The goal-oriented approach to evaluation: Critique and case study from drug abuse treatment

The specification and measurement of program goals remains central to most evaluation research strategies, yet procedures for implementing this approach are not well-articulated. It is the purpose of this discussion to describe a stepwise procedure for programmatic goal setting and monitoring used in a demonstration drug treatment program for women. Three implementation steps are described: (a) goal setting, (b) checking for consistency, (c) monitoring and feedback. The advantages and limitations of this approach are discussed and useful complementary measurement strategies are suggested.     

Projective (2n,n,λ,1)-designs

A projective (2n,n,λ,1)-design is a set $\text{D}$ of n element subsets (called blocks) of a 2n-element set V having the properties that each element of V is a member of λ blocks and every two blocks have a non-empty intersection. This paper establishes existence and non-existence results for various projective (2n,n,λ,1)-designs and their subdesigns.     

Procedures for improving the mle for ordered binomial parameters

The problem is that of estimating the probabilities of m independent binomial random variables when their probabilities are known to be nondecreasing and the loss function is squared error. In the cases where the m.l.e. is inadmissible (essentially when the total number of trials is 7 or more) we present a method for modifying the m.l.e. to get a better estimator. The method requires a series of changes. At each step we alter the action taken by the m.l.e. on each of three, appropriately chosen, points in the sample space.     

‘Public toilets for a diverse neighborhood’: Spatial purification practices in community development discourse

This paper explores the dialectic of place and community identity in Mount Pleasant, a multi–ethnic and multi–class U.S. neighborhood where definitions of place are hotly contested among its residents. In a grant proposal for public toilets, Mount Pleasant writers use linguistic strategies such as presupposition, deixis, and contrast, coupled with discursive themes of filth and geography, to construct a core of the Mount Pleasant community. The writers place themselves and people who share their values in that core, and immigrants at the margins. These strategies serve as a discursive type of spatial purification practice (cf. Sibley 1988) through which the grantwriters set up a moral and spatial order where they and other core community members are deemed to use space ‘appropriately’, and thus inhabit positive moral positions, while immigrant community members’ imputed ‘inappropriate’ use of space is used to construct negative moral positions for them.     

And yet they Co-move! Public capital and productivity in OECD

In this paper, we add to the debate on the public capital–productivity link by applying very recent developments in the panel time series literature that take into account cross sectional correlation in non-stationary panels. In particular, we evaluate the productive effect of public capital by estimating various production functions on a panel of 21 OECD countries over the period 1975–2002. Our results suggest that public capital has a positive long run impact on output, with elasticities that range between 0.05 and 0.15, depending on model specification. These findings are robust to the existence of spillover effects from public capital investments in other countries and to the inclusion of other productivity determinants, like human capital, the stock of patents and R&D capital. Finally, we do not find any important effect of public capital on GDP in the short run: this suggests that public infrastructure investments might not be a powerful countercyclical policy instrument.     

LABOR‐MARKET HETEROGENEITY,AGGREGATION, AND POLICY (IN)VARIANCE OF DSGE MODEL PARAMETERS

Data from a heterogeneous‐agents economy with incomplete asset markets and indivisible labor supply are simulated under various fiscal policy regimes and an approximating representative‐agent model is estimated. Preference and technology parameter estimates of the representative‐agent model are not invariant to policy changes and the bias in the representative‐agent model’s policy predictions is large compared to predictive intervals that reflect parameter uncertainty. Since it is not always feasible to account for heterogeneity explicitly, it is important to recognize the possibility that the parameters of a highly aggregated model may not be invariant with respect to policy changes.     

B2C网站设计因素与初始信任关系的实证研究

通过实证探索并验证了网站结构、网站内容和视觉效果对消费者初始信任的影响,同时还验证了社会存在感在其中所起的中介作用.研究结果发现:网站结构和网站内容对消费者初始信任有着直接的积极影响,社会存在感在其中承担着部分中介作用;网站视觉效果对消费者初始信任的影响虽不显著,但却对社会存在感有着显著的影响.     

The empirical analysis of the -bilateral optimized combinatorial auction model

This study proposes a new and highly efficient dynamic combinatorial auction mechanism—the N-bilateral optimized combinatorial auction (N-BOCA). N-BOCA is a flexible iterative combinatorial auction model that offers more optimized trading for multiple suppliers and purchasers in the supply chain than one-sided combinatorial auction. We design the N-BOCA model from the perspectives of market architecture, trading rules, and decision strategy for winner determination, the decision strategy for winner determination needs flexible optimization modeling capability. Thus rule-based reasoning was applied for reflecting the flexible decision strategies. We also show the viability of N-BOCA through Paired Samples T-test experimentation. It shows that N-BOCA yields higher purchase efficiency and effectiveness than the one-auctioneer to multi-bidders (1-to-N) combinatorial auction mechanism.     

THE FAILURE TO PREDICT THE GREAT RECESSION—A VIEW THROUGH THE ROLE OF CREDIT

Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest crisis. Reading the literature, it seems that this crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind not to see it coming. We approach this failure by looking at one of the key variables in this analysis, the evolution of credit. We compare the conclusions reached in the recent literature with those that could have been drawn from an ex‐ante analysis. We show that the effect of credit on the business cycle cannot be exploited from a policymaker's point of view.     

Leadership selection: Can changing the default break the glass ceiling?

Leadership selection often requires candidates to actively choose to express their interest. Using a series of incentivized experiments with more than 1000 participants, we compare such an Opt-in mechanism with an Opt-out mechanism where everyone qualified for the position is in the candidate pool by default, but individuals can choose to opt out of the selection process. The results reveal a gender gap in participation decisions under the Opt-in mechanism. The gender gap exists even when individuals know they are the top performers, suggesting helping women improve their performance may not necessarily reduce gender gaps. Importantly, women are more likely to participate under the Opt-out mechanism and gender gaps in leadership selection are reduced.