清代登陆海南岛台风对西南地区的影响

台风导致的暴雨，是中国东部地区最重要的天气灾害之一，对西南地区也有一定的影响。本文利用文献资料中的相关记载，利用台风登陆地点与路径的相关信息，重建了若干次影响到西南地区的强台风事件，并进一步研究了清代登陆海南台风的时间特征，发现登陆海南的台风序列在１７世纪后半期与１９世纪后半期都有一个明显的高峰期。而这两个高峰期与小冰期气温的两个谷值完全吻合，说明气温变化与台风系统活动的关系，需要进一步探索。     

对中国社会经济改革进程中收入不平等的认知:一个同期群组的分析

不同群组在对收入不平等的态度上是否会因为个人经历不同的时代背景而产生差异?运用2005年中国综合社会调查的数据,比较四组拥有不同时代背景经历的群组,在转型期对收入不平等的看法。研究结果显示,年龄较老的群组对于收入不平等持有更多批评而年轻群组则对收入不平等有着更为宽容的态度,考虑不同群组中的不同自身利益之后并不能大幅度降低人们对收入不平等的态度上的差异。研究进一步表明,更重要的中介因素是人们对社会公正的信念。     

1906-1908年的郑孝胥与预备立宪公会

考虑到我国未来年度的OD分布预测中的路网构成变化、区域经济布局变动、区域经济增长速度差异等一些具有时变性和特殊性因素，采用在“四阶段法”运量预测基础上改进而成的“三阶段法”进行高速铁路短期客运量预测。首先采用组合预测模型进行趋势运量预测，然后采用多元LOGIT模型进行方式分担，最后采用弹性系数诱增模型进行诱增运量预测。以京沪高铁为例，采用“三阶段法”预测了2014年和2015年京沪高铁本线及跨线单向客流量。     

The consequences of parental labor migration in China for children's emotional wellbeing

Using data from the 2010 wave of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we study the effects of internal migration in China on the emotional wellbeing of children age 10–15. The 2010 CFPS, a national probability sample survey of the Chinese population, includes 3464 children within this age range. We compare five groups: rural children with local registration living with both parents; urban children with local registration living with both parents; children accompanying their migrant parent(s), children left behind with one parent when the other parent goes out to work; and children left behind or sent to live with others when both parents go out to work. We expect the last three groups to be at risk of increased emotional difficulties compared to children living with both parents. We test these expectations using both conventional regression models and community fixed-effects models. The evidence supporting our expectations is very weak and inconsistent, leading us to conclude that in the Chinese context family arrangements have little impact on the emotional wellbeing of children. We conclude by offering some conjectures as to why this is so.     

伊拉克战争以来中国与伊拉克的关系

伊战前中伊两国间保持着长期的友好交往。伊战结束后，中国积极参与了联合国倡导的伊拉克重建，并与美国等西方国家及俄国、阿拉伯国家合作，与伊拉克新政权建立了良好的关系。中国公司也积极参与了伊拉克的经济重建。与战前相比，中伊经济关系发生重大变化，即贸易规模迅速扩大，能源合作的地位上升，中国从贸易顺差变为逆差，而中国公司的投资从一般制造业和建筑承包转向能源和高层次的制造业。中国对伊拉克新政权的外交政策和经济合作对于伊的稳定和发展起到了积极作用，同时保证了中国在伊的权益，在2014年6月以来伊拉克的动荡中，中国和伊拉克共同努力妥善保障了中国的利益。     

Knowledge and Skills of Sexual Abuse Prevention: A Study on School-Aged Children in Beijing,China

To examine the level of child sexual abuse prevention knowledge and skills in a sample of school-aged children, a total of 559 children from first to fifth grade were recruited from one primary school in Beijing, China. Participants were asked to finish a questionnaire surveying their knowledge and skills of child sexual abuse prevention. Results showed that accurate rate of knowledge on child sexual abuse prevention were between 44.0% and 80.0%. Percentage of participants having applied the self-protection skills of “saying ‘no,’” “going away,” and “telling adults” properly in hypothetical situations was 57.4%, 28.3%, and 48.3%, respectively. Third-to-fifth graders had a better performance than first-to-second graders, and girls performed better than boys. Findings suggest that Chinese school-aged children are in need of knowledge and skills related to child sexual abuse prevention, and education programs should be developed as soon as possible.     

三次党内集中学习教育活动的回顾与思考(英文)

21世纪以来,中国共产党相继开展了农村三个代表重要思想学习教育活动,以实践三个代表重要思想为主要内容的保持党员先进性教育活动和深入学习实践科学发展观活动。通过这三次活动,广大党员、干部受到深刻的马克思主义教育,进一步增强了对三个代表重要思想的认识。这三次活动对于在新的历史起点上推进党的建设的伟大工程,具有十分重要的启示意义。     

Deriving Behavior Model Parameters from Survey Data: Self‐Protective Behavior Adoption During the 2009–2010 Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic

In this paper, we demonstrate how public opinion surveys can be designed to collect information pertinent to computational behavior modeling, and we present the results of a public opinion and behavior survey conducted during the 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The results are used to parameterize the Health Belief Model of individual health‐protective decision making. Survey subjects were asked questions about their perceptions of the then‐circulating influenza and attitudes towards two personal protective behaviors: vaccination and avoidance of crowds. We empirically address two important issues in applying the Health Belief Model of behavior to computational infectious disease simulation: (1) the factors dynamically influencing the states of the Health Belief Model variables and (2) the appropriateness of the Health Belief Model in describing self‐protective behavior in the context of pandemic influenza.     

回顾与展望:冷战后的台日关系

冷战后的台日关系经历了李登辉、陈水扁和马英九三个时期。李、陈时期从"台独"政治需要出发,在对日关系上,政治上谋求突破"七二体制",安全上谋求缔结军事同盟。马英九上台后,政治上回归"九二共识",安全上拒做"麻烦制造者",基于主流民意和民族认同,把改善和发展两岸关系作为政策的优先方向,同时强调与日本的"特殊伙伴关系",台日关系由"结盟"走向务实合作。本文的视角立足于冷战后台湾当局的对日政策,据此考察分析国际形势发生深刻变化背景下的台日关系。     

对中国经济运行状况的分析

从经济的投资、消费和出口数据看,中国经济增速确实在下行。为了保持中国经济8%的增速,我们已付出了很高的代价;经过35年的高速增长,在各行各业产能基本过剩的情况下,中国经济增速正在下移。观察1950年代后日本、中国台湾和香港地区经济发展的过程,其经济高速增长后,也是一个台阶又一个台阶地下来。中国不能再靠高投资来推动经济增长。