Asymptotic linearity and limit distributions,approximations

Linear and quadratic forms as well as other low degree polynomials play an important role in statistical inference. Asymptotic results and limit distributions are obtained for a class of statistics depending on μ+X$\mu +\mathbf{X}$, with X any random vector and μ$\mu$ non-random vector with ∥μ∥→+∞$\parallel \mu \parallel \to +\infty$. This class contain the polynomials in μ+X$\mu +\mathbf{X}$. An application to the case of normal X is presented. This application includes a new central limit theorem which is connected with the increase of non-centrality for samples of fixed size. Moreover upper bounds for the suprema of the differences between exact and approximate distributions and their quantiles are obtained.     

Asymptotic normality of kernel type regression estimators for random fields

The asymptotic normality of the Nadaraya–Watson regression estimator is studied for α-mixing$\alpha \text{-}\mathrm{mixing}$ random fields. The infill-increasing setting is considered, that is when the locations of observations become dense in an increasing sequence of domains. This setting fills the gap between continuous and discrete models. In the infill-increasing case the asymptotic normality of the Nadaraya–Watson estimator holds, but with an unusual asymptotic covariance structure. It turns out that this covariance structure is a combination of the covariance structures that we observe in the discrete and in the continuous case.     

中国经济统计学60年

新中国经济统计学经过了六十年的发展历程。本文从经济统计学的学科内涵分析出发,在历史与现实的背景下,通过国际比较研究,系统探讨了中国经济统计学的理论基础、学科定位与发展思路等问题。     

摆脱国际金融危机阴影 迅速恢复正常增长 ——2009年中国经济运行回顾

 受全球金融危机的影响,2009年初的我国经济延续上年的下滑走势,尔后在一揽子调控政策的作用迅速回升。尽管恶劣的外部环境始终困扰着我国经济,但没有妨碍经济回升的进行, 四季度的经济增长速度已经恢复至正常水平。     

基于MCMC稳态模拟的异质性经济增长模型研究

 针对同质性增长模型无法描述各个经济体经济增长存在的异质性现象,提出了一类基于MCMC稳态模拟的异质性经济增长模型,它可以用来描述经济增长的异质性以及政策变量的差异影响。由于模型参数的后验条件分布没有确定的分布形式,通过数据扩充得到参数的完全条件分布从而实现模型参数的贝叶斯估计。对改革开放以来我国各省市区经济增长收敛性进行分析发现大规模股份制改革前经济增长具有同质性而大规模股份制改革后经济增长具有异质性,且可以用新古典经济增长理论来解释各地区经济的发展状况。     

基于投入产出法的农村居民消费对经济增长的贡献研究——以重庆市为例

当前,国际金融危机持续蔓延,我国经济也毫不例外地受到强烈的冲击,经济增长速度明显放缓。而内需不足是造成这一现象最主要的原因之一,如何扩大内需应对金融危机以促进经济健康持续发展成为我国的热点话题。本文在总结前人研究的基础上建立线性回归模型和投入产出模型测算重庆市农村居民消费对国民经济各部门的拉动份额。结果表明农村居民消费对国民经济增长贡献较城镇居民更具潜力,应通过构建和完善城乡产业体系促进农村居民消费水平的提高。并通过线性神经网络模型对重庆市农村居民消费结构进行了预测,最后根据模型测算结果提出了促进农村居民消费、拉动经济良性增长的对策建议。     

锦标赛体制与中国省级开发区的增长——基于省级经验的研究

开发区是中国地方政府参与经济发展的重要方式。在“为增长而竞争”的背景下,中国的省级开发区在1984-2006年间大幅增加,其增长过程表现出明显的地区差异和时期波动。本文利用省级层面的面板数据,从“锦标赛体制”理论的角度具体研究了预算约束、省际竞争和国家制度变迁三个因素对中国省级开发区增长过程的影响。研究发现,虽然地方经济发展水平构成了地方政府设立开发区的重要预算约束,但是各省省级开发区所经历的并不是一个受自身资源约束支配的自然增长过程,国家制度变迁因素对这一过程的影响更大。具体而言,一方面,国家层面的制度变迁造成了省级开发区增长过程的时期波动（省内）;另一方面,国家区域发展政策的变动引发了省级开发区增长过程中区域数量差异（省际）的时期变动。虽然开发区数量在各省普遍大幅增长,但根据本文的测量方案,在省级开发区的年度新增数量上并不存在显著的省际竞争。对于锦标赛体制理论的适用性仍需更多实证研究的检验。     

The Search for Coordination: The Case of the Central Policy Review Staff and Social Policy Planning, 1971–77

The Central Policy Review Staff (CPRS) attempted to create an ambitious strategy for the horizontal coordination of social policy in the UK during the early 1970s. The attempt – inspired largely by planning, programming and budgeting systems – was a failure, and gave way to a much modified ‘joint framework for social policies’ in 1975. Recent research has compared the CPRS's joint framework approach to the Labour government's promotion of ‘joined‐up government’ (JUG) in the 2000s. This article provides a case study of the CPRS's work on social policy planning, using archival sources. The case study addresses themes that remain significant, particularly approaches to and the politics of horizontal coordination. Finally, the article makes a modest attempt to signal the differences between the 1970s' approach and ‘JUG’.     

Welfare Attitudes of Singaporeans – Ambiguity in Shifting Socio‐political Dynamics

This article presents findings from a survey of 440 Singaporeans on their attitudes towards welfare and welfare recipients. Attitudes were generally favourable, but sentiments towards higher taxes to help the poor were ambivalent. Controlled for demographic characteristics, ‘poverty sympathizers’ and affiliates of opposition political parties held the most liberal views, but were not more willing to pay higher taxes. Instead, poor respondents on the one hand and highly educated respondents on the other hand were more willing to pay higher taxes. Knowledge accumulation and beliefs about causes of poverty were strong predictors of attitudes. Effects of personal values and self‐interest were less evident. Couched against the backdrop of an economy that has experienced rapid transformation and one of the widest income inequality in the developed world, the article discusses the critical juncture of social response and policy choices that Singapore finds itself.     

西藏昌都历代帕巴拉活佛与中央政府的关系研究

帕巴拉呼图克图是西藏昌都地区藏传佛教最具权势和名望的大活佛,其传承可追溯到明朝正统二年(1437年),从清顺治帝到乾隆帝期间,受封博善禅师、诺门汗、呼图克图尊号,受驻藏大臣和达赖喇嘛领导,直接管辖察木多(即今西藏昌都一带)地方。帕巴拉活佛的驻锡地为昌都强巴林寺,现已转世到第十一世。在其世系建立过程中,一世至十世帕巴拉间接或直接与祖国内地和中央政府发生亲密友好的历史,尤其是十一世帕巴拉活佛帕巴拉.格列朗杰,把历代帕巴拉与中央政府的亲密关系再次推向高潮,帕巴拉活佛之所以在宗教和政治领域有着崇高的社会地位与威望,除了自身的宗教造诣赢得广大信众的拥护爱戴外,更是与历代中央政府封赐和扶持的结果是完全分不开的。而这点不仅对于我们深刻理解西藏是中国不可分割的一部分具有重要的意义,而且对广大僧俗群众,尤其对藏传佛教活佛高僧具有很多有益的历史启示。