Political confrontation over fiscal processes: The impact of the U.S. Congressional Budget Act

In July 1974 the U.S. Congressional Budget Act was signed into law. This legislation was the result of a heavily fought political confrontation between President Nixon and Congress over who controlled the Federal budget. In addition to the issue of control, the Act was prompted by dissatisfaction with the procedures used by Congress to determine Federal receipts and expenditures. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact this legislation had on the U.S. economy in its early years.The first section of the paper sets up a simple modeling framework. The model is specified so as to illustrate how a change in the budget process resulting from the Congressional Budget Act could potentially produce changes in the level of total output. This section also explains the derivation of a tax and expenditure series used in the model's empirical testing. The second section addresses some of the theoretical issues, and presents the results of simulations based on the Chase, Wharton, and Data Resources econometric models. Broad conclusions are gathered in the final section.     

紫花苜蓿的生产技术与畜牧养殖的利用价值

紫花苜蓿以其产草量高,草质优良,适口性好,营养价值高列牧草之首,堪称牧草之王。它耐寒抗旱,耐瘠薄,适应性强,是世界上栽培最早,种植最广的牧草,是各种牲畜最喜食的牧草。本文就紫花苜蓿的栽培技术和在畜牧养殖中的利用价值作了简述。     

信用证欺诈及其防范对策

作为国际贸易主要支付方式的信用证 ,被誉为“国际商业的生命液”。但是一些不法分子却利用信用证单证交易的特点 ,相互勾结串通 ,在信用证运转的各个环节上疯狂地实施欺诈活动 ,给权益人造成巨大的经济损失 ,影响企业的正常发展 ,损害银行信誉 ,破坏交易秩序 ,危及整个信用证制度。因此 ,信用证各方当事人应对信用证欺诈进行有效的预防 ,本文就预防信用证欺诈的原则性措施和技术性措施进行了论述。     

Refugees from Nazism and Cultural Transfer to Britain

This study accepts that while cultural transfer was obvious in the history of German Jewish settlement in Britain from Nazi Germany during the 1930s, it looks at what four individuals did and what helped them to lay the foundations of a successful career in Britain and make a noticeable contribution to their host society. The essay asks how bewildered refugees overcame social uprooting, isolation in a foreign country, linguistic deficiencies and lack of funds. It demonstrates the importance of relatives and fellow exiles, friends and colleagues, relief organisations and professional associations. The contribution uses the case studies of the journalist Sebastian Haffner, the Germanist Charlotte Jolles, the historian Francis L. Carsten and the industrialist Mac Goldsmith.     

评《宋代文学史》对郑思肖的论述

本文指出《宋代文学史》否定郑思肖《心史》的理由是站不住的 ;同时 ,既然否定了《心史》却又将郑思肖列为宋末著名诗人 ,则是说不通的。     

Constructing identity with L2: Pronunciation and attitudes among Norwegian learners of English1

This study investigates L2 pronunciation and evaluation of American and British varieties of English among Norwegian adolescent learners. By integrating quantitative sociolinguistics and L2 acquisition, the article investigates stylistic practice in an L2 context. Results from an auditory analysis of four phonological variables and a matched‐guise test are interpreted with reference to speaker commentary. Learners’ self‐expressed accent aims correlate significantly with accent use, but American English is the dominant pronunciation. Results show that both L1 and L2 speakers of English varieties are socially evaluated by the learners; British English is considered the most prestigious model of pronunciation, while American English is associated with informality. These evaluations seem to motivate learners’ pronunciation choices. The data indicate blended use of the English varieties. Learners seem to exploit linguistic resources from English, and reshape and adapt the social meaning of the variables to a local construction of identity.     

An adaptive sampling scheme guided by BART—with an application to predict processor performance

The evaluation of new processor designs is an important issue in electrical and computer engineering. Architects use simulations to evaluate designs and to understand trade‐offs and interactions among design parameters. However, due to the lengthy simulation time and limited resources, it is often practically impossible to simulate a full factorial design space. Effective sampling methods and predictive models are required. In this paper, the authors propose an automated performance predictive approach which employs an adaptive sampling scheme that interactively works with the predictive model to select samples for simulation. These samples are then used to build Bayesian additive regression trees, which in turn are used to predict the whole design space. Both real data analysis and simulation studies show that the method is effective in that, though sampling at very few design points, it generates highly accurate predictions on the unsampled points. Furthermore, the proposed model provides quantitative interpretation tools with which investigators can efficiently tune design parameters in order to improve processor performance. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 136–152; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada     

近三十年新疆高校少数民族汉语教学研究述评

文章对1979年以来发表在新疆主要刊物和区外核心刊物中的423篇高校少数民族汉语教学研究论文进行了统计分析。在30年的发展中其成绩主要表现在研究基础不断扩大、研究论题走向广泛与细化、研究方法有一定的改进。而存在的主要缺憾是研究内容不深入、研究方法单一,定量和定性研究重视不够等问题。目前新疆高校少数民族汉语教育虽然有较大发展,但在教学上过度依赖对外汉语教学,在研究层次上仍处于相对较低的水平。     

The mad estimator: when is it non-linear? applications to two-way design models

The mean absolute deviation (MAD) estimator has recently received a great deal of attention as applied to full-rank linear regression models. This paper provides a necessary and sufficient condition for the MAD estimator to be a non-linear estimator, in which case conditions for the variance of the MAD estimator to be larger or smaller than those for OLS are, in general, unknown. The non-linearity of the MAD estimator is examined for several two-way designs; in particular (1) randomized block design (2) two-way nested design (3) two-way classification with interaction and (4) partially balanced incomplete block design     

网络渠道交易价值的实证分析——以L品牌手机淘宝BtoC店为例

以国产手机著名品牌L品牌淘宝BtoC店为例,按入口时搜索的关键词的特点,将来访顾客分成渠道忠诚访客和品牌忠诚访客,连续30天观察总的页面浏览量、2种类型的访客数量、分别带来的成交量,以及每日询盘量。对渠道忠诚顾客带来的成交占总成交的比例进行均值估计,得知其比例为38.3%;对2类访客与相应的成交量分别作回归分析,结论均为有显著影响。文章在此基础上对提高网店价值,提出了相应的建议。