Demystifying the Integrated Tail Probability Expectation Formula

ABSTRACT

Calculating the expected values of different types of random variables is a central topic in mathematical statistics. Targeted toward students and instructors in both introductory probability and statistics courses and graduate-level measure-theoretic probability courses, this pedagogical note casts light on a general expectation formula stated in terms of distribution and survival functions of random variables and discusses its educational merits. Often consigned to an end-of-chapter exercise in mathematical statistics textbooks with minimal discussion and presented under superfluous technical assumptions, this unconventional expectation formula provides an invaluable opportunity for students to appreciate the geometric meaning of expectations, which is overlooked in most undergraduate and graduate curricula, and serves as an efficient tool for the calculation of expected values that could be much more laborious by traditional means. For students’ benefit, this formula deserves a thorough in-class treatment in conjunction with the teaching of expectations. Besides clarifying some commonly held misconceptions and showing the pedagogical value of the expectation formula, this note offers guidance for instructors on teaching the formula taking the background of the target student group into account.     

律师拒证权的法经济学分析 ——以证据资源的稀缺性为视角

在刑事诉讼对抗制体系下,控辩双方对证据资源的需求和证据的供给之间发生了紧张关系,使证据成为一种稀缺资源.对于证人证言这样一种公共物品,法律通过设定真相作证义务满足了刑事诉讼对证据的需求.而对于律师基于职业关系所掌握的被告人的秘密信息,如果严格贯彻真相义务要求律师作证,则会产生类似于经济学意义上的外部影响问题.对于外部影响的解决,科斯定理给出了基本思路,即明确被告人对其秘密信息的排他性产权,并设立律师拒证权予以保护.     

A quadratic lower bound for colourful simplicial depth

We show that any point in the convex hull of each of (d+1) sets of (d+1) points in ℝ ^d is contained in at least ⌊(d+2)²/4⌋ simplices with one vertex from each set. Both authors were supported by NSERC Discovery grants. Additionally, T. Stephen was supported by DFG FG-468 and the Dynamical Systems research focus at the University of Magdeburg.     

Generalized anticipated backward stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motion and continuous increasing process*

This article mainly considers a new class of anticipated BSDEs driven by Brownian motion and continuous increasing process, which are called generalized anticipated backward stochastic differential equations(GABSDEs). We first give the form of GABSDEs. Then, existence and uniqueness result for GABSDEs is established as well as a comparison theorem is obtained under the certain assumptions. At last, we give an application about the duality between SDDEs and GABSDEs.     

Estimation of the integrated volatility using noisy high-frequency data with jumps and endogeneity

In this paper, we investigate a new estimator of the integrated volatility of Itô semimartingales in the presence of both market microstructure noise and jumps when sampling times are endogenous. In the first step, our estimation wipes off the effects of the microstructure noise, and in the second step our estimator shrinks the effects of jumps. We provide consistency of the estimator when the jumps have finite variation and infinite variation and establish a central limit theorem for the estimator in a general endogenous time setting when the jumps only have finite variation. Simulation illustrates the performance of the proposed estimator.     

Asymptotic distributions in affiliation networks with an increasing sequence

A central limit theorem for a linear combination of all the maximum likelihood estimators with an increasing dimension for affiliation networks has been established. Simulation studies are provided to illustrate the asymptotic results.     

A note on stable limit theory for the OLSE with non usual rates and the heteroskedasticity robust Wald test

We are occupied with an example concerning the limit theory of the ordinary least squares estimator (OLSE) when the innovation process of the regression has the form of a martingale transform the iid part of which lies in the domain of attraction of an α-stable distribution, the scaling sequence has a potentially diverging truncated α-moment, and the regressor process has a potentially divergent truncated second moment. We obtain matrix rates that reflect the stability parameter as well as the slow variations present in the aforementioned sequences, and stable limits. We also derive asymptotic exactness, consistency, and local asymptotic unbiasedness under appropriate local alternatives for a heteroskedasticity robust Wald test based on subsampling. The results could be useful for inference on the factor loadings in an instance of the APT model.     

The conditional maximum of Poisson random variables

The conditional maxima of independent Poisson random variables are studied. A triangular array of row-wise independent Poisson random variables is considered. If condition is given for the row-wise sums, then the limiting distribution of the row-wise maxima is concentrated onto two points. The result is in accordance with the classical result of Anderson. The case of general power series distributions is also covered. The model studied in Theorems 2.1 and 2.2 is an analogue of the generalized allocation scheme. It can be considered as a non homogeneous generalized scheme of allocations of at most n balls into N boxes. Then the maximal value of the contents of the boxes is studied.     

Optimal Berry–Esseen bound for parameter estimation of SPDE with small noise

We investigate a rate of convergence on asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for parameter $\theta$ appearing in parabolic SPDEs of the form

$d{u}^{?}(t,x)=(A_0+\theta A_1)u^{?}(t,x)dt+?dW(t,x),$

where $A_0$ and$A_1$ are partial differential operators, $W$ is a cylindrical Brownian motion (CBM) and $?\downarrow 0$. We find an optimal Berry–Esseen bound for central limit theorem (CLT) of the MLE. It is proved by developing techniques based on combining Malliavin calculus and Stein’s method.