On distribution-weighted partial least squares with diverging number of highly correlated predictors

Summary.  Because highly correlated data arise from many scientific fields, we investigate parameter estimation in a semiparametric regression model with diverging number of predictors that are highly correlated. For this, we first develop a distribution-weighted least squares estimator that can recover directions in the central subspace, then use the distribution-weighted least squares estimator as a seed vector and project it onto a Krylov space by partial least squares to avoid computing the inverse of the covariance of predictors. Thus, distrbution-weighted partial least squares can handle the cases with high dimensional and highly correlated predictors. Furthermore, we also suggest an iterative algorithm for obtaining a better initial value before implementing partial least squares. For theoretical investigation, we obtain strong consistency and asymptotic normality when the dimension p of predictors is of convergence rate O { n ^1/2/ log ( n )} and o ( n ^1/3) respectively where n is the sample size. When there are no other constraints on the covariance of predictors, the rates n ^1/2 and n ^1/3 are optimal. We also propose a Bayesian information criterion type of criterion to estimate the dimension of the Krylov space in the partial least squares procedure. Illustrative examples with a real data set and comprehensive simulations demonstrate that the method is robust to non-ellipticity and works well even in 'small n –large p ' problems.     

A variable-neighbourhood search algorithm for finding optimal run orders in the presence of serial correlation

The responses obtained from response surface designs that are run sequentially often exhibit serial correlation or time trends. The order in which the runs of the design are performed then has an impact on the precision of the parameter estimators. This article proposes the use of a variable-neighbourhood search algorithm to compute run orders that guarantee a precise estimation of the effects of the experimental factors. The importance of using good run orders is demonstrated by seeking D-optimal run orders for a central composite design in the presence of an AR(1) autocorrelation pattern.     

Imagined mosque communities in Russia: Central Asian migrants in Moscow

ABSTRACT

The article aims to shed light on mosque communities in Russia through the example of mosques frequented by Moscovites and by Central Asian migrants. I will make use of Anderson’s theoretical framework of ‘imagined community’ in analysing the material presented in the article. The main argument is that there are no real mosque communities and rather that the sense of community formed around mosques is imagined. There are nevertheless a variety of networks, groups and institutions within and around mosques. The article is based on fieldwork conducted in 2016 and 2017.     

晚唐五代敦煌寺院与中原田庄比较研究

晚唐五代时期敦煌处于吐蕃和归义军的统治, 此时的寺院模式与中原历代形成的田庄极为相似。通过二者在阶级构成、经济生产、社会关系等方面的比较, 可得出结论: 此时之敦煌寺院为不完全之田庄。     

英俄角逐中亚与1873年英俄协定

本文以19世纪前期的中亚为背景,勾勒了该时期英俄争夺中亚,并达成1873年英俄协定的历史概貌,以便使我们对英俄进行殖民掠夺的本性有一个全新的认识.     

中央政府支持边远地区的经济项目在立项设计、效益评估方面所涉及到的各种因素

本文从建国后中央政府支持的边远地区经济项目的得与失出发,阐述了这些项目设计立项时应当考虑的各种因素及效益评估办法。     

中国货币当局资产负债表结构与货币政策调控方式转变

货币当局资产负债表是分析央行行为与货币政策执行情况的一个重要报表。我国货币当局资产负债表科目随着经济金融结构的演变经历了多次调整,本文梳理了我国货币当局资产负债表结构及其演变过程,重新编制1999-2018年的年度可比货币当局资产负债表,通过解析各科目余额及其结构的动态变化特征,揭示统计数据背后的经济逻辑与政策实践、以及重要资产负债科目间的勾稽关系。研究发现：外汇占款和对其他存款性公司的债权是我国货币当局投放基础货币的主要渠道。过去20年中,两种渠道此消彼长反映出我国基础货币投放方式和货币政策调控方式的两次重要转变与创新。在外汇占款大幅增长时期,货币当局曾通过频繁提高法定存款准备金率和发行央行票据回笼过剩流动性。随着国际收支顺差收窄和国内经济由高速增长向高质量发展转变,公开市场操作和创新型再贷款工具将成为货币当局主动投放基础货币的重要渠道。     

论康有为《大同书》中的素质教育思想

康有为在《大同书》中提出针对人口不同年龄阶段的身心特点施以不同的教育引导,将大同社会的教育分为前后衔接的五阶段;他提倡五育并重,德育为先。康有为的素质教育思想体现出人本主义和新伦理主义的色彩,具有深远的人口学和教育学意义,对于我们当前提倡的素质教育仍具有可资借鉴的时代价值。     

12世纪前中央亚细亚草原的鞑靼人及其国家

波斯史学家拉施特丁的《史集》为研究蒙古人统治之前中央亚细亚草原上鞑靼人的历史提供了重要信息。拉施特丁认为,蒙古人统治之前中央亚细亚草原地区的居民以突厥部落为主,其组织"结构"为6个鞑靼人国家。本文以鄂尔浑和叶尼塞河流域突厥如尼文碑铭记载为依据,参照汉文史籍、敦煌和波斯手稿等的记载,探讨了9—12世纪在甘肃和新疆的广阔地域内活动的鞑靼人及其政权、9世纪上额尔齐斯河流域基马克人及其部落联盟的形成与鞑靼人之间的关系。