流动性过剩：一个基于结构性失衡的解释

文章从理论上分析了消费投资结构失衡、消费储蓄结构失衡、收入分配结构失衡以及国际收支失衡对流动性过剩的影响,再根据2001—2007年的季度数据,利用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验从实证方面论证了消费投资结构失衡、消费储蓄结构失衡、收入分配结构失衡以及国际收支失衡是流动性过剩的根源。在此基础上,提出了综合运用财政、货币和外汇政策,实施金融改革和产业结构调整,完善收入分配制度等解决流动性过剩的措施。     

来华长期进修留学生阅读课教材需求分析

以来华长期进修的留学生为调查对象,对其在阅读课教材方面的需求进行了实证研究,主要结论如下：留学生对课文长度的接受程度为500—1000字,生词量为20％～30％,但不同水平、不同地区的学习者呈现需求的差异;留学生十分关注阅读教材的趣味性、时代性和阅读策略的指导功能,不同地区的学生表现了很大的差异;留学生对话题的选择呈现出多样化的趋向,不同地区的学生需求不同。     

国际政治关系中的"第二轨道"析论

"第二轨道"是介于官方外交("第一轨道")与纯民间交流("第三轨道")之间的一种特殊渠道,其突出特征是非官方性和有意识地影响官方决策。它凭借非官方的身份及与官方决策的特殊关系,在国际政治中发挥着独特而又重要的作用。"第二轨道"的兴起是当代国际政治演化发展的必然产物。它既给人们提供了一种认识国际政治关系的新的分析框架和研究范式,也有着优化国际政治关系、增加信任、缓解危机、推动国际政治关系向前发展的重要实践意义。     

百年诺贝尔奖获得者跨国移居流向的时空分析

科技人才是科技知识载体,科学大师定向流动造成科学中心从欧洲向美国转移。一百年以来,大批诺贝尔奖获得者由于躲避战火、追求良好科研环境和优厚待遇等因素,先后从欧洲大陆流向英国,从世界各地流向美国,导致科学中心从欧洲向美国转移。透过这些科学大师的迁移研究,寻找他们迁移的深层原因,以利于我国制定优惠政策,吸引人才、留住人才,为振兴中华科技事业构筑人才高地。     

美国实力的现实与局限

尽管美国实力的现实表现得非常明显,而且没有一个可与其实力相媲美的强有力的竞争对手,但如果其采取单边主义行为,它的局限就会表现出来。美国的政治、安全、军事、经济以及媒体等各个方面的实力都是客观存在的。美国所犯的错误可能不会导致世界秩序的崩溃,但极有可能削弱美国的相对实力并且疏远与其它国家的关系,从而弱化美国实力的效能,使美国的单边主义实现自我修正。     

利率平价偏离、资本账户开放与经济波动——基于小国DSGE模型的分析

基于中国资本管制、意愿结售汇改革、冲销干预等特征,引入国际风险溢价构建一个小国开放经济DSGE模型,分析了利率平价偏离时资本账户开放对中国经济波动和社会福利的影响.理论分析和数值模拟表明:1)利率平价偏离程度上升会增加本国通胀风险,加剧经济波动,伴随社会福利水平下降,如果央行忽略利率平价偏离的影响,将低估外国货币政策冲击对本国通胀和经济波动,以及社会福利的影响;2)资本账户开放会减小本国通胀风险,降低本国经济波动,提高社会福利水平.因此,中国应该坚持资本账户开放,稳步推进利率和汇率市场化改革,减小利率平价偏离程度,进一步提高资本账户开放的收益.     

Present and prospective health status of older adults in the Philippines: The role of education

Utilizing current information to project prospective ill health prevalence can help prepare the country to ensure the well-being of older people. The prevalence of ill health in terms of physical, psychological, and cognitive health dimensions was estimated by age, sex, and education attainment level using the 2018 Longitudinal Study on Aging and Health in the Philippines. Subsequently, the said rates were integrated into population projection estimates from 2020 to 2080. It was observed that the depression prevalence rate among older people was highest at above 40%, while physical and cognitive limitations were at around 18% and 22% respectively. It was also found that prevalence rates of ill health increased with age and that ill health was more prevalent among women than men, particularly at more advanced ages. The use of population projections has shown that education differentials in the analyses estimate lower prevalence rates of ill health for both sexes. The findings provide estimates for the prospective care needs of the older population in the Philippines. It was also suggested that education may possibly have preventive effects on ill health. Utilizing present information in order to prepare for issues can be beneficial for securing the well-being of older adults.     

劳工标准与国际贸易关系的趋势预测

国际贸易与劳工标准问题,一直是发达国家与发展中国家争议的焦点之一,二者是否会挂钩引起了大多数国家的重视。通过回顾国际贸易与劳工标准关系的现状和历史,分析二者的主要冲突,并结合国际贸易理论、世界的经济发展状况及其产生的根源和发展的可能性等方面来预测其发展趋势,从而推断出二者挂钩是难以避免的,是国际经济发展的要求和必然趋势。     

“Families” in International Context: Comparing Institutional Effects Across Western Societies

We review comparative evidence of institutional effects on families in Western societies. We focus on 2 key aspects of family life: gendered divisions of labor and people's transitions into, within, and out of relationships. Many individual‐level models assume the effects are robust across countries. The international evidence over the past decade suggests instead that the socioeconomic and policy contexts strongly influence the significance and even direction of individual effects. A growing body of evidence also highlights important differences across social groups and family forms within countries. The pattern of relative gender, class, and other group equality varies across countries, as do related family experiences and outcomes. We conclude with suggestions for future comparative family research.     

Socioeconomic Status,Family Processes,and Individual Development

Research during the past decade shows that social class or socioeconomic status (SES) is related to satisfaction and stability in romantic unions, the quality of parent‐child relationships, and a range of developmental outcomes for adults and children. This review focuses on evidence regarding potential mechanisms proposed to account for these associations. Research findings reported during the past decade demonstrate support for an interactionist model of the relationship between SES and family life, which incorporates assumptions from both the social causation and social selection perspectives. This review concludes with recommendations for future research on SES, family processes, and individual development in terms of important theoretical and methodological issues yet to be addressed.