北京市能源消费与经济增长关系研究

 本文利用面板协整理论和基于面板误差修正模型的Granger因果关系检验分析了北京市能源消费和经济增长的关系。面板协整检验表明北京市能源消费和经济增长之间存在长期协整关系,进一步基于面板误差修正模型的Granger因果关系检验表明北京市短期存在能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系,长期能源消费和经济增长之间存在双向的因果关系。因此北京市在进行节能减排的工作时,必须考虑到能源消费减少对经济增长的负作用,尽可能采取提高能源利用效率的措施,包括利用财政税收优惠政策鼓励节能技术的研发,在政府采购时要求产品在生产过程中采用节能技术,更关键也是更重要的是积极探索能源价格机制改革,通过价格手段促进企业真正具备节能意识,主动节约能源,提高利用效率。     

Experimental designs in management and leadership research: Strengths,limitations, and recommendations for improving publishability

Despite the renewed interest in the use of experimental designs in the fields of leadership and management over the past few decades, these designs are still relatively underutilized. Although there are several potential reasons for this, chief among them is misunderstanding the value of these designs. The purpose of this article is to review the role of laboratory, field, and quasi-experimental designs in management and leadership research. We first discuss the primary goals of experimental studies. Next, we examine the characteristics of experimental designs and how to distinguish laboratory, field, and quasi-experiments from one another and from non-experimental studies. Following these discussions, we provide examples of each type of experimental design and discuss their relative strengths and limitations. Finally, we discuss steps that researchers can take to increase the probability of having articles reporting experiments accepted by leadership and management journals.     

Likelihood methods in randomized trials with noncompliance and subsequent nonresponse

This article considers likelihood methods for estimating the causal effect of treatment assignment for a two-armed randomized trial assuming all-or-none treatment noncompliance and allowing for subsequent nonresponse. We first derive the observed data likelihood function as a closed form expression of the parameter given the observed data where both response and compliance state are treated as variables with missing values. Then we describe an iterative procedure which maximizes the observed data likelihood function directly to compute a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the causal effect of treatment assignment. Closed form expressions at each iterative step are provided. Finally we compare the MLE with an alternative estimator where the probability distribution of the compliance state is estimated independent of the response and its missingness mechanism. Our work indicates that direct maximum likelihood inference is straightforward for this problem. Extensive simulation studies are provided to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed methods.     

Causal relationships between background characteristics, service utilization, satisfaction, and service outcomes (school performance): A path analysis

This study develops a causal model to examine the relationships between service outcome (school performance) and consumer satisfaction, service utilization, and demographic characteristics of the youth receiving mental health services. Data for 281 children, aged 12–18, served from April 2003 to December 2004 were used for the analyses. Causal relationships among variables of the proposed model were tested by using AMOS, and the respecified model was accepted as the final model with good fit to the data (2 = 5.099, df = 8, NFI = .951, CFI = .998, RMSEA = .001). Results of the model test point to the importance of the children's age, service intensity, and consumer satisfaction as determinants of school performance outcome. In particular, increased worker satisfaction and overall satisfaction lead to increases in the perceived success satisfaction and this satisfaction, in turn, leads improvement in grades. Efforts to improve service satisfaction are emphasized and studies based on a more dynamic perspective are needed.     

Management’s causal reasoning on performance and earnings management

We investigate the association between the intensity of causal reasoning on performance in a firm’s annual management commentary and its earnings management propensity. Anticipated earnings management concerns are argued to constitute a significant accountability predicament, bringing management to offer more intense causal reasoning in order to mitigate investors’ earnings management concerns. We use computer-intensive techniques to measure causal reasoning intensity as a generic disclosure quality in the management commentary of a large sample of US firms from 1999 to 2007. We find that accruals earnings management (signed discretionary accruals) is positively associated with causal reasoning intensity. The positive association holds for alternative specifications of accruals earnings management (an earnings management dummy model and an analyst expectations model) and in a change model. Our results are consistent with the assertion that firms strategically use causal reasoning on performance to establish appropriateness and cognitive legitimacy, increase perceived plausibility of reported performance and mitigate performance-related concerns of investors.     

医疗行为侵权诉讼举证责任分配之探讨

《证据规定》确定由医疗机构就医疗行为不存在医疗过错以及医疗行为与损害不存在因果关系承担举证责任,表面上看似有利于维护患者的利益,但是却欠缺其制度设计应有的合理性。《侵权责任法》虽然确立医疗行为侵权实行过错责任原则,但就举证责任如何分配并未明确予以规定。     

现代名称理论的两个基本问题

现代逻辑产生以来,名称问题上的学术论争集中在描述理论和因果理论之间。塞尔一般被简单地归于前者。但从塞尔对现代名称理论所包含两个层面的基本问题的区分来看,他的成就是值得特殊对待的。由此视角出发,通过探究描述理论和因果理论各自的成就与不足,可系统把握现代名称理论的主要发展路径。     

Direct and Indirect Effects Based on Difference-in-Differences With an Application to Political Preferences Following the Vietnam Draft Lottery

Abstract

We propose a difference-in-differences approach for disentangling a total treatment effect within specific subpopulations into a direct effect and an indirect effect operating through a binary mediating variable. Random treatment assignment along with specific common trend and effect homogeneity assumptions identify the direct effects on the always and never takers, whose mediator is not affected by the treatment, as well as the direct and indirect effects on the compliers, whose mediator reacts to the treatment. In our empirical application, we analyze the impact of the Vietnam draft lottery on political preferences. The results suggest that a high draft risk due to the draft lottery outcome leads to an increase in mild preferences for the Republican Party, but has no effect on strong preferences for either party or on specific political attitudes. The increase in Republican support is mostly driven by the direct effect not operating through the mediator that is military service.     

社会信任与基层社区治理效应的因果机制

本文尝试回答社会信任对基层社区治理效应产生影响的具体机制。本文认为,社会信任通过具体的中间传输机制影响基层社区治理效应。根据以往理论和实证发现,本研究选取并检验了选举质量、大众参与和非政府组织等三个具体的中间机制。结果表明,社会信任虽然对社区治理有着重要影响,但其影响并非直接的,而是借由中间机制实现的;普遍信任对选举质量产生显著的正面影响,即对社区居委会的治理效应产生积极影响;特殊信任对选举质量和业委会建立产生显著的负面影响,进而对社区居委会的治理效应产生消极影响。