A relation for the covariances of order statistics from n independent and non-identically distributed random variables

We derive a simple relation satisfied by the covariances of order statistics in the i.i.d. case and then generalize it to the case when the variables are independent and non-identically distributed. This relation could be employed successfully either to check the calculations or to reduce the amount of direct computations involved in evaluating the covariances of order statistics from an outlier model.     

房价上涨对我国人口出生率的影响——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

人口数量和结构是影响我国可持续发展的关键因素,住房是人民群众安居乐业的刚需。近年来,我国人口出生率持续下降。为了实现经济高质量发展,缓解人口危机是当前亟待解决的重要问题。为了探究房价上涨对于我国人口出生率的影响,利用31个省级行政区2010—2019年的面板数据和加权最小二乘法进行实证分析,结果表明：房价上涨对人口出生率产生显著的负向影响,住房价格平均上涨1%将导致人口出生率下降0.13%~0.22%;房价上涨对人口出生率的影响在东部省份以挤出效应为主、在中西部省份是以财富效应为主。当前,通过遏制住房投资投机性需求、给予“刚需”人群购房贷款优惠、适量增加东部省份土地供给等手段,可以助力解决我国当前的人口问题。     

脱贫成效精准:脱贫户获得感测度及其影响因素

从脱贫户获得感维度检验中国脱贫的实践效应。通过对广东省48 村1 518 已脱贫农户的调查研究,发现其家庭人均年收入持续增长且比已知脱贫收入线显著偏高,产业扶贫对收入增长的作用显著;脱贫户基于家庭劳动力人数、老人数和学生子女数等客观需求,多数自觉获得了体现客观机会获得的脱贫政策福利;脱贫户拥有较高的获得感,并没因调查个体的人口特征而存在差异,其显著地与客观需求呈负相关,与客观获得呈正相关,需求既定时客观获得增加,则获得感会显著提升,这意味着新时代基于需求-获得-满足的精准扶贫逻辑具有实践效应。在客观获得确定而需求增加时,获得感会显著偏低,收入的影响作用最大。因此,后脱贫时代需要继续推进乡村产业发展,加强对劳动力的职业技能培训和乡村教育扶持力度,从外部基础、成人主体内在动力和代际发展潜力来保障和提升脱贫成效的持续性。     

元前文献图籍所载黄河河源

有关黄河河源的概念，古代各种史学、地理、以及宗教文献都有相关记载。早期文献中提出的重源潜流的概念，也为塑造河源空间概念留下了发挥余地。及至唐朝，各种类书、笔记、野史关于位于境外的河源的著述沿用了上述文献中已有的地理知识，并融入了佛教世界观的空间概念以及唐代实地考察的纪录，逐渐构成了河源这一多元化的空间想象。本文探讨了不同知识框架对唐代河源记载的影响，以及在几幅现存宋代地图上所反映出的相关影响。这类文献资料有助于我们理解中古地理知识的深化与演变，以及后代地图上展示河源的更丰富的地图表现形式。     

Coming out within transnational families: intimate confessions under Western eyes*

This article is about ‘coming out’ and the process of disclosure of queer migrants within their transnational families. Despite debates about the decreasing relevance of coming out in contemporary western societies, we argue that the process of coming out continues to be a central mode of belonging and identity construction for queers in the context of transnational migration. Interviews with migrants from Poland, Russia and Turkey in Germany on their coming out experiences show that people rely on a variety of boundaries, i.e. gender, class and ethnicity, to construct a desired way of life. Theoretically, these insights indicate the need to reframe post-structuralist theories on power, most prominently advanced by Pierre Bourdieu and Michel Foucault, from an intersectional perspective. The findings in this paper pinpoint to the challenges of transnational social life queer migrants are confronted with through empirical illustrations of perceptions of differences and ambiguities between immigration and emigration contexts. Furthermore, we advocate that sexuality is a crucial dimension of migration processes determining self-definition in relation to people and places, which makes their stories of coming out always also stories of ‘coming home’.     

The changing landscape of public service delivery systems for disabled people in China: a Shanghai case study

This article will consider the current development of an emerging contract culture for the delivery of social services and its impact on disabled people in China. The discussion is based on an original qualitative study in Shanghai. The past 30 years have seen dramatic changes in China, which in parts have led to improvements in the lives of disabled people. The China Disabled Persons’ Federation (CDPF) became a key player in delivering these changes with the government. However, the CDPF is being criticized by disabled people for being too bureaucratic and not being effective enough in its delivery of services. One of its responses is to work with newly emerging not-for-profit organizations (NPOs) of and for disabled people. The CDPF has now begun to contract the delivery of some services to such NPOs. It is hoped that this may improve their effectiveness but the development of a contract culture in the delivery of services for disabled people may also be seen to pose a threat.     

Emancipated foster youth’s experiences and perceptions of the transition to adulthood

Using a grounded theory approach, this study evaluated narratives from a sample of 170 emancipated foster youth (66.5% female; 84.6% non-white) as they reflected on their experiences between the ages of 18 and 25 across three data waves. Corbin and Strauss’ (1990) three-phase coding process revealed five overarching themes: adult values and characteristics, nature of the transition process, material needs and resources, relationship concerns, and affective experiences. Although some elements of Arnett’s (2000) model of emerging adulthood were evident in this sample of emancipated foster youth, such as individualistic qualities and instability, other core features were rarely discussed, such as self-focus and optimism, or were expressed in unique ways, such as exploration and feeling in-between. There were significant age-related changes, but not gender differences, in youth’s discussion of varied themes. These findings suggest promising avenues for intervention during the sensitive period of developmental reorganization that characterizes the transition from adolescence to young adulthood.     

辛亥革命前武汉地区舆论宣传对武昌首义的作用

辛亥革命前夕,武汉地区的各革命组织为配合反清大业,发动了形式多样的革命宣传活动。经过长期的宣传,广泛发动了民众,争取并掌握了强有力的武装力量。辛亥起义之所以能在武昌打响第一枪并取得胜利,武汉地区的革命舆论宣传在其中起到了催生的作用。     

俄国农民外出打工与城市化进程

城市化的实质是农业人口向城市集中的过程。俄国城市化水平取决于农民迁移的方向和规模,农民外出打工和转入城市等级问题是理解俄国城市化的关键所在。俄国农民向城市迁移的进程缓慢的原因很多:以牺牲经济发展为代价的身份证制度严格限制了所有人的迁移,尤其限制了农民的迁移;村社制度通过连环保义务有力地约束了农民的出行,农民必须服从村社的监督;农民在经济上和血缘上与农村保持着天然的联系,一般将外出打工视为权宜之计;外出打工既冲击了村社的宗法制度,又有强化农民经济、延缓农民分化的作用。