基于五普数据对四普数据质量的估计

本文在考虑了第四次人口普查和第五次人口普查的调查时点差异后,采用列克西斯图图示法,运用人口逆存活分析技术并结合对比分析方法,对第四次人口普查数据质量进行了重新评估。研究发现,“四普”0—9岁人口存在严重漏报,男女两性合计漏报人口1269万;10-18岁人口不仅存在漏报,也存在重报;男女分性别漏报人口之间也存在较大差异。     

On minimum Hellinger distance estimation

Efficiency and robustness are two fundamental concepts in parametric estimation problems. It was long thought that there was an inherent contradiction between the aims of achieving robustness and efficiency; that is, a robust estimator could not be efficient and vice versa. It is now known that the minimum Hellinger distance approached introduced by Beran [R. Beran, Annals of Statistics 1977;5:445–463] is one way of reconciling the conflicting concepts of efficiency and robustness. For parametric models, it has been shown that minimum Hellinger estimators achieve efficiency at the model density and simultaneously have excellent robustness properties. In this article, we examine the application of this approach in two semiparametric models. In particular, we consider a two‐component mixture model and a two‐sample semiparametric model. In each case, we investigate minimum Hellinger distance estimators of finite‐dimensional Euclidean parameters of particular interest and study their basic asymptotic properties. Small sample properties of the proposed estimators are examined using a Monte Carlo study. The results can be extended to semiparametric models of general form as well. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 514–533; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Discrete‐time survival trees

Tree‐based methods are frequently used in studies with censored survival time. Their structure and ease of interpretability make them useful to identify prognostic factors and to predict conditional survival probabilities given an individual's covariates. The existing methods are tailor‐made to deal with a survival time variable that is measured continuously. However, survival variables measured on a discrete scale are often encountered in practice. The authors propose a new tree construction method specifically adapted to such discrete‐time survival variables. The splitting procedure can be seen as an extension, to the case of right‐censored data, of the entropy criterion for a categorical outcome. The selection of the final tree is made through a pruning algorithm combined with a bootstrap correction. The authors also present a simple way of potentially improving the predictive performance of a single tree through bagging. A simulation study shows that single trees and bagged‐trees perform well compared to a parametric model. A real data example investigating the usefulness of personality dimensions in predicting early onset of cigarette smoking is presented. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 17‐32; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Three enigmatic examples and inference from likelihood

Statistics has many inference procedures for examining a model with data to obtain information concerning the value of a parameter of interest. If these give different results for the same model and data, one can reasonably want a satisfactory explanation. Over the last eighty years, three very simple examples have appeared intermittently in the literature, often with contradictory or misleading results; these enigmatic examples come from Cox, Behrens, and Box & Cox. The procedures in some generality begin with an observed likelihood function, which is known to provide just first order accuracy unless there is additional information that calibrates the parameter. In particular, default Bayes analysis seeks such calibration in the form of a model‐based prior; such a prior with second order accuracy is examined for the Behrens problem, but none seems available for the Box and Cox problem. Alternatively, higher‐order likelihood theory obtains such information by examining likelihood at and near the data and achieves third order accuracy. We examine both Bayesian and frequentist procedures in the context of the three enigmatic examples; simulations support the indicated accuracies. The Canadian Journal of Statistics © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

2000年先秦两汉文学研究

2000年的先秦两汉文学研究,首先体现了世纪之交的特征,回顾与展望成为讨论的热点."新学问大多由于新发现”,近年来地下文献的不断出土,对先秦两汉文学研究带来了前所未有的新境界,2000年有关这方面的研究有许多突破.除此新动向之外,2000年的先秦两汉文学研究,在一些基础传统研究专题方面,同样取得了令人满意的成绩.     

Intellectual spaces of practice and hope: power and culture in Portugal from the 1940s to the present

This paper examines configurations of power, authority and culture in Portugal in the twentieth century, and intellectual practices and spaces related to those configurations and in opposition to them. Portuguese national history and essentialized versions of Portugueseness are analysed in the work of such distinguished and influential intellectuals as António Sérgio, António José Saraiva and Eduardo Lourenço, in articulation with the role of high culture in the process of nation building throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. One particular structure of attitude and reference, constructed in the latter half of the nineteenth century, is foregrounded with reference to the History of Portugal by Oliveira Martins, in the context of the persistent contradictions and conflicts between progressive and conservative, modernizing and traditional, ‘historical’, formations and projects. In such a context, moments of oppositional, alternative and independent projects are worth looking into. Two decisive moments of social change in the second half of the twentieth century were the 1940s, and the late 1960s and early 1970s. The paper pays attention to the politics of culture of Neo-Realismo in the 1940s and its consequences for high and popular culture over the following decades, especially in the years leading to the democratic revolution of 25 April 1974. A brief analysis of the 1990s is articulated to the study of the change-producing projects in the 1940s and 1960s as part of the cultural studies practice the paper argues for.     

浅谈路由器及Win2000路由的应用方法

介绍了互联网的核心设备路由器的作用、基本原理及其作为网络连结设备的特点和分类,Win2000服务器路由功能的实现步骤.     

用Delphi实现基于小波变换的JPEG2000压缩

本文从Delphi的一般应用方法入手,给出了实现基于小波变换的JPEG2000压缩方法,详细的阐述小波变换的理论,介绍了实现过程中的技巧。     

欧盟电子货币机构之审慎监管

电子货币的发行与应用带来了许多重要的政策法律问题,为应对这些问题带来的挑战,欧盟于2000年9月18日发布了有关电子货币机构监管的指令———《关于电子货币机构业务开办、经营与审慎监管的2000/46/EC指令》,为电子货币机构的审慎监管确立了全面的管制框架。     

The limit distribution of a modified Shapiro–Wilk statistic for normality to Type II censored data

The Shapiro–Wilk statistic and modified statistics are widely used test statistics for normality. They are based on regression and correlation. The statistics for the complete data can be easily generalized to the censored data. In this paper, the distribution theory for the modified Shapiro–Wilk statistic is investigated when it is generalized to Type II right censored data. As a result, it is shown that the limit distribution of the statistic can be representable as the integral of a Brownian bridge. Also, the power comparison to the other procedure is performed.