次走向迷失。