Fast and Stable Algorithms for Computing and Sampling From the Noncentral Hypergeometric Distribution

Although the noncentral hypergeometric distribution underlies conditional inference for 2 × 2 tables, major statistical packages lack support for this distribution. This article introduces fast and stable algorithms for computing the noncentral hypergeometric distribution and for sampling from it. The algorithms avoid the expensive and explosive combinatorial numbers by using a recursive relation. The algorithms also take advantage of the sharp concentration of the distribution around its mode to save computing time. A modified inverse method substantially reduces the number of searches in generating a random deviate. The algorithms are implemented in a Java class, Hypergeometric, available on the World Wide Web.     

Making social policy work for economic development: the Nordic experience

The Nordic welfare states offer some lessons in a development context. A main achievement has been sustainable poverty reduction. Another important lesson is that, while democratization often leads to greater pressures for social policy expansion, social policy can also contribute to democratization. The Nordic countries further demonstrate that is possible to unify social protection with a competitive and growth-oriented economy. In a number of policy areas, particularly in relation to social services and labor market policy, the Nordic countries have also become leading modernizers. The women-friendly dual-earner model not only combats poverty among families with children, but also enables women to participate in the labor market. The future sustainability of the Nordic model of social policy hinges on the number of taxpayers that can be mobilized. In order to be successful in this, governments need to take a combined, or holistic, approach, and consider both micro motives and macro considerations.     

Tolerance‐based error reduction in multi‐agent bioassays

Some degree of error is inevitable in multi‐agent bioassays regardless of design or measurement technology. Estimation error can be reduced post facto by exploiting the matrix partial ordering of the bioassay survival estimates. The standard method for this is order‐restricted regression (ORR). If the joint action of the bioassay agents admits a tolerance‐based interpretation, additional structure beyond matrix partial ordering is available, leading to a new method of error reduction. This tolerance‐based error reduction (TBER) procedure almost always outperforms ORR. Like ORR, TBER applies to complete factorial bioassay designs and, using weighting, to incomplete designs.     

群体决策过程组织研究述评

群体决策研究作为决策理论研究的热点和前沿在国内外方兴未艾, 尚未形成一个完整的 理论体系. 作者结合近年来在群体决策, 特别是在决策过程研究方面所做的一些工作, 以决策 过程研究为侧重点对群体决策理论研究进展进行了评述, 并通过社会选择理论和集体决策理 论的比较, 对群体决策的研究框架作了一些尝试性的探讨.     

政府主管部门与市政公用企业的博弈分析

市政公用设施具有公共性、福利性、外部性、垄断性、超余性和秩序性的经济学特征. 政府 主管部门与市政公用企业间存在着委托代理关系. 模型分析的结论证明了: 计划经济体制下市 政公用企业享受的“先用后算、多用多补”的补贴政策是导致激励弱化、成本失控、政府负担加 重的根本原因; 改革初期的“补贴包干”政策在调动企业积极性、减轻政府负担方面取得了一定 的成效, 但是这种做法仅局限于对企业的放权让利, 还存在很多缺陷; 建立现代企业制度及政 府主管部门与市政公用企业间的委托代理关系, 完善激励机制, 可以最大限度地     

基于价值管理的6 I’s 管理模式: 形成与结构

围绕价值管理,分析了基于职能管理的管理知识体系存在的问题,即忽视创新;对企业效用的存在假设越来越偏离实际,从而导致对企业组织中激励的认识偏差,甚至出现目的与手段的倒置;对信息的假设和运用有误;缺乏系统与综合,忽视整合的作用.在此基础上,提出了以价值管理为核心概念建立管理知识体系的观点,并建立了相应的6I's管理模式的框架,分析了有关要素的内涵.     

Relationships of optimality for individual factors of a design

The optimality of two-factor experimental designs is studied in the dual senses of estimating contrasts in the parameters for each of the factors. The outline of comparison employed allows one to judge the performance of different designs for estimating contrasts of one set of parameters directly with the performance of the complementary set without going through a common intermediary step of considering all the parameters. The results hold for a wide class of optimality criteria (not merely D-, A- and E-optimality), which must satisfy a functional equation obtained in connection with our method. Also we investigate the optimality of row–column designs which satisfy an ‘adjusted orthogonality’ condition. Our point of departure is the paper by Shah, Raghavarao and Khatri (1976) and that of Mitchell and John (1977).     

Jackknifing in Categorical Data Analysis

Estimation of nonlinear functions of a multinomial parameter vector is necessary in many categorical data problems. The first and second order jackknife are explored for the purpose of reduction of bias. The second order jackknife of a function g(.) of a multinomial parameter is shown to be asymptotically normal if all second order partials ?²g( p )?dp_i?p_j obey a Hölder condition with exponent α>1/2. Numerical results for the estimation of the log odds ratio in a 2times2 table demonstrate the efficiency of the jackknife method for reduction of mean-square-error and the construction of approximate confidence intervals.     

减税规则的产权与效率——供给学派公平效率观的产权分析

凯恩斯主义主张通过增税实现收入均等化意义上的公平,供给学派则认为减税能够实现帕累托改进意义上的公平。前者被称之为增税规则公平,后者被称之为减税规则公平。二者虽然都是以资本主义市场经济赖以存在的排他性所有权作为产权基础,但增税规则有损所有权的排他性,两种规则从而有各自不同的效率。     

Modeling the demand reduction input-output (I-O) inoperability due to terrorism of interconnected infrastructures.

Interdependency analysis in the context of this article is a process of assessing and managing risks inherent in a system of interconnected entities (e.g., infrastructures or industry sectors). Invoking the principles of input-output (I-O) and decomposition analysis, the article offers a framework for describing how terrorism-induced perturbations can propagate due to interconnectedness. Data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce is utilized to present applications to serve as test beds for the proposed framework. Specifically, a case study estimating the economic impact of airline demand perturbations to national-level U.S. sectors is made possible using I-O matrices. A ranking of the affected sectors according to their vulnerability to perturbations originating from a primary sector (e.g., air transportation) can serve as important input to risk management. For example, limited resources can be prioritized for the "top-n" sectors that are perceived to suffer the greatest economic losses due to terrorism. In addition, regional decomposition via location quotients enables the analysis of local-level terrorism events. The Regional I-O Multiplier System II (RIMS II) Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce is the agency responsible for releasing the regional multipliers for various geographical resolutions (economic areas, states, and counties). A regional-level case study demonstrates a process of estimating the economic impact of transportation-related scenarios on industry sectors within Economic Area 010 (the New York metropolitan region and vicinities).