Analysis of a continuous-time proportional hazard model using discrete duration data

Many economic duration variables are often available only up to intervals, and not up to exact points. However, continuous time duration models are conceptually superior to discrete ones. Hence, in duration analyses, one faces a situation with discrete data and a continuous model. This paper discusses (i) the asymptotic bias of a conventional approximation procedure in which a discrete duration is treated as an exact observation; and (ii) the efficiency of a correct maximum likelihood estimator which appropriately accounts for the discrete nature of the data.     

How culture influences foreign trade: evidence from the U.S. and China

Using a gravity model of trade and the U.S. and Chinese panel data, I present evidence that supports the views that linguistic links have become more important in foreign trade than geographical proximity and that linguistic influence on trade is more significant in China than in the U.S. The estimated result based on a broad panel of economies shows little overall relation between religious similarity and foreign trade in both the U.S. and China. But there is an indication that the religious dissimilarity tends to retard foreign trade with poor countries and regions and to encourage foreign trade with richer places. I also found that, although religious retardation on foreign trade is more significant in China than in the U.S., religious dissimilarity tends to retard the US export more than that of China; by contrast, it tends to retard the Chinese import more than that of the U.S. At last, the socio-economic implications of the estimated results are discussed.     

Direct and Indirect Causal Effects via Potential Outcomes*

Abstract. The use of the concept of ‘direct’ versus ‘indirect’ causal effects is common, not only in statistics but also in many areas of social and economic sciences. The related terms of ‘biomarkers’ and ‘surrogates’ are common in pharmacological and biomedical sciences. Sometimes this concept is represented by graphical displays of various kinds. The view here is that there is a great deal of imprecise discussion surrounding this topic and, moreover, that the most straightforward way to clarify the situation is by using potential outcomes to define causal effects. In particular, I suggest that the use of principal stratification is key to understanding the meaning of direct and indirect causal effects. A current study of anthrax vaccine will be used to illustrate ideas.     

论抗日民族统一战线的历史性功绩

中国共产党是中国人民抗日战争的中流砥柱,其重要功绩之一就是在民族危亡的关键时刻,高举起抗日民族统一战线的伟大旗帜。这面旗帜,开辟了中国政党政治的新局面,改变了尖锐对立的国共关系,国共两党重新合作,为抗日战争的胜利奠定了重要的政治基础;这面旗帜,为中国各民主党派的发展和壮大提供了机会和可能,民主党派成为抗日民族统一战线的重要组成部分,是中华民族团结抗日的积极力量;这面旗帜,最大限度地调动了中国人民的抗日积极性,广大人民群众成为抗日民族统一战线的主体和中坚力量,使抗日战争成为真正的人民战争;这面旗帜,使中国共产党在极其困难的条件下,开展了积极的外交活动,为其走向世界、被国际社会所承认创造了有利的条件。     

Political theater and student organizations in the 1989 Chinese movement: A multivariate analysis of Tiananmen

Social movement research has often been divided between organizational and cultural analyses of collective action. Organizationally oriented theorists have viewed indigenous organizational structure as the critical variable in the emergence of collective action. Political culture and cultural frame theorists have focused instead on the cultural frames that resonate with audiences, mobilizing them to action. But social movements cannot be the result of one or the other of these factors. An analysis of the 1989 Chinese movement illuminates the multivariate aspects of this social movement. This movement was a two-tiered movement with an organized student leadership tier and a mass audience. Enmeshed in university organizations and student networks, the student leaders relied on an organizational structure that had been emerging since the mid-1980s. This organized leadership tier employed cultural symbols and acts to mobilize mass audiences that were beyond the scope of the students' organizational linkages. The political theater of the organized student leaders was complemented by institutional changes that had been occurring over the decade of reform in China and a political opportunity that allowed wide coverage of the students' activities.     

西部企业发展与经济政策创新

西部地区政府的经济政策创新,可以弥补企业产权制度的缺陷,节约市场交易费用,推动企业实现效益最大化,优化资源配置,推动西部经济发展.     

世纪之交屈原研究的回顾和展望──'99岳阳两湖屈原与楚文化研讨会综述

综述了参与’99湖南岳阳两湖屈原与楚文化学术研讨会的专家学者的主要研究成果,介绍了有关世纪之交屈原研究的回顾与展望方面的成果。     

中日秘书工作特点之比较

受体制的影响 ,中国的秘书和秘书工作与日本相比存在较大的差异。主要表现在从业人员的组成、行业化、性别特点、自动化程度等四个方面。相比较之下 ,日本在这些方面更规范 ,更符合现代社会对秘书和秘书工作的要求。而改变中国的秘书和秘书工作现状则应从推行资格证书制度、建立秘书组织、提高秘书素质、改善工作手段等方面入手 ,使之更适应社会发展     

民国时期青海省人口统计研究

人口是社会发展的前提与基础,对人口数的还原是再现一个地区在某段时期社会状况的关键。在本文中,笔者通过对有限的资料认真详细的考证、周密细致的分析,论证了民国时期青海省人口发展具有较高的增长率——30‰左右;并以此为基础,对民国时期青海省各个年份的人口数作出估算,希冀能对青海地区社会研究提供借鉴参考。     

深刻领会“不忘初心、牢记使命”主题教育的总要求

【目的/意义】随着世情、民情、国情、党情的深刻变化,我国已经进入中国特色社会主义新时代。新的历史发展方位对中国共产党的党员队伍素质提出了更高更新的要求,以习近平同志为核心的党中央在全党和全国范围内开展了“不忘初心,牢记使命”的主题教育活动。【设计/方法】要把教育活动转化为长效制度,就需要通过对历史的追溯、对现实的脉诊、对理论的发展、对实践的回应和对未来的勾勒,寻求构建中国共产党“不忘初心,牢记使命”长效制度的内在逻辑支撑和外在学理依据。【结论/发现】坚持历史、现实、理论、实践和未来五重逻辑有着巨大的现实意义,回答了构建“不忘初心,牢记使命”制度的历史必然性、现实人民性、理论科学性、革命实践性和未来发展性。阐述和贯彻五重逻辑将为新时代中国共产党建设“不忘初心,牢记使命”的制度提供不竭动力和注入崭新内涵。