THE FAILURE TO PREDICT THE GREAT RECESSION—A VIEW THROUGH THE ROLE OF CREDIT

Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest crisis. Reading the literature, it seems that this crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind not to see it coming. We approach this failure by looking at one of the key variables in this analysis, the evolution of credit. We compare the conclusions reached in the recent literature with those that could have been drawn from an ex‐ante analysis. We show that the effect of credit on the business cycle cannot be exploited from a policymaker's point of view.     

生态翻译视域下隐喻翻译研究——以《围城》英译本为例

隐喻作为一个非常巧妙的语言应用现象,非常值得研究。本文拟从生态翻译学对其进行研究。生态翻译学是一个从生态学角度研究翻译活动、翻译现象和翻译理论的新的研究范式。本文着重从适应/选择,三维转换和整体/关联的角度对《围城》这一文学巨著中典型的隐喻现象的翻译进行讨论,旨在开拓隐喻研究的新视角     

基于CAN总线的隧道通风监测系统设计

为了实现隧道通风监测系统的高安全可靠性、远距离信息传输、多节点网络监测等要求,提出了基于CAN总线 技术的隧道通风监控系统。设计了基于CAN总线技术的控制系统硬件结构,介绍了烟雾和温度检测原理;设计了基于 CAN总线的通风系统监测节点;设计了工控机与CAN总线通信接口适配卡;设计了系统主程序、事件检查和处理子程序 的流程图。应用结果表明该系统具有传输距离远、监测网络节点多等特点,大大提高了系统的实时性和可靠性。     

论十七年文学的忧患意识——兼与夏志清教授商榷

夏志清教授曾认为“感时忧国”精神是中国现代文学的主要特征,其他各历史阶段的文学是不存在该精神的。但是,如果仔细辨析“感时忧国”精神的源流,深入分析十七年文学相关文本,我们会发现该精神不过是积淀在中国知识分子思想深层的忧患意识在新的历史条件下的置换与发展,它在十七年文学中并没有全然消失而是得到了一定程度的继承。对此,夏志清的相关文章也是充满悖论的。     

Measures of individual risk attitudes and portfolio choice: Evidence from pension participants

We use a large non-student sample to test how distinct measures of risk-attitudes relate to each other, to demographic characteristics and to real-life risk taking in the financial domain. These measures, namely the Bomb Risk Elicitation Task (BRET), self-reported willingness to take risks in general, the choice in a hypothetical lottery, the score in the Domain Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT) scale, appear to be positively correlated and exhibit a certain degree of consistency. Furthermore, a subset of these measures is driven by similar demographic characteristics as such that males are more risk seeking and risk-aversion increases with age. Using extensive data on the retirement portfolios of the participants during the years 2008–2014, we find that all of these measures are positively correlated with the riskiness of individual portfolios. The self-reported willingness to take risks in general appears to be the most relevant measure in predicting actual risk-taking behavior.     

Do people think about absolute or relative price differences when choosing between substitute goods?

The article presents experimental evidence that shows that people often consider relative price differences in addition to absolute differences when choosing between substitute goods. Because the choice between substitute goods is a very common one, this is an important finding. The experiment uses scenarios in various consumption categories: hotel rooms, flights, and books. Subjects were either students or participants in an economics conference. The data allow to reject the hypothesis that people think only about relative price differences in favor of the hypothesis that people think about both relative and absolute price differences. Whether the price given to the subjects is that of the high-quality good or of the low-quality good makes a large difference, a result that is related to the endowment effect and the status quo bias. Implications of the results for business strategy and other areas are also discussed.     

The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it

We explore sustainable paths out of a debt trap with a highly stylized two-sector differential equations model for the stocks of money in Government and Society. The model fits the data for the U.S. between 1981 and 2012 with a coefficient of correlation of 0.996. The solutions provide detailed “escape conditions” from the debt trap. A primary surplus is required. Then a government can escape its debt trap either through sustained annual monetary outflows from society to the government (taxation) but with a low initial growth rate, or through annual monetary inflows into both sectors (stimulus) with higher initial growth rate. We illustrate the use of our model with simulations which show how five indebted countries can escape their debt trap in 30 (or 70) years.     

LOG-PERIODOGRAM ESTIMATION OF LONG MEMORY VOLATILITY DEPENDENCIES WITH CONDITIONALLY HEAVY TAILED RETURNS

ABSTRACT

Many recent papers have used semiparametric methods, especially the log-periodogram regression, to detect and estimate long memory in the volatility of asset returns. In these papers, the volatility is proxied by measures such as squared, log-squared, and absolute returns. While the evidence for the existence of long memory is strong using any of these measures, the actual long memory parameter estimates can be sensitive to which measure is used. In Monte-Carlo simulations, I find that if the data is conditionally leptokurtic, the log-periodogram regression estimator using squared returns has a large downward bias, which is avoided by using other volatility measures. In United States stock return data, I find that squared returns give much lower estimates of the long memory parameter than the alternative volatility measures, which is consistent with the simulation results. I conclude that researchers should avoid using the squared returns in the semiparametric estimation of long memory volatility dependencies.     

C2C卖家的诚信行为模式及其动态性研究

现有电子商务的信用评价体系单一维度的特点使得评级体系难以准确衡量、比较店铺在各维度之间的差异及其变化。为了提高C2C电子商务信用评级体系的信息揭示作用,本文试图从多维度指标分析店铺的诚信行为模式及其动态性。本文对淘宝7大行业不同信用等级的卖家的诚信指标数据进行聚类分析表明,店铺在动态评分、信用等级、好评率上分别具有六类不同的静态组合特征,信用积分在解释店铺诚信状态上弱于动态评分和好评率指标。动态模式分析表明,店铺的好评率、动态评分指标及其与同业行业比值会呈现出三个不同的组合变化趋势。最后本文提出对现有的评价体系改进,以体现店铺之间在模式上的差异,从而真实展现卖家的诚信水平。     

中国C2C交易市场电子服务质量对顾客忠诚的影响——以顾客满意和顾客价值为中介变量

通过构建整合性的理论研究模型，揭示了C2C交易市场电子服务质量、顾客满意、顾客价值以及顾客忠诚之间相互作用的机理。并对中国具有C2C网上购物经验的用户进行问卷调查，建立结构方程模型，采用验证性因子分析法实证检验研究假设。研究结果发现：（1）C2C网站的电子服务质量对顾客满意和顾客价值产生显著的正向影响；（2）C2C卖家的电子服务质量对顾客满意产生显著的正向影响，对顾客价值的影响不显著；（3）顾客满意和顾客价值都对顾客忠诚产生显著的正向影响；（4）确认了顾客满意和顾客价值在C2C交易市场电子服务质量和顾客忠诚之间的中介效应。根据研究结论对C2C交易网站和网上卖家提高电子服务质量和顾客忠诚提出一些富有决策指导意义的对策和建议。