论科斯定理对庭审过程的启示

运用科斯定理可以对民事诉讼中双方当事人之间的“和解”要价进行定量分析,但是科斯定理分析问题的一个重要假设是“信息完美”,这在现实中是不存在的。博弈论认为策略行为的实质是博取“私人信息”,诉讼的发生率与信息不对称有较大的关联。庭审程序的设计要有利于各方获取他方的证据信息,便于当事人进行信息比较和估计;庭审过程应便于当事人获取对称的决策信息为目标;法官在庭审过程中的作用就是引导当事人从不完美信息趋向完美信息。双方当事人会根据证据交换、庭审质证认证的情况并结合自己可以接受的成本和风险底限决定自己的强硬策略值最终达到策略均衡。     

Opinion leaders,independence, and Condorcet's Jury Theorem

Condorcet's Jury Theorem shows that on a dichotomous choice, individuals who all have the same competence above 0.5, can make collective decisions under majority rule with a competence that approaches 1 as either the size of the group or the individual competence goes up. The theorem assumes that the probability of each voter's being correct is independent of the probability of any other voter being correct. Contrary to several authors, the presence of mutual or common influences such as opinion leaders does not easily rule independence either in or out. Indeed, and this ought to be surprising,under certain conditions deference to opinion leaders can improve individual competence without violating independence, and so can raise group competence as well.     

The generalized fluctuation test: A unifying view

In this paper, a general principle of constructing tests for parameter constancy without assuming a specific alternative is introduced. A unified asymptotic result is established to analyze this class of tests. As applications, tests based on the range of recursive and moving estimates are considered, and their asymptotic distributions are characterized analytically. Our simulations show that different tests have quite different behavior under various alternatives and that no test uniformly dominates the other tests.     

Finite-n Corrections to Normal Approximation

ABSTRACT

We show that the sampling distribution of a statistic which follows the Central Limit Theorem can be approximated by a Normal distribution, modified according to the statistic's first few moments. One can thus achieve an impressive accuracy even for relatively small samples.